Mu Yuan-dare not brag. With the announcement of "more and more wonderful" sales of major pig enterprises in June of 5438+00, the industry has ushered in a round of big melons, which not only highlights the madness of intensive pig raising, but also hides the crisis in the market outlook. A new "young eagle" may be born. ......
The first is "Pig Hair" Muyuan. In June, 5,438+10, 4.779 million pigs were sold, up by 7. 1% from the previous month. The sales revenue reached1493.7 billion yuan, up by 24.9% from the previous month and up by1/kloc-from the same period last year.
The income of Muyuan is enviable, and the total sales volume of pigs from June 5438+0 to June 5438+00 reached 50.003 million. In this regard, they said, "The amount of slaughter in 2022 is expected to exceed expectations, and it is a high probability event to slaughter more than 56 million heads in the whole year.
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If you ask me, Mu is far behind others-he dare not brag! (How do other pig companies blow it? See you later. )
Muyuan made it clear that 10 has sold 50 million pigs in a month, and even if it only sells 4 million pigs every month, it can sell 58 million pigs. He even just said that "more than 56 million heads are high probability events."
In fact, it is entirely possible for Muyuan to reach 60 million this year! We can analyze it from three aspects:
First, based on the average sales of 5 million heads in the first 10 month, it is not difficult to achieve100000 heads in the second two months.
Second, the slaughter amount of livestock source has been high at the end of the year. In 20021year, Mu Yuan slaughtered 40.26 million heads in the whole year, with an average monthly slaughter of 3.35 million heads, but nearly 9 million heads were slaughtered in 1 1 and 65438+February! And if Muyuan did not have a "panic massacre" on 202 1 and 10, the massacre at the end of the year would be even higher.
Third, with the increase in pig prices, Muyuan quickly adjusted its production plan and greatly reduced the sales of piglets. From May to June, Mu Yuan sold "6.5438+0.28 million piglets, 986,000 piglets, 569,000 piglets, 303,000 piglets, 273,000 piglets and 6.5438+0.85 million piglets" respectively. The piglet sales of Muyuan have been "cliff-like decline" for six consecutive months, actively expanding the independent fattening capacity, so their production capacity is sufficient at the end of the year and next year!
Based on the above three points, it is not difficult to find that Muyuan is fully capable of sprinting for 60 million years, depending on how they consider it comprehensively; In addition, Mu Yuan has begun to "stay away from public opinion" and try not to create hot topics like last year. After all, "bragging for a while is hard to end afterwards!"
Four major pig enterprises sprint 1 100 million head capacity! Under the leadership of Muyuan, the production capacity of the four major pig enterprises is expected to sprint hundreds of millions this year.
Wen 1652400 pigs 10 were slaughtered in October, up 4.29% from the previous month, and the income was 5.474 billion yuan, up 18.69% from the previous month. The average selling price of live pigs was 26.69 yuan/kg, up 1 1.72% from the previous month.
Stimulated by high pig prices, the amount of Wen's slaughter has increased month by month since June, and the fourth quarter is usually the peak of their slaughter! Therefore, it is very likely that the target of 6,543,800+0,800 heads will be achieved, and the estimated number of heads will be above 6,543,800+0,750.
In June, New Hope sold1455,500 pigs, up 24.70% from the previous month, and earned 3.608 billion yuan, up 19.35% from the previous month and up 170.87% year-on-year.
At this point, the new hope is to achieve the output of 1 135.59, and the goal of140,000 is "close at hand".
Liu Yonghao, chairman of New Hope Group, also made it clear at the beginning of the month that "it seems that there is no big problem to slaughter140,000 pigs this year.
It will definitely increase on this basis next year.
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In addition, Zhengbang did not publish the slaughter data of June 5438+00, but from June to September 5438+00, a total of 7,020,700 pigs were slaughtered, with an average of 780,000 pigs per month. Even though only 2 million pigs were slaughtered in June 5438+00, June 5438+06 and June 5438+02, this year,
To sum up, the four major pig enterprises are 6000+1 800+1400+900 =10/10,000 heads. Even if one of them is slack, it is not difficult to achieve the total production capacity of1100 million heads this year! But the most amazing news these days is not the surge in production capacity, but the "final decision" from Zhengbang. ......
Zhengbang: The rectification work has been in full swing! According to "Zhengbang Vision" 1 1.8, Zhengbang enterprises, once the second largest pig-raising giant in China and the fourth largest in the world, are advancing judicial pre-reorganization and judicial reorganization procedures in an orderly manner according to law with the great attention and strong support of relevant departments.
Note that this is not a company of two companies, but a state-owned enterprise! The hammer finally landed, and Zhengbang still ushered in the day of "quenching and rebirth"! This is also the most responsible result for creditors, Zhengbang employees and the pig industry. I hope to pay off my foreign debt as soon as possible and resume normal operation!
The most embarrassing thing is that just a year ago, at the end of 200211,Zhengbang also announced the grand goal of "achieving an output value of 300 billion in five years, which is quite close to the top 500 in the world".
At that time, the confidence of setting this goal was that the total output value would exceed 1000 billion in 2020, reaching 654.38+0037 billion yuan; It is estimated that the annual output value of 202 1 will reach12 billion, and Zhengbang Group and its subsidiary Zhengbang Technology are among the top 500 Chinese enterprises.
Therefore, Zhengbang said that "competition among the world's top 500 companies with conditions and strength can achieve extraordinary, leap-forward and high-quality development.
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Among them, there are even rhetoric-to rebuild an active country overseas!
Who would have thought that one year later, it still did not resist the rolling wheel of the pig cycle and entered the restructuring stage.
This reminds us once again that the rice should be stuttered and the pigs should be raised first! Optimizing production cost is the first step of expansion!
Recently, a company in the industry once again proposed a "leap-forward" capacity growth target.
The end of the expansion of pig enterprises According to the report of Cailian165438+10.7, Tianbang Food said on the interactive platform that it is expected that the slaughter amount will be around 8 million 800- 10 million in the early next year, including the slaughter of piglets, which will be dynamically adjusted according to market conditions.
Tianbang's goal of 8 8- 10/00000 pigs is not too ambitious compared with the four major pig enterprises, but it is far from its own production capacity!
Tianbang Food sold 385,600 commercial pigs in June 2022 (including piglets189,500), up 4.54% from the previous month and down 28. 1% from the same period last year. Sales revenue was 8036965438+ 10,000 yuan, down 12.48% from the previous month.
Obviously, Tianbang's capacity growth rate is not fast.
And from June 5438+0 to June 5438+00, Tianbang Food sold 3,477,400 commercial pigs (including 359,400 piglets), which was far from the production level of "8 8- 10/0,000 pigs".
Most importantly, Tianbang can breed 300,000 sows. If we want to reach the output of tens of millions of sows next year, we need a lot of outsourcing fattening, which increases the risk of operation.
Of course, as long as Tianbang can significantly optimize the breeding cost, rapid increase in production is the icing on the cake.
It is reported that the latest breeding cost of Tianbang is 18 yuan/kg. If they can reduce 1-2 yuan, they can reach a better level in the industry.
In fact, it is obvious that after this round of "the strongest pig cycle" after the non-plague, the competitive pressure of the pig industry is increasing! "Outsourcing fattening" used to be a common practice of large pig-raising enterprises in the industry, but now it is basically far away. In order to increase the slaughter, it is necessary to raise more sows first, which leads to a new level of sows in large-scale pig-raising enterprises. ......
According to statistics, there are more than 6.3 million sows in large-scale pig-raising enterprises such as Mu Yuan and Wen's 10. Details are as follows:
At the end of the third quarter, there were 2.598 million heads in Mu Yuan, 6.5438+0.34 million heads in Shi Wen, 850,000 heads in New Hope, 350,000 heads in Zhengbang, 340,000 heads in Aonong, 300,000 heads in Tianbang Food, 300,000 heads in Dabei Agriculture and 6.5438+0.35 million heads in Tiankang and Shennong Group.
This means that the pattern of "one super and many strong" in pig industry has been fully formed! In the next 3-5 years, the production capacity of most pig enterprises will gradually stabilize and will not increase indefinitely, which will eventually lead to the pig industry becoming an "oligopoly market".
As an important traditional agriculture, pig industry still needs to leave a piece of cake for farmers. Some super-large-scale pig enterprises can't adapt to super-large scale in the process of development, and may eventually close down.
You still have to stutter when you eat, and pigs can't raise hundreds of millions!