In recent days, with the continuous increase of new wheat, the price began to plummet. The previous peak went straight to 1.7 yuan, but now it has fallen across the board, and its center of gravity has fallen below 1.6 yuan. The mainstream price has dropped to 1.55 yuan to 1.6 yuan, which shows the rapid decline.

1, the new wheat fell a bit.

Although it is expected that the new wheat will be listed, the supply will increase and the price will fall, but this round of decline is too fast.

The price reduction several times a day really makes people feel a little flustered.

Why did the new wheat fall so badly?

The main reason is that the expectation of new wheat concentration is increasing.

Since mid-May, wheat has been harvested from south to north. Usually, the quality of Hubei wheat harvested earlier is relatively average, and the quantity is not much, so the price is often unstable.

Until June, with the gradual listing of wheat in the main producing areas, wheat will usher in the peak of listing.

On the other hand, it is the game in the early stage of the market.

Although the price of new wheat is "higher" this year and the minimum purchase price of national summer grain is also raised compared with previous years, it also indicates that the price of wheat will not be too low this year.

However, we should also see that this year is the first time that wheat has gone out of the market of 1.5 yuan and 1.6 yuan.

Although we all know that the cost of planting will rise obviously today, the price of wheat will also rise, but the market is still exploring what price range it will rise to.

Therefore, with a large number of new wheat coming to the market, the price of wheat began to show a tentative downward correction.

2. Will it fall even more in June?

Seeing that May is approaching, after entering June, wheat will really start to go on the market in large quantities, so has the price of wheat dropped even more?

First of all, the new concept of agriculture holds that although wheat prices have fallen across the board recently, it is unlikely to fall again after June.

The first reason is that the recent sharp drop in wheat prices is a bit lower than expected, that is, enterprises understand that wheat is about to enter the peak of listing, so they cut the price in advance in this mood.

However, the planting cost this year is higher than last year. Although food subsidies have been issued twice this year, it is obviously impossible to stabilize the increase in planting costs, and the grassroots pay more attention to food prices. Therefore, once the price of wheat is too low, it will easily lead to reluctance to sell, forcing enterprises to raise prices and collect grain.

On the other hand, the withdrawal of wheat from forage substitution this year is a high probability event, and one of the key factors is price.

Only when the price of wheat is at least 200 yuan/ton higher than the price of corn can it avoid flowing into feed.

We can see that although the price of corn is still fluctuating this year, the basic bottom has also been raised. Therefore, with corn as the bottom, there is limited room for wheat prices to plummet again.

The third reason is that the increase of wheat buyers this year means that the demand changes greatly, and it is difficult for the market to remain depressed; Coupled with the soaring international wheat prices, the domestic wheat market sentiment is also generally high.

Therefore, we judge that although the wheat price will enter the peak of wheat harvest in June, the probability of a sharp drop in the price has been reduced, and it is not even ruled out that it will stop falling and rebound because of the fierce game.

Step 3 collect two things

Seeing that June is coming, we should pay attention to two things after the listing of Xinmai:

The first is the weather.

You should know that the weather changes last year have changed too many things, so the subsequent weather will become the key collection object.

The second is to collect the trend of corn. Although corn was not at home in June, the change of corn trend had a certain impact on wheat.

Finally, with corn as the bottom, the bottom of wheat price has been basically determined, and how long the bottom will fluctuate depends on the game between buyers and sellers.

For more information, welcome to collect the New Concept of Agriculture and learn about the new development of agriculture, countryside and farmers in the new era.