1. The increase or decrease in inventory due to futures risks is simply the increase or decrease in the market price of commodities in hand. This is the main factor.

2. Loss due to breach of contract caused by credit risk, for example, after the signing of the contract, the spot price rises and the seller refuses to perform delivery. Or the spot price drops after signing the contract, and the buyer refuses to perform the receipt. The above are the risks of buyers and sellers. As intermediaries, they may face the problem of compensation for breach of contract because of the breach of contract at their last home or next home. For example, if the seller wants to breach the contract, he will ask you extremely harsh conditions, such as asking you to remit money on the same day or the goods can't be kept. If you can't do it, he will use it as an excuse not to perform the contract; However, the buyer refuses this condition on the grounds that it is not in conformity with the contract, so it is difficult for the trader to be caught in the middle. This kind of thing is not common in recent years, but it is by no means a case. We must be careful.

3. Exchange gains and losses arising from exchange rate fluctuations. This is imported goods. For example, some commodities are imported by 180-day forward US dollar letter of credit, assuming that the market price of commodities remains unchanged. When the letter of credit was opened in August, it was1000000 USD. If the exchange rate was 6.70 at that time, it would cost about 6.7 million RMB. But by the time you actually paid in June 5438+065438+ 10, the RMB had appreciated to 6.59, which means you only need to pay 6.59 million RMB, and the difference between 1 10000 RMB is the exchange gain. Of course, if the local currency exchange rate falls, there will also be exchange losses.

4. Current arbitrage losses or gains. For commodities with futures varieties, in order to control futures risks, generally speaking, when traders buy spot in the spot market, they will sell a certain number of forward contracts in the futures market according to the actual situation at that time to hedge risks. For example, we bought goods of 1 million dollars, shipped them in 10, and arrived in Hong Kong in February. After buying it, I found that there are unstable factors in the market, and it is expected that the price may fall before June 65438+February. At this point, we sold $654.38+$200,000 futures settled in February. By the time the futures were settled, the spot price fell to 500,000 dollars in June 5438+February, and we lost 500,000 dollars in the spot market and earned 700,000 dollars in the futures market, not only losing but also earning 200,000 dollars. In practice, we decide the degree of hedging risk by controlling the number of futures contracts sold.

There are many other risk factors such as bank reputation and force majeure. However, the probability of these situations is very low and is generally not considered.