Macro: In August, the ISM index of American manufacturing industry broke through the 50-point dividing line for the first time, reaching 52.9 1 year and entered the expansion area for the first time; In August, the purchasing managers' index (PMI) of manufacturing in the euro zone rebounded from 46.3 in July to a two-month high of 48.2 at 12. Japan's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) in July was 53.6 after seasonal adjustment, which remained above the watershed of 50 for two consecutive months, and the signs of bottoming out in the manufacturing industry were obvious. Generally speaking, the signs of economic recovery are gradually reflected.

After the decline in September, the BDI index began to rise rapidly at 10. As of September 30th, BDI closed at 2220 points, down 20 1 point or 8.3% from the end of August. 65438+1October 13 BDI closed at 2696 points, up by 476 points or 2 1.4% from the end of September. We maintain the judgment that the dry bulk transportation market may rebound sharply in the fourth quarter.

In the tanker transportation market, the freight rates of crude oil and refined oil both show a steady and rising trend. By the close of 10 and 13, crude oil tanker BDTI had closed at 55 1, up 13. 1% from the beginning of September. The finished oil tanker BCTI closed at 493 points, up 1 1.5% from the beginning of September.

The price of crude oil fluctuates greatly due to the interweaving of long and short positions. There are signs of recovery in the world economy. US retail data is improving, but crude oil demand is still not optimistic in the short term. At the same time, the market is worried about the weakening of the dollar. Under the influence of the above multiple news, international crude oil fluctuated widely, with the amplitude as high as 10% in September, but it still closed at more than 70 US dollars per barrel at the end of the month.

Concerns about reduced stocks and increased supply have severely hit the prices of ethylene and propylene. In September, the prices of ethylene and propylene suffered heavy losses due to the decrease in inventory and the concerns caused by the commissioning of new devices in China and the Middle East, with the end of the month dropping by 65,438+02.8% and 65,438+06.4% respectively compared with the beginning of the month.

Non-ferrous metals: the overall trend of bulk commodities is weak, and gold leads the commodity market.

Agricultural products: Internationally, US corn futures and spot prices both rose, wheat prices were basically stable, soybean and soybean meal futures prices obviously deviated from the spot trend, futures prices rose and spot prices fell, and international raw sugar prices fell in September. Domestically, corn, wheat, soybeans and sugar are mixed and basically stable, and the price of live pigs in Chengdu has fallen sharply.