The position difference represents the increase or decrease in the total position compared with yesterday. For example, if today’s position is 100,000 lots and yesterday was 110,000 lots, then today’s position will be reduced by 10,000 lots, which is expressed as -10000. It has nothing to do with profit or loss.
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Basic indicators of futures: trading volume, open interest and price
The main basic indicators of futures price technical analysis There are opening price, closing price, high price, low price, volume and open interest.
(1) Opening price, the price generated by call auction 5 minutes before the market opens.
(2) Closing price, the price generated by the call auction 5 minutes before the market closes.
(3) The highest price is the highest transaction price on the day.
(4) The lowest price is the lowest transaction price on the day.
(5) Trading volume refers to the number of contracts of a certain commodity futures traded on the exchange within a certain trading period. In the domestic futures market, the sum of buying and selling volumes is used to calculate trading volume.
(6) Open interest refers to the number of futures contracts of a certain commodity that have not been hedged and physically delivered after buying or selling, also known as open interest or short position. The open interest of buyers and sellers is equal, and the open interest volume is just the combined amount of buyers and sellers. If both the buyer and seller are opening new positions, the open contract amount will increase by 2 contracts; if one party is opening a new position and the other is closing the position, the open contract amount will remain unchanged; if both the buyer and seller are closing position, the open contract volume is reduced by 2 contracts. When the number of open positions and the number of closed positions are equal next time, the amount of open positions will not change.
Since the open interest volume is the number of contracts that have not yet been hedged and settled between the time when the futures contract starts trading and the time when the open interest volume is calculated, the greater the open interest volume. , the greater the sum of the closing volume and physical delivery volume before expiration of the contract, the greater the trading volume. Therefore, analyzing changes in open interest can infer the flow of funds in the futures market. An increase in open interest indicates that funds are flowing into the futures market; conversely, it indicates that funds are flowing out of the futures market.
3. The relationship between trading volume, open interest and price
Changes in trading volume and open interest will have an impact on futures prices, and changes in futures prices will also Cause changes in trading volume and open interest. Therefore, analyzing the changes of the three is helpful to correctly predict futures price trends.
1. Increases in trading volume, open interest, and rising prices indicate that new buyers are making large purchases, and prices may continue to rise in the near future.
2. The trading volume and open interest volume decreased, and the price increased, indicating that short sellers replenished their positions in large quantities. The price will rise in the short term, but it may fall back soon.
3. The trading volume increases and the price rises, but the open interest volume decreases, indicating that both short sellers and short buyers are closing their positions in large numbers, and the price will fall soon.
4. The increase in trading volume and open interest and the decrease in price indicate that short sellers are selling a large number of contracts. The price may fall in the short term, but if the selling is excessive, it may cause the price to rise.
5. The trading volume and open interest have decreased, and the price has fallen, indicating that a large number of short buyers are eager to sell goods to close their positions, and the price will continue to fall in the short term.
6. The increase in trading volume, open interest, and price decline indicate that short sellers are taking advantage of short sellers to close their positions, causing the price to fall, and they are continuing to replenish and close their positions to make profits, and the price may turn to rebound.
It can be seen from the above analysis that under normal circumstances, if the trading volume, open interest and price are in the same direction, the price trend can continue for a period of time; if they are in the opposite direction to the price, the price trend will Possibly diverted. Of course, this requires further detailed analysis based on different price patterns.