In recent ten years, the paper industry has experienced a complete periodic change. From the big cycle, the industry has experienced complete fluctuations since 2007.
After experiencing an average annual growth of 9.4% during 2002-20 12, the demand for both cultural paper for teaching supplements and packaging paper mainly used for consumer goods has bid farewell to the period of rapid growth and entered a mature stage with stability as the mainstay.
Since the second half of 20 19, both the PPI index of papermaking and the finished product inventory of paper products have fallen to the bottom of the historical cycle, and the replenishment market of the current industrial chain may have started.
At this stage, it has entered an industrial adjustment period with the theme of "environmental protection, raw material conversion and production efficiency".
In the cost composition of papermaking enterprises, raw materials account for 60%-70%, followed by energy sources such as hydropower and coal, accounting for about 10%- 15%, and the rest are other costs such as labor, depreciation and amortization.
In terms of supply and demand, capacity planning is the core index of supply expectation, which will directly affect the price trend in the medium and long term, while capacity utilization will affect the output and profit of enterprises due to changes in price and operating rate. The demand side will generally change due to fluctuations in the economic cycle.
The competitive pattern of paper industry: high barriers, leading players take the first Mover advantage.
Because papermaking is an industry with high entry threshold (heavy asset investment, etc.). ) and it is difficult to re-enter after quitting, and the number of players in the industry is decreasing.
The CR4 of nine dragons paper, Paper, Sun Paper and Chenming Paper has reached 28.88% at 20 19, which is 1.30 percentage points higher than 18.
Compared with the CR4 of American paper industry in 1972, which was 24%, and the CR4 after "ten-year environmental protection legislation" was 29%, there is still room for further improvement.
Chenming Paper has the largest pulp production capacity in China, with a pulp production capacity of about 4.3 million tons. At present, the self-pulping capacity has matched the self-owned papermaking capacity, and it is the only papermaking enterprise in China that realizes the overall self-sufficiency of wood pulp. At the same time, the second phase of Huanggang forestry-pulp-paper integration project started construction in February 2020, and the annual output of newly-built pulp is about10.05 million tons.
Sun Paper has a capacity of 800,000 tons of dissolved pulp, nearly 6,543.8+0,000 tons of chemical mechanical pulp, and nearly 6,543.8+0,654.38+0,000 tons of new fiber raw materials that can replace waste paper. Its forestry-pulp-paper integration projects in Laos and Beihai, Guangxi are under construction step by step, which will greatly improve the company's pulp self-sufficiency rate after the project is put into production.
Bohui Paper's own pulp production capacity is about 800,000 tons/year. With the entry of APP Group, the company may obtain better quality wood pulp and enjoy rich cost dividends through the forest land upstream of APP and abundant raw material resources at home and abroad.
According to the statistics of Zhuo Chuang Information, from 20021onwards, the new pulp production capacity in China accounts for about 52% of the new pulp production capacity in the world. Pulping capacity will become a long-term competitive barrier in the paper industry.
The new pulp production capacity of paper enterprises will be put into production one after another, and large domestic paper enterprises will obtain low-cost pulp, and their profitability will be further enhanced. Chen Ming, Sun and Bohui, the integrated production mode of forestry, pulp and paper, have lower cost advantages.
From the perspective of regional structure, the production bases close to raw materials and ports are convenient to transport, and the location layout is more critical for large paper enterprises. Among them, the sun is mainly distributed in Shandong and Guangxi, and Bohui is distributed in Shandong and Jiangsu. After being merged into Guangjin, the layout of the base tends to be perfect, while the national layout of Shan Ying, Jiulong and Chenming is relatively perfect.
Paper industry chain: long chain and heavy assets
As a typical midstream manufacturing industry, the paper industry presents the characteristics of "long chain, heavy assets and diverse demands". From plant fiber to end consumer goods, the biggest feature is circular development.
From upstream to downstream, the industrial chain can be divided into pulping, papermaking and paper products.
Upstream raw materials: mainly waste paper and wood pulp.
Paper industry can be divided into pulp department and waste paper department according to different raw materials.
The pulp system is mainly wood pulp, and China's wood pulp mainly depends on imports, accounting for about 2/3; Waste paper is made of waste paper, of which 2/3 is national waste, and external waste accounts for 1/3, mainly including American waste, European waste and Japanese waste.
Waste paper products are mainly wrapping paper, and wood pulp products include household paper, cultural paper and white cardboard.
Waste paper is mainly divided into three categories: waste yellow board paper, waste page paper and waste newspaper. At present, the conversion rate of waste paper in China is about 80%. Waste paper is mainly used as raw materials for cardboard and corrugated paper, accounting for 45% and 35% respectively, while whiteboard paper accounts for 16% and newsprint accounts for at least 4%.
Using waste paper to produce cardboard/corrugated board/whiteboard/newsprint, which is mainly used for downstream packaging needs; The pulp is made of wood pulp, 2/3 of which is imported wood pulp, and13 is for personal use. It is used to produce base paper for cultural paper, mainly coated paper and offset paper, for the printing of books, periodicals and magazines.
During the period of 2065 438+07-2020, the import quota of foreign garbage that can provide high-quality and cheap fiber will be reduced by 30-40% every year, and the import of foreign garbage will be completely banned in China in 20021year.
In 2020, the import of waste paper will continue to decrease to 6 million tons, and zero import will be achieved by the end of 2020; Assuming that the raw materials needed for newsprint are reserved, it is estimated that the annual import of foreign garbage will remain at about 2 million tons in 20021year and thereafter.
In the future, in the raw material structure of China's paper industry, national waste and wood pulp will be gradually upgraded.
Combing the industrial chain framework of waste paper;
Source: Zhuo Chuang Information
In the consumption structure of wood pulp, double-sided paper and household paper account for 32%, followed by double-sided coated paper and white cardboard, accounting for 17% and 16% respectively. Cardboard is mostly made of waste paper, and the amount of wood pulp only accounts for 4%.
Among the downstream paper types, the gross profit margin of cardboard and white cardboard is relatively high, reaching about 25%, while the gross profit margin of household paper is the lowest, only about 1 1.75%.
Combing the industrial chain framework of wood pulp;
Source: Zhuo Chuang Information
Mid-stream of papermaking industry chain: papermaking link
The papermaking process in the middle reaches can be divided into four sub-industries according to different product categories: newsprint, cultural paper, wrapping paper and special paper. The first three kinds of industrial paper are used to make cartons and cartons, so they are called industrial paper because they need to be reprocessed. However, household paper belongs to non-industrial paper because of its consumption attribute.
Cultural paper has a high concentration, and the packaging paper industry has accelerated the reshuffle. According to the data of Zhuo Chuang Information, the concentration of CR4 in coated paper and white cardboard is relatively high, with coated paper reaching 87. 10% and white cardboard reaching 57.2%. However, in recent ten years, the concentration of CR4 in paperboard and corrugated paper decreased significantly year by year.
On the other hand, the cost advantage of leading enterprises is the core of long-term profit, and the market structure will be further optimized under the impetus of industry barriers. The new capacity of cultural paper is relatively small, so the pattern tends to be stable.
Downstream of papermaking industry: involving packaging, printing and other fields.
Downstream involves packaging, printing and many other industries, with diverse needs and widely used paper products.
From the demand side, cardboard and corrugated paper are mostly used for packaging food, beverages and daily necessities, so they are directly affected by retail demand; Cultural paper is mainly divided into coated paper and offset paper, which is mainly used for printing newspapers, magazines and textbooks.
Source: China Report Network, CICC.
The pattern of white cardboard industry is stable and the concentration is high. CR3 is about 85%.
According to Zhuo Chuang's data, in 20 19, the top four companies in China's white cardboard production capacity were APP, Bohui Paper, Chenming Paper and Global Sun, with the production capacity reaching 35521520410.5 million tons respectively, and the CR4 of the industry reached 85%.
On June 5438+1 October1day, 2020, Bohui Paper announced that the tender offer for Guangjin Paper had been successfully completed, which meant that the market share of the white cardboard leader increased from 33% to 52%(APP32%+ Bohui 20%). After APP acquired Bohui Paper, the paper classification pattern is the best, which will make it firmly grasp the pricing power of the industry and boost the overall profit of the industry.
In the future, with the consistency of the interests of giant paper mills and the steady expansion of the downstream demand market, the price of white cardboard is expected to increase in the future, and the capacity utilization rate of the industry and the profitability of leading companies will be further improved.
20 19 white cardboard competition pattern;
Source: Zhuo Chuang Information, Wind, Wanlian Securities.
CR4 of the paperboard is about 46%. After removing external waste, it is more difficult to obtain long fibers represented by American waste, and the structure of high-end box plates is concentrated.
Market structure of 20 19 paperboard;
Source: Zhuo Chuang Information, China Paper Yearbook.
However, whether it is box-board corrugated paper with waste paper as the main raw material or cultural paper and white cardboard with wood pulp as the main raw material, the shortage and recycling of raw materials will become a trend. The integrated layout to the upstream is expected to help leading enterprises further lay a cost advantage and expand market share.
As a cyclical industry, the core index of paper industry is price data, including paper price and upstream raw material price.
Because the price of paper is influenced by many factors, such as industry supply and demand, raw material price, competition pattern, etc., by tracking high-frequency daily paper price data, raw material price data and industry supply and demand, and analyzing the reasons for price changes, we can effectively grasp the stage of the industry and help to judge the future trend of the industry.
Since June, 2020 165438+ 10, the price of pulp has continued to strengthen, and the futures market price has been rising. According to snowball's interview, the reasons for the high cycle of this paper are also multiple reasons, including:
1. Demand for food-grade white cardboard brought by plastic restriction; 2. It is forbidden to increase the cost caused by foreign garbage; 3. The large-scale transfer of manufacturing orders to China has brought about a sharp increase in the consumption of packaging paper at home and abroad;
4. The consumption of paper brought by large-scale home office in developed countries has increased; 5. Small and medium-sized paper mills keep withdrawing due to environmental protection requirements and losses at the bottom of the cycle; 6. Industry merger and acquisition, the improvement of industry concentration and the improvement of industry competition environment; 7. Global money supply has brought about an increase in commodity prices.
Although the maturity of China's paper industry is lower than that of other countries in the world, China is currently in the process of de-capacity and concentration improvement, and the demand side is still in the rising channel of steady improvement. Therefore, the core driving force to promote industry growth in the future comes from the supply side. Only by optimizing the pattern of supply side and coordinating with the steady improvement of demand side will the industry gradually move towards more stable maturity.