On the trading market of Shanghai Gold Exchange on 202 1 year 1 month 12, the gold T+D turnover was 40.278 tons;
Gold T+D closed up 0.78% to 387.45 yuan/gram, with a turnover of 40.278 tons and a turnover of154937548200 yuan. The delivery direction is "overpayment and short delivery", and the delivery volume is 14.680 tons.
Mini gold T+D closed up 0.93% to 388 yuan/gram, with a turnover of 10.5078 tons and a turnover of 405 1924956 yuan. The delivery direction is "overpayment", and the delivery volume is 6 1.720 tons.
Silver T+D closed down 0.8 1% to 5243 yuan/kg, with a turnover of 13949.208 tons and a turnover of 7 1883062338 yuan. The settlement direction was "overpayment" and the settlement volume was 423.060 tons.
The market is divided on the future prospect of the US dollar. In the short term, the gold price will be maintained, and Morgan Stanley will no longer bear the US dollar. In Morgan Stanley's view, the short-term dollar seems to be bottoming out.
Matthew Hornbach, head of global macro strategy at Morgan Stanley, said that considering the new changes in US fiscal policy, monetary policy and inflation prospects, the real interest rate in the United States has entered the process of bottoming out, and it is no longer attractive to continue betting on a weaker dollar at this time.
Analysts, including Hornbach, also mentioned that when the probability of new fiscal stimulus in the United States is rising and the US dollar transaction is crowded, our position on the US dollar becomes neutral. As for when the bull will turn, the investment bank said that it is still looking for the corresponding signal.
Morgan Stanley said that there are two main factors behind this change of view. First of all, the Democratic Party won the Georgia Senate runoff election, which means that the United States may launch a new fiscal stimulus plan as high as 1 trillion dollars as early as the first quarter; Second, the Fed may begin to discuss the normalization of monetary policy, which may officially begin as early as June.
Morgan Stanley said that under the influence of these two factors, the market's expectation that US interest rates will remain low and thus curb the rise of the US dollar will gradually change. With the focus turning to the new fiscal policy of the United States, we believe that the real interest rate in the United States and the dollar are in the process of bottoming out.
Some economists firmly believe that in the long run, the dollar will plummet. Stephen roach, a senior researcher at Yale University and former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, believes that the US market overemphasizes the role of the Federal Reserve, and keeping interest rates at zero level can prevent the economy from falling into recession again.
He said that this makes the market blindly confident. From political turmoil to the possibility of a double dip, to the fragmented V-shaped recovery, the market seems to care nothing about all this. Under the influence of the surge of cases in COVID-19 and the continuous blockade, the US economy is once again in a downturn. He estimated that in the first quarter, the gross domestic product of the United States may drop by single digits.
He said: We saw that the retail sales of consumers unexpectedly dropped by 5,438+01in June, and consumer confidence was weak. Then the unemployment data released in 5,438 unexpectedly dropped sharply. The economic recession is happening before our eyes.
Roach said that at present, the US government's additional epidemic assistance is crucial. However, he warned that this will have consequences, and the budget deficit, which is currently at a record level, will further widen, which will put further downward pressure on domestic savings, current accounts and the US dollar. The dollar has been depreciating sharply in the past nine months.
I really think the US dollar index will fall by 65,438+05% to 20% this year, which not only reflects the current account deficit, but also reflects the strength of the euro, Roach said on Monday. Most importantly, the Fed keeps interest rates at zero.
The trade problems in Europe and America have added some hedging support to the market. The United States Customs and Border Protection announced on June 1 1 that the United States will impose tariffs on aircraft parts, wine and other commodities produced in France and Germany from June 12.
The U.S. Customs and Border Protection announced on the same day that, according to the previous decision of the U.S. Trade Representative to revise the list of goods related to the US-Europe aviation subsidy dispute, the United States will impose a tariff of 15% on some aircraft parts produced in France and Germany and a tariff of 25% on some wines produced in France and Germany. The new tariff will take effect on 65,438+02.
On February 30th last year, the Office of the United States Trade Representative issued a statement at 65438, saying that when the European Union imposed tariffs on American goods exported to Europe under the authorization of the World Trade Organization, it referred to the trade data during the period when the trade volume fell sharply due to the COVID-19 epidemic, resulting in more American goods being covered by the tariffs imposed by the European Union. To this end, the United States is "forced" to make adjustments and will impose tariffs on some goods produced in France and Germany.
The dispute over aviation subsidies between the United States and Europe began in 2004. The WTO ruled that both the United States and the European Union have the problem of providing illegal subsidies to their respective aviation enterprises.
From 20 19 to 10, the WTO authorized the United States to take retaliatory measures such as increasing tariffs on about $7.5 billion of EU goods and services exported to the United States every year. On June 5438+ 10, 2020, the WTO authorized the EU to impose tariffs on goods and services from the United States not exceeding $3.99 billion per year.
Fed officials hinted that it is expected that reducing bond purchases and raising interest rates will be advanced, which is not good for gold prices. Although Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Clarida predicted last Friday that the Fed would not start to reduce its asset purchases in 20021,on June 5438+ 10/1,a number of Fed officials, including Atlanta Fed President and Dallas Fed President, predicted that the US economy would recover strongly in the second half of 20021. In addition, Bostic, president of the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank, believes that interest rates will not increase until at least 2023. He predicted that it may be advanced to the middle of 2022.
65438+1October 1 1, Fed officials said that more financial support and large-scale distribution of vaccines may help the US economy recover strongly in the second half of 2026, laying the foundation for the discussion on reducing the scale of debt purchases before the end of the year.
Richmond Fed President Balding said in an interview on the same day that it is predicted that the US economy will recover strongly in the second half of the year. The question now is how to spend this difficult period in the first half of the year.
Last month, the Federal Reserve hinted that the interest rate would remain close to zero at least until 2023, and said that it would continue to buy bonds at the rate of $654.38+020 billion per month until the US employment and inflation targets made "substantial further progress".
Bostic, president of Atlanta Federal Reserve, said that I am open to the possibility of reducing the scale of bond purchases by the end of 20021. This will largely depend on the epidemic situation and the distribution of vaccines.
Dallas Fed President Kaplan also said later in the day that he hoped that the US economy would rebound in an all-round way, at least making it possible for 202 1 to start discussing reducing the scale of bond purchases later.
Kaplan said, I don't want to predict when we can achieve this goal now, especially when we are still in an epidemic crisis, but I hope it is 202 1. Kaplan also said that he expects the US economy to grow by about 5% in 20021year.
Baldin, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, also refused to predict the specific date, but was optimistic about the economic prospects of the United States. He also admitted that the continuing epidemic crisis at the beginning of 20021will continue to weaken the growth momentum of the American economy. But he also said that financial support and rising savings rate will provide support for the US economy.
Fed officials stressed that the message of reducing the size of bond purchases will be well conveyed in advance to avoid the soaring yield of US Treasury bonds. Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Clarida said on Friday that although the US economy is expected to strengthen, he does not expect the Fed to start reducing its asset purchases on 20021.
Gold price inflation trading is heating up, and the future prospects are still supported. Inflation has become a concern of more and more people. On Monday night, the new debt king Gunrak said that the CPI of the United States will reach 3% in May and June. If this happens, inflation will really change the rules of the game.
Jason Tillberg, an analyst at Seekingalpha, made the same point in an article over the weekend. He thinks the inflation rate may soar to 3% in the coming months.
Jason Tillberg pointed out that inflation should have risen a long time ago when the debt of the United States rose sharply. In 2020, the total debt increased substantially, with a year-on-year growth rate of over 9% in the second and third quarters of last year. However, inflation is still very moderate.
He believes that there are two main factors that will keep inflation low in the United States for most of 2020. On the one hand, the demand for most goods and services has fallen sharply. On the other hand, commodity prices fell in the same period, and the US dollar strengthened year-on-year in spring and summer of 2020.
He also pointed out that whether inflation in the United States can rise this year depends on two factors. First, whether the dollar will continue to weaken; On the other hand, whether commodity prices will continue to rise.
Jason Tillberg reviewed the inflation performance in the past decades and found that the fluctuation of inflation is closely related to the US dollar and the cost of production inputs (raw material prices).
Jason Tillberg pointed out that today, the dollar is weakening and commodity prices are picking up. From the historical experience, this just meets the two most critical factors of rising inflation. He believes that from the spring of 20021year, the United States will face inflationary pressure brought about by the gradual increase in commodity prices, and the weakening of the US dollar will also aggravate inflationary pressure.
Goldman Sachs also said on Monday that the price of Brent crude oil is expected to reach $65/barrel this summer due to the tight oil market.
Morgan Stanley, a large wall street investment bank, also believes that inflation will soon get out of control. Chetan Ahya, head of global economy at Morgan Stanley, predicts that the global economy will begin to show a V-shaped recovery, and the liquidity of investment during the recession will change the dynamic performance of inflation.
Last year, the market generally underestimated the rebound of economic growth and overestimated the inhibitory effect of the epidemic on inflation. However, this year, the market underestimated the rising space of economic growth and inflation.
Chetan Ahya also said that since the estimated 5-year /5-year inflation swap rate and 5-year breakeven inflation reached their highest levels in two years respectively, inflation may be out of control for only a few months.
Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley's chief American economist, predicts that the annual inflation rate of the US core consumer price index (PCE) will be 2% by the end of 20021and will continue to exceed 2% from 2022. In the near future, the inflation prospect of the United States faces the risk of another outbreak of COVID-19 virus, which may limit economic activities and inflationary pressure.
Zentner said that in the short term, investors will see two additional risks: First, inflation may not be as mild as people expected. Secondly, if the supply side is more flexible than people think, it may help curb inflation, but it also risks exacerbating asset bubbles.
The slow progress of vaccination in the United States affects the future prospects of the United States and supports the price of gold. According to the data of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in June 1 1 day, nearly 25.5 million doses of vaccines have been distributed in various states in the United States. At present, nearly 9 million people have been vaccinated, but the vaccination rate is only 35.3% of the total number of vaccines distributed, and the vaccination progress is still slow.
In this regard, American public health experts and the media said that the US federal government has made too many promises on the issue of vaccination, and the state governments lacking resources and policy support are helpless about vaccination.
American public health officials and experts say that at the current rate, it will take at least a few years for the United States to achieve the previous goals of the federal government. There are many problems in the distribution and vaccination of vaccines in the United States, while the federal government of the United States only cares about distribution, regardless of the follow-up work such as distribution and vaccination. State governments and health departments are too busy treating the surge of confirmed cases to take care of vaccination, which leads to the slow progress of vaccination.
The former director of the US Food and Drug Administration said that the current vaccine distribution problem will develop into a supply problem in two or three weeks, and their federal government should probably solve the distribution problem now. There are still 40 million doses of vaccine on the shelves, and we still have 50 million Americans over 65. We can vaccinate these people more quickly.
In addition, some American media claimed that the number of confirmed cases in COVID-19 increased by 2.2 million only after 202 1 0. Compared with the growth rate of epidemic cases in the United States and the backward status of vaccination in the United States, vaccination in the United States is difficult to play a role in a short time.
The dean of the School of Public Health at Brown University said that the question is when the epidemic will stop. Two things caused our pain. The first point is that our federal government has completely given up controlling the epidemic, and the president still has no response. The second point is that some people use the epidemic to split the politics of our country, and masks are one of them. Wearing a mask has become a political symbol.
American political risks increase market risk aversion to support gold prices. "We will take urgent action because this president is an imminent threat." According to the order of Speaker of the US House of Representatives and Democrat Pelosi, the Democratic Party is prepared to force President Trump to step down early on two fronts this week.
On Monday morning 1 1 local time, Democrats in the House of Representatives officially announced the resolution to impeach Trump, accusing him of "inciting rebellion" in the riots in the US Congress last week.
Democrats in the House of Representatives are also preparing to give Vice President Burns an ultimatum on June 5438+0 1, asking him to use the 25th Amendment of the US Constitution to remove Trump within 24 hours. People close to Trump told the media that the president had no plans to resign.
In fact, he is preparing to go to the US-Mexico border in Alamo, Texas this Tuesday to promote the landmark achievement of his term-the border wall. Even though various social platforms were banned, his supporters stubbornly United and held a "Million Militia Parade" on Biden's inauguration day.
What kind of crazy "farewell show" the president will stage is still the most worrying thing for the media. "Trump's presidency is in the final whirlpool of chaos." The commentary said that even if the deadline is close at hand, every hour seems to bring new threats to the fragile democracy in the United States.
The House of Representatives has drafted an impeachment bill. According to reports, the impeachment resolution announced said that Trump seriously endangered the security of the United States and its government agencies. He threatens the integrity of the democratic system and interferes with the peaceful transition of power. He betrayed the people's trust in the president. "This is the first step for the Democratic Party to hold an impeachment vote this week. Trump will become the only president in American history who has been impeached twice.
Pelosi said in 10 that House Republican 1 1 will also propose a resolution calling on Burns to use the 25th Amendment of the US Constitution to remove Trump. We call on the vice president to respond within 24 hours. The resolution will be voted before 12. If approved, and Burns fails to take action within 24 hours, the House of Representatives will start impeaching Trump.
Members of the democratic party of the United States can't stand it. Even if there are only a few days left in President Trump's term, he will be ousted. 1967 passed the 25th amendment to the US Constitution, which stipulated that if the vice president and most cabinet members think that the president can't perform his functions and duties, the vice president can act as the president. However, The New York Times said that few Democrats believed that Burns would take action, and Rep. Clay Claybourn, the third democratic figure, said that the House of Representatives might vote to impeach Trump on 13. The New York Times said that by the afternoon of 10, more than 2 10 Democratic congressmen had signed the impeachment clause, which was close to the required half of the votes (2 17).
According to the impeachment procedure, the impeachment clause can be passed by a simple majority in the House of Representatives, but a two-thirds majority is needed in the Senate to convict the president.
This means that at least 17 Republican senators need to support impeachment before Trump can be convicted. At present, although more Republicans have joined in condemning Trump, such as Republican Senator Tomi of Pennsylvania, Republican Senator Sasser of Nebraska, former Permanent Representative of the United States to the United Nations Heili, and Congressman Ginsinger of Illinois have also called for the removal of Trump with the 25th Amendment to the US Constitution, it is obviously not enough for Republican senators to openly support the impeachment of the President.