The New Year is over, and the Spring Festival is coming soon. The peak of Spring Festival transportation has begun, and the consumer market is becoming "booming" day by day. However, the pig market is still "deserted", and the price of live pigs has dropped from New Year's Day (January 1). The price dropped from 17 yuan/kg to 14.46 yuan/kg today (January 17), a drop of 14.94% in just half a month. The price of pigs has dropped very "dramatically".

Let’s take a look at the situation in the piglet market. According to data monitoring from Zhuhaoduo.com, the price of 15kg piglets nationwide on January 17 was 36.98 yuan/kg, which is calculated to be about 500 yuan/head. If we look at the cost price of piglets announced by the group's pig farms, this quotation basically makes no money, and even loses some money. Therefore, some pig farms choose to keep the piglets for fattening, or wait until later in the year. Piglet prices rise.

So, will the price of piglets rise after the new year? Should I buy the dip now? Will there be a loss in raising pigs next year?

First of all, judging from past data, the price of piglets will rise to a certain extent after the new year. Part of this is because farmers will increase their stockings after the new year, and the increase in demand will inevitably drive up the price. Therefore, industry insiders believe that , now the price of piglets is at a relatively low level, which is a good opportunity to buy the bottom.

Secondly, let’s calculate whether we should buy the bottom or not.

If you buy the bottom now, this batch of piglets will be slaughtered roughly in the middle of the year. Calculated based on the cost of piglets of 500 yuan/head, the superimposed feed cost is about 1,300 yuan, the labor cost is about 50 yuan/head, and the remaining water, electricity, The cost of epidemic prevention and other costs is about 200 yuan, and the total cost is 2,050 yuan/head. In other words, buying a pig at the bottom now requires an investment of at least 2,000 yuan.

Having calculated the costs, whether we will lose money by raising pigs next year depends on the market price of pigs. If we add in the cost of dead piglets, the meat production cost of restocking piglets at this time is 8.5 Yuan/jin, that is to say, as long as the price of live pigs is above 8.5 yuan/jin from June to July, farmers will not lose money.

According to predictions by industry insiders, the price of live pigs in mid-2023 may be 9-9.5 yuan/catty. Comparing the two data, there is a high probability that you will not lose money if you buy piglets at the bottom now.

In the author’s opinion, with the continuous changes in the pig market and the intensification of regulation, the price of pigs in 2023 will be relatively stable, and the growth rate will not be as rapid as in the second and third quarters of 2022. The overall pig market is not too bad, and farmers will most likely make money. What do you think?