Generally speaking, the international crude oil price is determined by the following factors: first, the dependence of the world economy on crude oil (indispensable and irreplaceable) and the limitation of crude oil reserves and output make the crude oil price very sensitive to the factors affecting supply and demand, and it fluctuates greatly. Second, the imbalance of crude oil supply and demand structure makes the relationship between crude oil supply and demand tend to be tense. Every link from reserve, production, transportation, refining to sales is very important, and the change of factors in any link will affect the fluctuation of crude oil price. Third, although the supply and demand of crude oil are roughly equal, any variable of supply and demand or related variables that affect supply and demand often determines the price trend in a certain period. Uncertainties such as wars, terrorist attacks, oil workers' strikes and other emergencies have seriously affected or even influenced the trend of oil prices. Fourthly, under normal circumstances, the decline of crude oil inventory has little supporting effect on oil prices during economic recession, while the increase of crude oil inventory has a greater destructive effect on oil prices; In the stage of economic recovery and prosperity, the increase of crude oil inventory has a stabilizing effect on oil prices, but the decline of crude oil inventory will greatly support the rise of oil prices. Fifth, in the economic recession, the demand for crude oil decreases and the price falls, so it is often difficult for oil-producing countries to reduce production, and increasing production will accelerate the decline of oil prices; However, when the economy recovers, the demand for crude oil increases and the oil price rises, increasing production has limited effect on stabilizing the oil price rise, while reducing production will obviously aggravate the price rise. Sixth, speculation and market expectations in the crude oil market often increase the fluctuation of crude oil prices. The influence of speculative factors in the international crude oil market on crude oil prices is 10%-20%.

The increase in oil demand driven by the global economic recovery is the basic incentive. Since the beginning of this year, the global economy has grown rapidly, and the demand for crude oil has exceeded the expectations of international authorities in advance. In particular, the economic growth of the United States and China, the two largest crude oil consumers in the world, is strong, and the economic situation of Japan, the third largest crude oil consumer, has also improved significantly. According to the latest forecast of the International Energy Agency (IEA), the global daily demand for crude oil increased by 3.3% in 2004 and by 3.9% in the first half of this year. The total daily demand of the global market is 82.2 million barrels (see Figure 2). Global oil demand only increased by 0.78% in 2002, and rose to 2.2% in 2003. Therefore, the continuous improvement of the global economy in the past two years has led to a sharp increase in oil demand close to its maximum supply capacity, leaving supply and demand in a fragile balance, which is the basic factor that triggered this wave of rising oil prices.

Uncertainty such as terrorist attacks is the main reason for short-term fluctuations. First of all, after the main battle of the United States against Iraq, the terrorist attacks on oil facilities continued, which led to the turmoil in Iraq and made it difficult for oil exports to return to the pre-war level, adding a new shadow to the world oil market. Secondly, the domestic political situation in Venezuela, the third largest oil producer of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, is unstable, which seriously affects the production and export of crude oil. Third, in May this year, the Russian government issued an ultimatum to Yukos Company, demanding to recover the huge tax arrears. The bank account of Yukos Oil Company is frozen, and Yukos Company faces the threat of bankruptcy, which directly affects oil production and export. The daily oil output of Yukos Company is 654.38+700,000 barrels, accounting for 2% of the global total output. !

Speculation contributed to the soaring oil price. The relationship between oil supply and demand tends to be tense, and various geopolitical conflicts occur frequently, creating conditions for speculation. The speculation of international speculators has enhanced people's psychological expectation of tight crude oil supply in the international market and artificially raised the international oil price. It is estimated that about 70% of the current international oil futures transactions are speculative.

The rapid development of manufacturing industry has led to a sharp increase in energy consumption such as oil.