The fundamental factors of crude oil supply and demand determine the long-term trend of crude oil price. Because crude oil is a non-renewable resource, the short-term supply elasticity of crude oil is small, so when no new large-scale oil fields are discovered and major technological innovations appear, the most important factor affecting crude oil prices is the world economic development that determines the demand for crude oil.
2. Oil inventory-affecting the expectation of oil price fluctuation
Oil inventory is divided into commercial inventory and strategic reserve. The main purpose of commercial inventory is to ensure the efficient operation of enterprises in the case of seasonal fluctuation of oil demand, while preventing potential shortage of crude oil supply; The main purpose of the national strategic reserve is to cope with the oil crisis.
Among the factors that affect the fluctuation of spot crude oil price, the influence of oil inventory on oil price is complicated. When the futures price is much higher than the spot price, oil companies tend to increase commercial inventory and reduce the current supply, thus stimulating the spot price to rise and reducing the spot price difference. When the futures price is lower than the spot price, oil companies tend to reduce the commercial inventory and increase the current supply, which leads to the decline of the spot price and a reasonable price difference with the futures price.
3. Oil production cost < P > As a non-renewable energy source, the production cost of oil will affect producers' inter-temporal production allocation decisions, thus affecting the market supply and indirectly causing oil price fluctuations. The lower limit of the world oil price is generally determined by the oil production in high-cost areas, while the oil in low-cost areas determines the price fluctuation range.
4. Exchange rate factors
Among the factors that affect the rise and fall of spot crude oil prices, since international crude oil transactions are mainly priced in US dollars, the US dollar exchange rate is also one of the important factors that affect the rise and fall of crude oil prices. When the US dollar appreciates, the international prices of raw materials for commodities such as gold, oil and copper are under downward pressure. Conversely, when the dollar depreciates, the price of such commodities will rise.
5. World economic development
Global economic growth will affect oil prices by changing the demand in the oil market. There is a strong positive correlation between economic growth and the growth of oil demand. The trend of oil prices is roughly the same as that of GDP in the United States, and the global economic situation plays a vital role in oil prices as well.
6. Development of alternative energy
As can be seen from the energy consumption structure chart, the consumption of oil is still in the first place. Oil can't be replaced by other resources in the short term, and the demand for oil will still be at a high level in the short term.
7. Emergencies and climatic conditions
Oil has not only the attributes of general commodities, but also the attributes of strategic materials, and its price and supply are greatly influenced by political forces and situations. Competing for oil resources and controlling the oil market has become an important reason for the oil market turmoil and soaring oil prices. The tense geopolitics has strengthened the expectation of supply contraction in the international oil market. Geopolitical factors such as terrorist attacks on oil facilities, strikes by oil workers and political turmoil in oil-producing countries will all have an impact on international oil prices.
8. International oil speculation factors-aggravate the short-term fluctuation of oil prices
At present, in the international oil futures market, the operation of international speculative capital is a factor that cannot be ignored. Speculation and market expectation in the crude oil market often increase the fluctuation of crude oil prices. Speculation factors in the international crude oil market have 1%-2% influence on crude oil prices. Especially when some unexpected events happen, a large amount of speculative capital operates in the international crude oil futures market, which intensifies the turmoil of international oil prices.
9, people's expectations-psychological factors contribute to oil price fluctuations
In recent years, the expectation of the depreciation of the US dollar and inflation has led a large number of investment funds to choose long-term investment in oil to avoid inflation risks. In the short term, a large amount of speculative capital has entered the oil market and used various expectations or themes to speculate, which has amplified the upward trend of oil prices.