In September this year, when BYD's market value surpassed SAIC for the first time to become the first car market value in China, a discussion was planned. At that time, BYD's market value was 250 billion. At that time, the rationality of the valuation was given in the tone of "boatman": the new energy vehicle sector was valued at 80 billion, the battery was valued at 654.38+00 billion, the chip was valued at 40 billion, and BYD Electronics was valued at 30 billion (the fuel vehicle sector was valued at 0).

Obviously, through the calculation at that time, BYD, which seemed to hit a record high and its market value exceeded SAIC, was reasonably valued or even underestimated. However, in less than two months, as of the close of1October 6 165438+, BYD's highest share price approached the 200 yuan mark, and its closing market value exceeded 500 billion, reaching 5 195 billion.

What is the concept that the market value is close to 520 billion? It is not only twice as fast as SAIC, but also exceeds the market value of many "cattle companies" such as Mercedes-Benz and BMW. At present, BYD's market value is second only to Tesla, Toyota and Volkswagen, making it the fourth listed company in the world. And according to this way of rising, BYD's market value will surpass that of Volkswagen (the market value of Volkswagen is about 550 billion yuan) in another week!

Goose, is it reasonable to face such a market value? In other words, is BYD overvalued, undervalued or normal?

The wind is really strong, but BYD is not flying high now.

Lei Jun said that pigs can fly on the tuyere. Now BYD is obviously on the "tuyere", windy and still very strong.

Not much to say about the "policy wind" in China, and everyone understands it. For example, the new energy industry plan just released. Let's focus on the foreign wind here.

In fact, the sharp rise of a number of new energy sectors in China, including BYD, is closely related to the surge of new energy sectors in the US stock market after the end of this year's epidemic.

Let's look at the "leading" Tesla first. Remember the controversy caused by Tesla's market value surpassing Toyota? Looking at it now, the original question is ridiculous: Tesla's current market value has exceeded 400 billion US dollars, equivalent to the market value of two Toyota and nearly ten BMW. ...

What is more exaggerated is the increase, which is the standard of looking at the "wind". A year ago, Tesla's share price was about $45, but now its share price is as high as $500. Ten times a year ... Is it underestimated or overestimated now? We will discuss this problem again.

More exaggerated, and as a more appropriate reference to measure BYD (whether the valuation is reasonable or not), Wei Lai is.

Anyone who pays attention to Weilai should know that the "dark moment" a year ago-the stock price once struggled at the delisting threshold of $65,438 +0. However, as of165438+1October 5, what is the closing price of Weilai US stocks? 42.49 dollars! ! The increase of 40 times a year makes you fully realize the "effectiveness" of Nasdaq, a "mature market"!

Therefore, when many people are still arguing that BYD's rise from 45 yuan to 200 yuan from a year ago is too "crazy", it is actually dwarfed by US stocks.

More importantly, the absolute market value is the key to measure whether BYD's current valuation is reasonable.

What is the market value of Weilai as of June 5438+065438+1October 5? 57 1 billion dollars, about 380 billion yuan. According to people's usual understanding of the valuation of US stocks and A shares, if the same company is placed in US stocks and A shares, the valuation of the former will generally be lower than that of the latter.

In other words, assuming Weilai is in the A-share market, its market value will be even greater-perhaps it can be on an equal footing with BYD.

We assume that the valuation of BYD's new energy vehicle sector can be comparable to that of Weilai. Remember, this is a hypothesis. We'll discuss this later.

Then, BYD's current share price is obviously "seriously underestimated"!

Why do you see it?

Don't forget, BYD, a listed company, is not only a "BYD car" but also a battery! Moreover, we have analyzed before that the valuation of BYD's battery sector is higher than that of BYD's new energy vehicle sector.

There is also an industry analogy. What is the total market value of a contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. that only produces batteries? More than 600 billion! Although BYD's battery shipment is not as good as that of Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd., don't forget its blade battery (this will be discussed in detail later). So what do you think the current valuation of BYD battery should be?

Assuming that it should be the same as the new energy vehicle sector, then BYD's current valuation should be less than half!

So, what about BYD Electronics? Still got the chip? How do you calculate these ...

Then if (remember this "if") the current valuation of the new energy sector of the US stock market is reasonable, then BYD's current valuation is not only not high, but also underestimated by at least one time.

In other words, BYD's current reasonable market value should be one trillion!

BYD's Important Internal Windows: Blade and Han.

Scared? Don't worry, let's take a break and discuss an important premise above: can BYD's new energy vehicle sector really be equal to or even higher than Weilai's valuation, and how should its battery sector be valued?

As mentioned above, it is the external wind that blows pigs to the sky, which is also the influence of the big environment and industry. However, these are definitely not enough, otherwise the share price of Beiqi Blue Valley should also be a drop in the sky (in fact, Beiqi Blue Valley has only increased by 50% compared with a year ago, and even the GEM index has not outperformed).

Therefore, BYD can be so arrogant, and another key is its internal "wind." There are two kinds of winds. The surge in the first half of this year was mainly caused by blade batteries. Now it is soaring, mainly because of Korea.

About the blade battery, it has been noisy for several months, and no one is convinced. Opponents believe that this is only a change in the assembly form of lithium ferrous phosphate, and it is not an innovation at all. BYD is just speculating on the concept, which is essentially the same as CTP of Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd.. Supporters of course believe that the blade battery is a moderate revolution, at least for BYD, which is short-term and explosive.

I look at it this way: from a business point of view, it is not that important. Blade acupuncture experiment is really deeply rooted in people's hearts. Moreover, people are really worried about the safety of electric vehicles (it is useless to say that you don't have to worry, you can't convince these people), and the effect of blade batteries will be highlighted.

This is why the blade battery is not a huge technological revolution in the eyes of "experts", but it is a "super big move" in the eyes of the market.

Then look at Han. It is also a controversial product. For example, some people think that it won at a low price, others think that its oil-electricity division is not pure enough, and some people think that Han (the main version) lost its true colors when it gave up its performance. Some people even think that Han's interior design is too "uncle" and too "local tyrant", which is different from Tesla and Weilai.

However, facts speak louder than words. South Korea's sales have been rising steadily, and in June, 5438+ 10 has exceeded the 7000 mark. And orders are still enthusiastic.

Maybe you still object, because in your eyes, Weilai's force is incomparable to BYD.

In the end, it is an endless war of words about who is pushed up. However, one thing needs to be reminded: forcing and market value are not the same thing. Just like the market value of BMW is only one-fifth of that of Toyota.

For market value evaluation, the more credible, reliable and public-oriented the brand is, the higher the market value will be. Worldwide, if it is credible and safe, who can compete with BYD (including Tesla) as a pure electric brand?

This is the result of BYD's steady operation for so many years. This is BYD's moat, which is far more stable than Weilai's "forced grid". Coupled with the current concept of blade battery, BYD has actually been making this card bigger and stronger.

And this card, the higher the end, the more useful it is. Why? Vernacular: Rich people are more afraid of death!

Then we will find that the market effect of Korea is so good-is it really because it is cheap? You can ask the person who bought the car.

As for Han's coercion, we don't want to discuss it more, because it is another war of words. But at least, Han's force is the highest in BYD at present. Do you want to admit it?

The key is that after Han, BYD will launch more and more high-powered models. Because BYD tasted the sweetness here. Moreover, BYD officials have indicated that they will gradually abandon the low-end market.

In this way, do you think the market value of BYD's new energy vehicle sector should be the same as Weilai's, surpassing Weilai or Shuangweilai?

Seeing this, do you have an impulse to buy BYD and Man Cang Manrong? Don't worry, be sure to read the last part!

Buy or sell? The core is what you think of this round of new energy bubbles.

Through the above combing, it seems that it can be concluded that BYD is currently "seriously underestimated". At least, it has more than doubled. Trillion market value beckons. ...

I should buy it at buy buy.

It is important to remind you that all the above analysis and evaluation are based on the valuation and price comparison of the new energy sector of US stocks.

Suppose this premise is not true?

In other words, have the valuations of US stocks such as Tesla and Weilai been seriously bubbled?

In other words, Weilai is "seriously overestimated" at present, and BYD is only "overestimated"-the relationship between fifty steps and one hundred steps.

This shows how important this premise is.

So, are Tesla and Weilai overvalued or even seriously overvalued?

Do you think I can give a standard answer here? Even if I give it, will anyone believe it? Wall street. Well, I'm talking about Wall Street in the United States, and there's been a lot of noise on this issue, right?

So, let's express our views on auto wall street: Undoubtedly, it is overvalued and now it is in a bubble-rich moment.

It's actually quite simple. Take Weilai as an example. Its current market value is $50 billion, which means that it will mature in the future and its annual net profit should reach $5 billion (the valuation of mature companies is about 10 times).

5 billion dollars, almost 33 billion yuan! No concept? For reference: BYD, which has worked for so many years, made a net profit of 654.38+0.6 billion RMB last year. How many years will it take to grow to 33 billion, and then it will take too many years. Students who like math can do it by themselves.

So, is this algorithm right? Will Weilai's share price definitely fall in the future? Instead, it may double again?

Well, this question has a secret for you: Go out, turn left, there is a blind man under the bridge, and he is very accurate. ...

This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.