Influence of demand on crude oil price;
Influence of economic growth rate on crude oil price
Global economic growth will affect oil prices by changing the demand in the oil market, and there is a strong positive correlation between economic growth and oil demand growth.
Influence of weather on crude oil price
Climate will affect the supply and demand of crude oil. For example, abnormal weather may damage oil production facilities, lead to supply interruption, and then affect the international oil price, but its impact on the entire international oil price is short-term.
Influence of supply on crude oil price
1. Influence of crude oil price change on output
OPEC and non-OPEC countries have different supply principles for oil prices, and the relationship between output and price is active and passive. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has the vast majority of proven crude oil reserves in the world, and its production and price policies have great influence on the world crude oil supply and price. The usual method is to curb oil prices by increasing production.
2. The influence of geopolitics on crude oil prices
Unexpected events and climatic conditions-make oil price fluctuations more uncertain? In addition to the attributes of general commodities, oil also has the attributes of strategic materials, and its price and supply are greatly influenced by political forces and situations.
(c) Correlation between inventories and crude oil
Crude oil inventory is divided into strategic crude oil inventory and commercial crude oil inventory. Strategic crude oil inventory is an oil inventory reserved by the state for strategic consideration and prevention of oil shortage. This is because crude oil has the attribute of strategic materials, and its price and supply are greatly influenced by political forces and political situation. In addition to strategic attributes, crude oil also has its commercial attributes. In terms of commercial attributes, we need to pay attention to the commercial crude oil inventory, which is higher than the safety obligation inventory. Power comes from economic demand, so it is closely related to price.
Every Wednesday, EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release an inventory report at 10: 00 EST. The market pays attention to commercial inventory, through which the price trend of crude oil can be predicted.
Influence of financial market on crude oil price
1, change of speculative position and NYMEX crude oil price
At present, in the international oil futures market, the operation of international speculative capital is a factor that cannot be ignored. Speculation and market expectation in the crude oil market often increase the fluctuation of crude oil prices. The influence of speculative factors in the international crude oil market on crude oil prices is 10%-20%.
2. Reference of related commodities to crude oil price judgment
As we all know, the overall trend of commodities is inversely proportional to the trend of the US dollar. There are two main reasons. On the one hand, commodities are denominated in dollars, and with the appreciation of the dollar, the relative prices of commodities naturally decline; On the other hand, the appreciation of the dollar often represents the rise of risk aversion, thus reducing the demand for risky assets such as commodities, and then lowering the price of commodities.
Summary of influencing factors of crude oil price