For example, in the past two decades, if China people didn't buy a house, they might have missed a wave of asset appreciation opportunities. Similarly, in the United States, if you don't allocate some stocks, you will miss a big wave of asset appreciation opportunities.
If Japan allocates real estate, it may go bankrupt. Japan is also dominated by stock allocation in the near future.
But no matter what is configured, it is mainly based on asset security. Only assets that can be allocated in their own names are safe, otherwise it is tantamount to gambling, and the risks can be imagined. Note that assets in other people's names cannot be called assets unless they are absolutely reliable. This is basically the first principle of asset allocation.
Bitcoin can be counted as an asset mainly because it can be configured in its own name and has complete control.
In addition, in all developed countries, the trend or direction of asset appreciation is mainly from real estate to financial assets. However, there are many kinds of gold financial products, including tens of thousands of stocks, bond funds and so on. Futures are not assets, but financial instruments.
Why should we shift from real estate to financial assets? The reason is not complicated. Look at how these things happen:
1, the house is a long-term variety, which will keep rising at first, but once it is transferred, it will not rise for a long time, such as Japan in that year. Only a few first-tier cities can maintain high housing prices, and it must be the first-tier luxury houses of the rich that can continue to rise. The houses that ordinary people can reach will not rise. Look at new york now.
2. Once the house does not rise, the rate of return is very low, which is actually not cost-effective. Mature real estate, such as Japanese, houses and cars, will depreciate when they get old, and it will depreciate a little every year, which will be the normal state of China housing market in the future. If the income is not high, it will depreciate, and sometimes you will be charged property tax. Those who have a house will not only become house slaves but also become leeks. Now China people have not realized this. Buying a house now mostly belongs to the habitual thinking of the poor. A major feature of the thinking of the poor is that conditions have changed their views or previous views, which is difficult to change.
The birth rate is always declining in the process of development, and the consequences will be more serious in China due to family planning. Limited population flows to first-tier cities, and the population of most cities has dropped sharply. In fact, it has already started to rob people before it has been developed, and family planning is not willing to quit. Building capacity is getting stronger and stronger, and there are more and more houses. If you still believe in houses, you are superstitious, which is tantamount to carving a boat for a sword or stealing a column.
4. School district housing is a special phenomenon. 16, 17 The baby boom in China after the release of the second child will start primary school next year, which will lead to the final madness of the school district in the next two years. After that, the birth cliff will become more and more abundant. If you still can't understand this, it is pure natural leek, which will only be harvested by others.
In the process of development, young people are more inclined to cherish freedom. It is more convenient to rent a house when the total number of houses is enough, and they can move at will, but the demand for buying a house is reduced.
6. Houses are also restricted and restricted by the government, and a large number of talented rooms and affordable housing are impacted by supply.
7. Another point that will become more and more important in the future is government subsidies. We know that the more developed the government, the more severe the subsidies. The direction of subsidies for houses, such as affordable housing, is supply-side subsidies to keep house prices from rising. However, with the development process, finance is becoming more and more important. The main direction of subsidies in various countries is finance, such as QE, bond purchase and demand-side subsidies. Japan is more direct, the central bank directly goes to the market to buy stocks (buy funds to let funds buy stocks). If you buy a house, the consequences of government subsidies will only make you lose money, and only financial assets can enjoy government subsidies (more often called bailout).
8. Last year, the United States subsidized trillions of dollars for the epidemic, almost all of which went to the stock market. The consequence of Japanese subsidies is that the government becomes the major shareholder of almost all listed companies, and the central bank directly nationalizes the shares. At best, this is socialism. Generally speaking, the central bank directly subsidizes listed companies and shareholders. In the worst case, it can be said that the central bank specializes in this work and can rise as much as it wants.
So now, do you know your future asset allocation?