I have been busy recently, and I have already resumed work on February 3rd, because there is no rest in the external market, and then our domestic securities and futures will officially open on February 3rd.

So recently, I have maintained 12% attention in terms of investment and my beloved automobile industry. Now I am a bystander and strategic investor in the automobile manufacturing industry, with a little bit of media personality, to see to what extent the automobile manufacturing industry will be affected by the COVID-19 epidemic.

I can tell you the conclusion first, because I will share the research results of my own investment strategy team with you later.

The conclusion is that the automobile industry is suffering an unprecedented blow, and the impact of this epidemic will drag the pace of the automobile industry (whether at the manufacturing end or at the aftermarket end) to around September this year. It is optimistic that it will be better in September, and cars will sell better, but it cannot be said that it will fully recover. Because the epidemic has not only hit the domestic production chain again, COVID-19 has become popular all over the world, and it can even be said that we are about to go to the state of EOP, while foreign countries are about to go to the state of SOP.

All raw materials related to the automobile market: hot coils, cold coils, rubber, plastics, glass, etc., will be suppressed by unprecedented prices.

All stocks related to automobiles, both inside and outside, are not recommended to be bullish, and the bearish logic should be maintained until September this year.

In fact, many people have refuted me that there will be a retaliatory rebound in the automobile industry immediately. I said there will be, but not immediately. The rebound in automobile consumption may come as early as September, which is still a cautious and optimistic prediction.

you should know that from the macro-economic point of view, your car is not the only commodity in this market. The total productivity and consumption power of the people can't be made up in these two lost months. In these two lost months, the industrial chain experienced a big escape, and there were gaps everywhere. Some companies with broken capital chains went bankrupt directly, and even the time for retaliatory rebound could not last. The macro-economy is like a train, a time node. Just like the recent wave of large-scale water release by the central bank, it finally saved the stock market with a low opening of 8%. Then what? I won't say much about the rest, because retail investors (leeks) have told me that China's economy has recovered and the bull market has arrived, hehe.

well, let's talk about the opportunity, the purpose is to let friends who understand it, in the next time, during this period of economic recovery, grasp the real core points of the automobile industry and make investment reference.

below, I'll post some new energy research reports of my company's macro strategy team (of course, not all of them can be posted). The writing style may not be my writing style, but the results of my staff's investigation:

Prospects and opportunities of raw materials for new energy batteries-nickel

1. China plays an important role in the future of electric vehicles in the world. Under the leadership of Tesla's first localization, almost all these European and American electric vehicle companies have to go through China to produce cars, and China has a complete industrial chain of new energy vehicles, which is not available in any country in the world.

As stated in the oil price report in 218, "China indirectly controls the electric vehicle market through almost monopolized battery production". Two years ago, Oilprice magazine wrote: "European automobile production may soon be transferred to China, and the European market should start to feel uneasy about it." "This will have a major impact on the region. For a long time, companies such as Volkswagen, BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Renault have been the economic pillars of the region. "

at that time, two-thirds of the global supply of lithium-ion batteries originated from China. Lithium-ion battery is the most commonly used battery for standard electric vehicles. "In addition, these batteries are extremely valuable, accounting for 4% of the car's value, which is really shocking. As far as the current situation is concerned, Europe can't compete with China in the production of lithium-ion batteries. In fact, at present, the entire African continent is estimated to have only 1% market share. " "For European car companies, it is easy to transfer the production of electric vehicles to China."

that is to say, it was reported this week that in order to make Elon? It should come as no surprise that Musk will need China's participation to fulfill his promise to provide affordable and realizable mass markets and ordinary consumers for electric vehicles. The problem comes down to the battery again. However, the problem this time is not lithium, but cobalt.

According to Reuters, "Electric vehicle manufacturers usually use Nickel Cobalt Aluminum Battery (NCA) or Nickel Manganese Cobalt Battery (NMC) on passenger cars because of their higher energy density, which is very important to determine how far electric vehicles can travel on a single charge." However, cobalt is one of the main reasons why electric vehicle batteries are so expensive, accounting for 4% of the car value.

Tesla has moved most of their production to China, where they are gradually getting rid of their dependence on cobalt. Reuters reported this week that "Tesla's negotiations to use cobalt-free CATL batteries in cars produced in its China factory are at an advanced stage. Cobalt is one of the most expensive metals in electric vehicle batteries. " Instead, the factory will use Ferrous lithium phosphate (LFP) batteries, which will be "two digits cheaper than the existing batteries".

Tesla's share price

The future opportunity lies not in expensive cobalt, but in nickel, all raw materials for automobile batteries are inseparable from nickel. Even in the future, most battery manufacturers will increase the amount of nickel and reduce the amount of cobalt when manufacturing batteries.

second, nickel, like platinum and palladium, can absorb a lot of hydrogen during passivation, and the smaller the particle size, the greater the absorption! The important salts of nickel are nickel sulfate and nickel chloride. Similar to iron and cobalt, it is stable to water and air at room temperature and can resist alkaline corrosion, so nickel crucible can be used to melt alkaline substances in the laboratory. Nickel can be dissolved in dilute acid. Unlike iron, cobalt and nickel react violently with concentrated nitric acid, but slowly with dilute nitric acid.

well-known domestic enterprises: Zhongjin Lingnan, Taigang Stainless, China Nickel Resources, Guiyan Platinum Industry, Gemei, Keliyuan, Jinchuan Group, Xinjiang Nonferrous Metals Industry (Group) Fukang Smelter, Xinjiang Xinxin, Jiangli Technology, Hanwang Group, etc.

well-known foreign companies: MMCNorilskNickel of Russia, ValeSA of Brazil, XstrataPlc of Britain, AngloAmericanPlc, BHPBillitonLtd of Australia, MinaraResourcesLtd, Sumitomo Metal Mining Co., ErametSA and Serit International Corp.

Third, nickel has good plasticity, corrosion resistance and magnetic properties! Therefore, it is mainly used in steel, nickel-based alloys, electroplating and batteries, and is widely used in various military manufacturing industries such as airplanes and radars, civil machinery manufacturing and electroplating industries.

Specific uses include:

1. Nickel has good corrosion resistance, high temperature resistance, rust resistance and other properties! Therefore, it is widely used in steel fields such as stainless steel and alloy steel. In the application of stainless steel, the consumption of nickel is the largest. Stainless steel containing nickel can not only resist the corrosion of atmosphere, steam and water, but also resist the corrosion of acid, alkali and salt.

2. The participation of nickel can improve the strength of alloy steel and keep its good plasticity and toughness. Nickel-alloy steel is mainly used in the manufacture of acid-resistant towers, medical instruments and daily necessities in chemical production, as well as in machinery manufacturing, transportation and military industry, such as rebuilding bridges and building warships.

3. Used for electroplating, a durable and corrosion-resistant surface layer is covered on the substrate of steel and other metal materials, and its corrosion resistance is higher than that of galvanized layer. The processing capacity of electroplating nickel is second only to electroplating zinc, and its consumption accounts for about 1% of the total nickel production.

4. Used as a chemical power supply, raw materials for making Ni-MH batteries and Ni-Cd batteries. Ni-MH batteries in the world are mainly produced by China and Japanese enterprises, accounting for more than 95% of the global output, of which more than 7% are produced in China. The enterprises of Ni-MH batteries in China mainly include Ultraman, Haopeng, BYD, Huanyu, Keliyuan, Likexing, Sanpu, Disheng, Sanjie, Quanneng and Greep. Japanese companies Matsushita, Tangqian and Sanyo have transferred the production of small-sized Ni-MH batteries to China. Large Ni-MH batteries for HEV are mainly produced in Japan, and the manufacturers are Primearth Electric Vehicle Energy Company (PEVE) and Sanyo Electric. Due to the merger of Panasonic and Sanyo, Panasonic's Hunan factory was sold to China Keliyuan. Therefore, large-scale Ni-MH batteries have been mainly produced by Panasonic.

5. Nickel composite can be used as a catalyst for hydrogenation and methane synthesis in petrochemical industry, and its advantage is that it is not easy to be poisoned by H2S and SO2. Nickel compounds can be used to make pigments and dyes. Nickel can also be made into new ceramics such as nickel ferrite and nickel-zinc-iron, which can be used as the core of transformer and the antenna of radio. Ultrafine nickel powder is often used as a catalyst in chemical industry. Nickel is magnetic and can be attracted by magnets. The alloy made of aluminum, cobalt and nickel can be used to manufacture electromagnetic cranes.

fourth, nickel is the basic component of batteries, including those installed on mobile phones, laptops and hybrid cars. Based on the optimistic prospect of the market for the long-term battery market, many large mining enterprises have joined the ranks of resource competition.

BHP Billiton (BHP Billiton) continues to retain its Nickel located in western Australia. West Nickel mine project, think nickel? West shows potential high returns. Glencore is also mining nickel ore to produce metal by-products. As a large nickel mine country, Indonesia has become the focus of many mining enterprises. Last year, Indonesia's nickel production ranked first in the world. Pacific? Rim? Cobalt? Corporation is currently conducting exploration projects in Indonesia and actively developing nickel resources in Indonesia. Indonesia and China are not far apart. At present, as China dominates the electric vehicle market, neighboring countries are eager to provide the necessary raw materials for China's electric vehicle industry. Indonesia naturally does not want to miss this opportunity. In fact, Indonesia's goal is not just to become a resource base. Indonesian Minister of Industry Airlangga? Hartarto proposed to build Indonesia into a regional manufacturing power and turn its raw materials into consumer goods. This move may provide opportunities for mining companies that have begun to open up the Indonesian market.

since the nickel mine was heavily hyped by the internal and external funds in 219, it has entered a reasonable value range, and I think the price is not very high, and there is not much room for further development.

according to some materials of my own team's macro research report on commodities and industries, I can give a view of buying nickel (Shanghai nickel contract, London LME nickel contract) for medium and long-term investment. In the recovery period of the next few months, new energy vehicles will break out in the second spring and occupy a major position in the subsequent automobile development.

London LME nickel index

Finally, I would like to send a few words to friends from all walks of life who are suffering from the epidemic recently:

Maybe your own economy is under serious threat, and you may have nothing left in this epidemic, but please find a direction suitable for your rebound in desperation. Nietzsche has a famous saying: "What can't kill me will only make me stronger." Just as our human bones will become stronger under the load and pressure, this is a kind of "anti-fragility"! How to survive in this black swan and find traces of spring in the cold winter can refer to the above suggestions and viewpoints.

This article comes from the author of Chejia, car home, and does not represent car home's standpoint.