As we all know, April 9th is the last trading day before overseas Easter holidays. On this day, not only will the United States release the unemployment benefits report for the first week of April 4, but OPEC+will also hold an emergency meeting on the same day to discuss the issue of deep production reduction again. In addition, on the same day, the Federal Reserve made another effort to announce the launch of a $2.3 trillion initiative to support local governments and SMEs.
On April 9, OPEC+finally reached a preliminary agreement on production reduction. OPEC+said in a statement that from May 2020 1 day, OPEC+will reduce production by100000 barrels per day, which is the first round of production reduction in two months. At the same time, OPEC+also confirmed a production reduction of 8 million barrels per day from July 2020 to February 65438+; From 202 1 to 1, the output will be reduced by 6 million barrels per day until April 2022.
This is the largest production reduction agreement since the establishment of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, but it is only a preliminary agreement and no formal agreement has been reached. It is not clear whether this production reduction agreement is based on the production reduction commitment made by the United States at the G20 meeting on Friday, but according to a representative, OPEC+hopes that G20 countries other than OPEC+will reduce their production by an additional 5 million barrels per day.
G20 energy ministers will hold an online meeting at 20:00 Beijing time on Friday, with Saudi Arabia as the chairman, and the United States and other countries will have the opportunity to consider and possibly participate in production reduction.
The international oil price surged and fell, diving in the late session, and the negotiation process of OPEC+production reduction meeting disappointed investors. At the close, the main contract of WTI crude oil fell by 9.29% to US$ 22.76/barrel, and once rose by about 13% in intraday trading, hitting a maximum of US$ 28.36/barrel; The main contract of Brent crude oil fell by 4. 14% to 3 1.48 USD/barrel, and once rose more than 10% in intraday trading, hitting a maximum of 36.40 USD/barrel.
The US stock market closed higher for the second day in a row on Thursday. At the close, the Dow rose 285.80 points, or 1.22%, to 237 19.37, Nasdaq rose 0.77% to 8 153.58, and the S&P 500 index rose 1.45%.
OPEC+production reduction agreement reached, and oil prices staged a super roller coaster.
The international oil price surged and fell, diving in the late session, and the negotiation process of OPEC+production reduction meeting disappointed investors. At the close, the main contract of WTI crude oil fell by 9.29% to US$ 22.76/barrel, and once rose by about 13% in intraday trading, hitting a maximum of US$ 28.36/barrel; The main contract of Brent crude oil fell by 4. 14% to 3 1.48 USD/barrel, and once rose more than 10% in intraday trading, hitting a maximum of 36.40 USD/barrel.
On April 9, OPEC+finally reached a consensus on production reduction. OPEC+said in a statement that from May 2020 1 day, OPEC+will reduce production by100000 barrels per day, which is the first round of production reduction in two months. At the same time, OPEC+also confirmed a production reduction of 8 million barrels per day from July 2020 to February 65438+; From 202 1 to 1, the output will be reduced by 6 million barrels per day until April 2022.
Earlier, it was reported that Saudi Arabia and Russia had reached an agreement on a substantial reduction in production, which may be as high as 20 million barrels per day.
US President Trump said last week that he expected and hoped that Saudi Arabia and Russia would cut oil production by 654.38+million barrels per day, accounting for 654.38+05% of the global total supply. Trump did not promise American companies to take any action.
"The bottom support of the first phase of oil price has already appeared, but the further upside in the future depends on when the epidemic is completely controlled. Under the premise of no other favorable promotion, it is expected that oil distribution will run in the range of 30-40 USD/barrel in the future. " Li Yuying thinks.
Li, a crude oil analyst at Anxin Futures, said that the confidence of the production reduction agreement in the crude oil market is greater than the substance. According to the recent year-on-year decline in global crude oil demand, it may be as high as 20 million barrels per day. It is difficult to reverse the global oil accumulation under the influence of the epidemic, but it is very important to greatly reduce the supply pressure and slow down the accumulation speed, so as to provide a time lag for waiting for the epidemic to improve. On the other hand, the atmosphere of increasing production in March is already the most pessimistic time on the supply side, and the expectation of OPEC+management to maintain production reduction for a long time has greatly weakened the downward pressure on oil prices.
For the market outlook, Li believes that the weakness of spot and recent contracts will continue to suppress the oil price and monthly difference under the background of oversupply, and the impact of the epidemic on crude oil demand will be difficult to recover in a short time, but the active and passive production reduction of the supply side will support the already low-valued oil price, and the probability of wide oscillation at the bottom of the oil price is too high. In addition, it should be noted that the number of active oil drilling platforms in the United States has decreased by more than 65,438+000 in the past 65,438+0 months, and it is still continuing. The collapse of new shale oil wells and the attenuation of old wells may reduce the output in the second quarter by more than 2 million barrels per day, and the supply side will be greatly reduced. If we can see that the demand expectation has improved in the near future, the upward elasticity of oil prices may be amplified.
An Yang, head of R&D of haitong futures Energy and Chemical Industry, believes that the surplus situation caused by the current sharp drop in demand cannot be changed by reducing production. Therefore, even if the intensity of the production reduction agreement exceeds market expectations, its impact can only be short-term, which will only boost the market to a certain extent and cannot support the long-term upward trend of oil prices.
To this, Li Yuying agreed. She believes that the market needs to focus on the trend of the United States, the actual landing of production cuts and the trend of the global epidemic. Specifically, in the United States, as we all know, the production cost of shale oil is higher than that of conventional crude oil, generally at $ 35-55/barrel. It is precisely because of this that when the price of Brent crude oil fell below $30/barrel, the United States began to urge the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to cut production. Although the United States did not directly participate in the OPEC+meeting, before the meeting, the country had released stimulus signals such as forced production cuts by Saudi Arabia and other countries. After the meeting, the United States quickly welcomed the OPEC+production reduction agreement. In addition, it is reported that Scavino, director of White House social media, said that after the meeting, US President Trump began to discuss crude oil agreements with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Saudi Crown Prince.
The persistence of superimposed low oil prices will make the global oil industry passively carry out "supply-side reform", and some high-cost projects such as oil sands and deep-sea oil projects will first face the risk of being stopped; In addition, shale oil is expected to be impacted by the "price war" in the previous two years.
In fact, the latest EIA data shows that the crude oil production in the United States dropped by 600,000 barrels per day to 6,543.8+0.24 million barrels per day this week, and the number of active drilling in Baker Hughes also dropped significantly. Many independent shale oil producers have been significantly affected and even some companies have filed for bankruptcy. Under such circumstances, Li believes that although the United States has not made a statement to cut production, in the next few months, the low oil price environment will force related enterprises to close some old wells with high cost and low oil production rate. According to estimates, assuming that shale oil drilling in the country is shut down by about half, the output of the United States will drop by 2-3 million barrels per day. Of course, this part of the output cannot be shown immediately, and it will still take 1-3 months, when the overall level of oil prices needs to be considered. "In combination with the production reduction agreement, we believe that the staged bottom of oil prices has been formed." Li Yuying said.
As for the situation of production reduction, in her view, even considering the supply gap that the United States may contribute, there is still a certain gap between the two compared with the decline of global crude oil consumption of 20-25 million barrels per day. In other words, in the important period of global anti-epidemic in the coming month, the supply side temporarily lacks further favorable boost.
In fact, Li believes that after this meeting, the upward trend of oil prices depends on when the turning point of the global epidemic comes. After observing the models of some foreign industry experts, she found that the inflection point of the epidemic may have to wait until the end of the second quarter. In these two months or so, regardless of the potential "black swan" events such as geopolitical conflicts, the upward focus of oil prices is relatively weak. Therefore, investors are advised to treat the results of this meeting rationally and pay careful attention to the epidemic situation.
At the same time, she also said that at the current point in time, from the perspective of the sustainability of oil storage, the previous deep futures premium curve boosted the global demand for low-level oil storage. However, with the passage of time, the curve has been repaired, the available storage tanks and floating warehouses are getting less and less, and the storage price is constantly hitting new highs. Assuming that the oil price rises rapidly in the short term, large enterprises will reconsider the oil storage layout. "Therefore, we believe that there is not much room for freight to continue to rise, and investors are advised to take profits on rallies." Li Yuying said.
In terms of energy conversion, fuel oil, PTA and other energy conversion varieties have regained their upward confidence, considering the upward trend of oil prices brought about by the recent expected reduction in production and the favorable domestic situation. However, with the end of the meeting, Li believes that the bullish support for oil prices will show a marginal decline. Therefore, after the bull market is exhausted, the market still needs to focus on the impact on the demand side.
Taking the polyester industry chain as an example, textile and garment exports account for an important proportion in China's terminal consumption, while most counterpart countries, such as the United States, are still mired in the epidemic. According to CCF News, at present, foreign trade defaults occur from time to time, and new orders are also very light. In view of this, the probability of external demand before the end of June is relatively pessimistic. Therefore, after the cost speculation has come to an end, she believes that all kinds of energy-saving products will also return to their own supply and demand fundamentals, suggesting that investors should grasp their positions in the near future and may face the risk of short-term high fluctuations.
Fed launches a new round of stimulus measures
The US stock market closed higher for the second day in a row on Thursday. At the close, the Dow rose 285.80 points, or 1.22%, to 237 19.37, Nasdaq rose 0.77% to 8 153.58, and the S&P 500 index rose 1.45%.
At 20: 00 Beijing time on Thursday (April 9), the Federal Reserve announced a new measure: it will take measures to provide loans of up to 2.3 trillion US dollars. Municipal (bond) liquidity measures can provide loans of up to $500 billion. The main street loan instrument can provide loans of up to $600 billion.
It is understood that the Fed's measures include details of major commercial loan programs and several other measures aimed at supporting the faltering American economy. In addition, the Fed provided more details about its market intervention measures, including plans to buy investment-grade corporate bonds and high-yield bonds (junk bonds).
According to the terms outlined for the first time, these loans will be provided to enterprises with no more than10,000 employees and 20 19 revenue of no more than $2.5 billion. Payment of principal and interest will be delayed for one year.
According to the Federal Reserve, the total amount of these plans will reach 2.3 trillion US dollars, including salary protection plans and other measures aimed at providing funds for small businesses, as well as measures to boost municipal finance through a 500 billion US dollar loan plan.
These measures strengthen the positive measures that the Fed has taken to keep the market running and support the economy. Because of the prevention and control of the spread of coronavirus, the American economy is bound.
"The Fed's bold move helps offset the worse news in the job market. What I want to say is that the strong action taken by the Fed today highlights that the Fed has unlimited firepower, which helps to maintain the calm of the market this week to some extent. " Joe Maniboth, a senior market analyst at Western Union Business Solutions, said.
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said on Thursday that the Fed will continue to use all available tools until the US economy begins to fully recover from the damage caused by the novel coronavirus epidemic, although he acknowledged that the Fed's power is limited.
At the same time, the US Department of Labor announced the number of jobless claims in the week of April 4th. According to the report, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the first week of April 4 was 6.606 million, with an expected 5 million and a previous value of 6.648 million.
Together with the data of the past two weeks, the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits for the first time in the past three weeks has exceeded160,000. If this figure is compared with the employment population of 1.5 1 100 million in the employment report last month, it is not difficult to find that 10% of the labor force has been lost in the United States within three weeks since March under the influence of the epidemic.
For today's data, some commentators believe that in the past three weeks, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the United States has exceeded 6.5438+0.5 million. As of April 4, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits at the beginning of the week was about 6.6 million, slightly lower than the previous week's 6.87 million, but it still recorded more than 6 million for two consecutive weeks, because the United States still took strict prevention and control measures, resulting in economic stagnation.
Gregory Daco, chief American economist at Oxford Economic Research Institute in new york, said that the job market has entered a traumatic period, and the unemployment rate is expected to soar to 14% in April.
Earlier, some media reported that there was a special phenomenon in the unemployment situation during the epidemic, that is, many Americans voluntarily chose to be fired because the unemployment benefits they could apply for after being fired were higher than their wages. In this way, when you can obviously get your salary, you have to take the initiative to resign and use the state's financial subsidies. Experts said that it would not increase the financial burden, and some experts even encouraged such subsidies. The main reason is that some economists say that in this process, the federal budget should be paid first, not borne by enterprises, so as to ensure that enterprises will not get into debt and then lead to a credit crisis.
Affected by the end of three consecutive rounds of increase in the number of initial jobless claims and the announcement of new measures by the Federal Reserve, the US dollar continued to suffer selling, with the lowest falling to 99.35.