The data shows that as of the third week of March, the average price of live pigs in China has been falling continuously 15 weeks.
On March 22nd, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a meeting to discuss the stable production and supply of live pigs. The meeting held that the current pig production is generally stable, the productivity of fertile sows remains at a reasonable level, the supply of pork is relatively loose, and the price of live pigs has entered a downward cycle due to the relationship between supply and demand. In addition, the price of bulk feed raw materials has risen recently, and farming has continued to lose money. Many farmers have difficulties in business, so it is necessary for all localities and relevant departments to work together to help them tide over the difficulties.
Wang Zuli, the chief expert of the monitoring and early warning of the pig industry in the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, told the 2 1 Century Business Herald that the supply of pigs is still increasing in inertia. Referring to the previous rhythm of capacity change, the supply peak may appear around April, and the supply of live pigs will begin to decrease from May to June.
With the continuous improvement of pork expenditure in the second half of the year, Wang Zuli believes that according to the normal production rhythm, the fundamentals of supply and demand of pigs will gradually shift from loose to balanced in the second half of the year, and there may be a tight balance by the end of the year, and the price will also trend upward.
Around July, pig breeding is expected to stop losing money and make a profit at the end of the year.
The supply of live pigs is sufficient and the price is falling.
According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in the fourth quarter of last year, 670 million pigs were slaughtered nationwide, up 27.4% year-on-year.
According to CCTV news reports, the national pig slaughter in June 6- 10/October this year increased by 23.6% year-on-year, and the national pig slaughter in February increased by 8.2% year-on-year. The production and supply of live pigs are sufficient, and the supply of pork is intermittent.
The stable production and supply of live pigs should be supported by solid basic production capacity. Breeding sows is the basis of live pig production and the main switch of market supply.
In September last year, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued the "Implementation Plan for the Regulation of Pig Productivity (Provisional)", and learned that the normal number of fertile sows during the "Tenth Five-Year Plan" period was stable at around 4 1 10,000, with a minimum of 37 million.
When the monthly stock of fertile sows is within the range of 95%- 105% of the normal stock (including two critical values of 95% and 105%), the stock of fertile sows is changed to green area.
On March 3, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a symposium on pig enterprises. The meeting held that after the Spring Festival, pork entered the off-season, and the number of fertile sows had been adjusted back to the Youth Fair, but the slaughter of pigs still increased inertia.
Guo Dandan, a live pig analyst at Shanghai Steel Union, told the reporter of 265438+20th Century Business Herald that although the number of fertile sows has decreased, most of the existing fertile sows are 2-4 gestational weeks, and the production performance has been improved and the breeding level is high. The change of pig production capacity on the market is limited, and the speed of pig production capacity removal is slow.
The relationship between supply and demand is the key reason that affects the price of live pigs.
According to the data of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in the third week of March, the national average price of live pigs was 12.62 yuan/kg, down 2% from the previous week, and the average price of live pigs decreased by 15 weeks.
According to the analysis of the Agricultural Products Business Department of Guolian Futures Research Institute, at present, China's pig market as a whole is in a state of oversupply.
After the Spring Festival, pork consumption entered the off-season and the supply continued to be sufficient. The surplus of white pigs in the downstream market increased slowly, driving the price of pigs to fall again.
In addition, Wang Zuli pointed out that the epidemic situation is also the main reason for the low price of live pigs.
Affected by the recent repeated epidemics, the cost of pork in China is far weaker than the normal level.
Guo Dandan believes that the epidemic situation also has a certain impact on the supply of live pigs.
In terms of transportation, many farms in the epidemic area were blocked from being slaughtered, and the pig source was overstocked; In terms of market supply, the department epidemic affected the regional terminal wholesale market to close down or reduce the retail period, and the arrival volume decreased.
The price of feed raw materials has risen, raising the cost of raising pigs.
2022 is still a challenging year for the pig industry.
Zhang Minggui, executive chairman and president of New Hope Liuhe, said.
Zhang Minggui told the reporter of 2 1 Century Business Herald that African swine fever has greatly reduced the pig production capacity and the pig price has been running at a high level.
Many pig breeding enterprises have greatly expanded their scope in the same period recently, but they have not improved their management capabilities in real time. In addition, at the beginning of last year, a new round of variation of African swine fever broke out, and the breeding cost of enterprises rose sharply, resulting in large-scale losses.
Guo Dandan indicated that in 2022, both the self-feeding mode and the outsourcing piglet mode will be in a loss period.
The Agricultural Products Division of Guolian Futures Research Institute pointed out that all feed accounts for 60% of the total cost of raising pigs, 70% of the feed ingredients are corn, and 15% is soybean meal.
According to the data of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the national average price of corn in the third week of March was 2.92 yuan/kg, up 0.3% from the previous week and rising for three weeks.
The national average price of soybean meal was 4.72 yuan/kg, up 3.3% in the previous week, up 12 weeks.
Guo Dandan believes that with the increase of raw material cost and breeding cost, it may be difficult for pig breeding to get out of the quagmire of loss in the first half of the year.
There is a process for the impact of feed price increase on pig breeding.
Wang Zuli said that according to the current price increase of corn and soybean meal, the price increase of feed raw materials will be slowly transmitted to the breeding end in the next few months, which will bring the pressure of rising feed production costs, but this pressure will be slowly released, or it will reach the highest in September and around 10.
In detail, Wang Zuli introduced that the fattening cycle of pigs is about 6 months, so for commercial pigs that are now 3 months old, the impact of rising feed raw material prices on their feed breeding costs is only 50%.
At present, commercial pigs that have just been born and slaughtered in109-June need to eat high-priced feed, and their breeding costs are affected by the rising price of feed raw materials. If other costs remain unchanged, the cost of pig breeding may increase from the current 15.5 yuan/kg to 16.5 yuan/kg, and the total cost of each commercial pig may increase to 65,438+.
Wang Zuli suggested that the increase in the price of feed raw materials is usually not transmitted to the breeding end, and breeding enterprises may also have to bear the pressure of the increase in the price of feed raw materials in their own departments.
The symposium of pig enterprises recently held by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasized that it is necessary to strengthen monitoring and early warning, implement long-term support policies for the stability of pigs, and realize that it is necessary to strengthen coordination with the adjustment policies for frozen pork savings and form a joint force.
On March 15, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a document saying that it will start the third batch of central frozen pork purchasing and storage work with relevant departments during the year, and take the lead in speeding up the purchasing and storage work.
Wang Zuli pointed out that the national reserve is relatively small compared with the total pork expenditure in the country, which has limited influence on the relationship between supply and demand in the market, and more lies in boosting the confidence of the market and farmers.
Compared with the government's regulation and leadership, the market should show decisive sexiness in adjusting resource allocation.
Wang Zuli believes that enterprises can certainly control the quality of live pig products and reduce the cost pressure by extending the industrial chain and the whole industrial chain.
As far as enterprises are concerned, Zhang Minggui indicated that in view of the rising feed cost, the more direct way is to adjust and optimize the feed formula, select the raw material combination with suitable nutrition and meeting food safety requirements, but with low time cost to produce feed, and at the same time do a good job in the management of feeding process to reduce unnecessary feed waste; The more indirect and lasting way is to strengthen the basic production management of each link, improve the effectiveness and reduce the total cost.