On how to judge the quality of trading system in trading
What I am talking about today is how to judge the quality of a trading system. In fact, before establishing the trading system, I must ask myself repeatedly: Can I take shortcuts to make money quickly in this cruel investment market? See if you can take this shortcut. There is no doubt about the answer. Shortcuts are impossible. Nothing in the world, nothing, can come out through shortcuts. Think about it. Sometimes, especially in the futures investment market, the futures market in China is fairer than the stock market. Think about it. One day, when I was having dinner and chatting with my friends, I said, what are we doing in stock trading? We are waiting for the dealer to cut us in the stock market, because the dealer has completely locked the chips and he dominates a very large part. He can have sex at will. Zhuang is happy in the stock market today and can give you a continuous daily limit. Zhuang is not happy today, even if the market goes up, it may give you a daily limit, which is possible. The rise and fall of the stock basically depends on Zhuang's character. Although everyone has heard that the futures market is a high-risk market, it is not, because the futures market is really a market that struggles with the empty side. Because the futures market is a game between capital and capital: small capital increases capital, and large capital increases small capital to play the game. Therefore, futures are a battlefield, with a long side and a short side. In my opinion, there are two main risks of loss in futures: the first newborn calf is not afraid of tigers. I think I'm fine. After speculating in stocks for a month, I accidentally caught a dark horse and earned 5%, so I feel very powerful. I think I can beat the futures market and operate there. This newborn calf is not afraid of tigers, and it is risky. Another risk is that technical experts like me believe that the market should fall when it reaches this position and rise when it reaches this position. Too much self-confidence means that the high-skilled person is bold, and the high-skilled person is bold. These two situations, to put it bluntly, are manifestations of ignorance and conceit. Only these two will be the real biggest risks. So as long as you master these two, it is easier for you to make money in the futures market than in the stocks. The trend is really on the rise, so even if the bears are fierce, they will be defeated by the bulls. When the trend comes, it should rise, and when the callback is over, it should rise. When the trend comes, it falls, and when it rebounds, it falls. Even if you have money, you can control the market for one day, two days or three days, but you can never control the market for more than a week. Because the futures market is a game of funds and funds, the money earned is the money lost by others. I often say this in customer groups and enterprise groups: How did my customers and I make money? What retail investors lose is money. How can we professional investors make money without losing money? Therefore, the futures market is a relatively fair market. Therefore, in a relatively fair market, the quality of a trading system can be tested. Because at some entry points, stocks are signals to open positions, and futures are not signals to open positions. However, futures have an opening signal, and stocks must have an opening signal. Therefore, to judge the quality of a system, you have to shield your humanity, and after shielding your humanity, find a method suitable for this market. How to verify this method? First, can it stand the test of historical materials? For example, how long has the investment market been around? It's been one or two hundred years now. What are the most classic theories that can be handed down now? Wave theory, Dow theory (also the originator of all theories), K-line theory, average line theory, morphology, Gann theory (practical operation theory) and chaotic operation method (practical operation theory). So it proves that the most classic things on the market have been handed down. Only by studying classics can we stand on the shoulders of giants. Therefore, in order to learn how to invest and make money, these theories must be studied. Every theory has its advantages, and every theory has its disadvantages. Therefore, before establishing a trading system, you should first verify whether your trading method has been verified by history and see if your method appears in these classical theories. In this sentence after class, the greatest advantage of our people is that it is easy to absorb and introduce, because we all believe that "monks who come here are good at chanting." As a result, many foreign good and bad things were introduced. Mao Zedong said, "Take the essence and discard the dross." What is good and what is bad needs real judgment. Keep the good ones and discard the bad ones. This is an advantage of China people, and a disadvantage of China people is that they are too innovative. There is no need to come up with a theory to name it, claiming to have invented it. Like my chaotic trend theory, at least I still keep the original things. I learned chaos theory from Bill William. Trend theory follows these Taoist theories, wave theory, and these masters, all using their things. My own theory at least retains the essence of the original theory. There are many theories on the Internet. Just change your name, okay? So I suggest you read and respect the classics, so that you can take the first step towards success and choose the trading system that suits you, because these theories have been verified by history, and you don't care to find the real gold mine in these classic theories and take it for yourself. And after I have mastered the classical theory, I will use the word "chaotic trend". I hope everyone can find the real gold mine in these classical theories like me. This is the premise of establishing a good trading system. Second, when your own trading system is established, just like we learn to drive, you learn the knowledge in books, such as where to turn left, where to knock the gear, and what kind of lights to flash. You have learned a good theory in the textbook, and the rest is to study and practice. Even if you study the best theory in the world, as I always say, there are 50 million or more people who have studied Sun Tzu's Art of War for thousands of years. But how many people can become real stars after learning? Even if you know the art of war by heart, if you don't go to the battlefield for actual combat, you will learn it in vain. Therefore, it is suggested that the second part of the trading system should be tested on the basis of basic conditions. As Deng Xiaoping said, "Practice is the only criterion for testing truth", and practice is the most important. In short, how to judge whether the theory and practice of trading system can equal the result. Not only theory, but also practice. Only by combining theory with practice can you get the results you want. What is the desired result? In the investment market, the final result is stable profit. I told you the story of Journey to the West. Tao has 360 side doors, each of which can be turned into a positive result, but whether it can be turned into a right path varies from person to person. The positive result or ultimate goal of investing in the market is to obtain stable profits. The most important thing for stable profit is not profit, but stability, and only stable profit can really appear. Think about the various trading competitions held now. How many times has the monthly champion fund doubled and the weekly champion fund increased? A very narrow view of a problem will lead retail investors to no return. Today, my fund rose by 100%, quadrupling and tripling. Is it impressive? I'm glad I made twice as much tomorrow, and I'm glad I made twice as much the day after tomorrow. After two days, I lost 50% in a row. You may not make money in the end, so people should have a bold vision and don't look at the gains and losses of a day. Today, I earned100000,1000000,1000000. This method is only accidental. If you do it with this mentality. Then the result is that you will soon be eliminated by the market. This example is easy to tell. You can search for an example of a very famous futures investor on the Internet. Sichuan Wanqun, a female teacher, started the first novice futures before 2008. I took 50 thousand yuan to make soybean oil and lost more than 40 thousand. Later, Man Cang made soybean oil. As a result, there happened to be a big bull market in soybean oil, and she continued to do more in Man Cang. As a result, the capital of 40,000 yuan gradually became/kloc-0,000,500,000,/kloc-0,000,000, and the peak value was close to 20 million, which took half a year. From the numerical point of view, is it a master, and the funds have increased by 500 times. Is it very powerful? But the result is 20 million, 300 lots of soybean oil, a week, continuous limit. In the end, I only got more than 50 thousand points. The result was 50,000 yuan when it entered the market. Finally, I was forced to close my position, continue to explode, and then explode. In the last week, it was only more than 50 thousand, but I still earned it. Does this make sense? It doesn't make any sense. So the final market is stable and profitable. Earn 10% today, or 10% this month, or 10% this year, 10% next year, next month and tomorrow, and 10% after one year, one month and one day. Continuous earning is 10% every time. For example, when I do stocks, my goal is 10% per month, and futures are 10-30% per month. Of course, it is not compound interest. Off-topic, someone said to me, "I learned how to make twice as much money in a month, a week and a day." Then let's imagine, five years and ten years later, who will still live in the market and who will take money from the market and make money from the market. So how to look at the quality of a trading system has been discussed with you. One of the most fundamental purposes of investing in the market is to make money. How to earn, earn safely,