The pig farming market will get worse in 2021.

The pig farming market in 2021 will only get worse, not better. Some friends said that people are talking about rural revitalization now, and rural revitalization is inseparable from the breeding industry, so pigs are still very feasible to raise. This is over-interpretation.

Revitalizing the countryside is indeed inseparable from the breeding industry. After all, breeding is also a part of agriculture, and now it is a good way to increase farmers' income. However, the development of the breeding industry does not mean the disorderly development of pig raising. It does not mean that raising pigs this year will ensure a steady profit. Please do not let these slogans lead you to a chaotic rhythm. There is no causal connection here.

As for the mission goal of developing the pig industry in 2021, this is actually true, because the current pig price is actually quite high, and the pig industry needs to continue to be developed. But don’t get it wrong. You think that vigorously developing the breeding industry can make everyone profitable. Vigorously developing the pig industry, and even taking the development of the pig industry as a task goal, is to suppress the price of pigs.

This is from the perspective of people's livelihood. Don't think that pig farming can make money again just because you heard that the development of pig farming is strongly supported. In fact, the purpose of development is to eat cheap pork. But when pork becomes cheaper, your profits will be reduced. This problem must be clearly understood. Furthermore, in 2021, the development of pig farming will again be regarded as the mission goal, which means that a large number of pig farms will continue to be built, and the probability of subsequent pig production overcapacity will be even greater.

Extended information

Pig raising will enter the low-profit stage in 2021:

First, judging from the pig cycle market, the good days of pig raising have passed , and pig farming is at a low-profit stage this year.

Raising pigs is not the same as raising cattle and sheep. Due to the long breeding cycle of cattle and sheep, low reproductive rate, long growth cycle and other characteristics, although the consumption of beef and mutton is not as good as that of pork, in the country It is still in a stage where demand exceeds supply. But raising pigs is different. Due to the characteristics of pigs such as fast reproduction rate and fast growth rate, this also leads to the emergence of this "pig cycle".

For example, in 2016, because the number of live pigs in the country was still insufficient, the price of live pigs at that time was as high as 10 yuan per pound. However, after entering 2017, due to the continuous increase in the number of pigs, the price of pork also dropped from 10 yuan per catty to 5 to 6 yuan when the market was saturated. However, such low prices for live pigs have continued. Maintained until the first half of 2018.

The same is true in 2019. Due to African swine fever, the national pig production capacity has declined sharply. From the second half of 2019 to the present, the national pig price has been at a high level. , basically maintained at the level of 16 yuan per pound.

But such high prices will not last long, especially at such high prices, pig farming is already in the stage of huge profits. Therefore, after entering 2020, the country's pig production capacity has continued to recover. As for how much it has recovered, official statistics have confirmed that: as of the end of 2020, the country's pig population has continued to remain at about 400 million heads. Compared with 2019, The number increased by about 96 million, which was 92% of the number at the end of 2017.

Second, the rise in pig feed prices and the persistence of "small non-food" also make it difficult to make money from pig farming this year.

From the beginning of January 2021 to the present, pig feed prices have started to rise. Due to the wave of rising prices of feed raw materials, it has swept across and spread to the breeding end and even the consumer end. Among them, the feed raw materials soybean meal, rapeseed meal, cotton meal, corn, etc. have all shown a significant upward trend.

As of today, soybean meal has increased by about 190 yuan, rapeseed meal has increased by 135 yuan, cotton meal has increased by 320 yuan, and corn has increased by as much as 360 yuan. Due to the rising cost of raw materials such as corn and soybean meal, the cost of pig feed has continued to rise. Some large feed factories have also recently risen to about 150-250 yuan/ton.

Therefore, the current price of pigs has increased from 1.5 yuan per catty at the beginning of 2020 to 1.8 yuan per catty now. Although for many people, the price of pig feed has only increased by about 0.3 yuan per pound, but for pig farmers, it is a blow. The breeding cost has also increased from the original 7 to 8 yuan per catty to about 9 yuan per catty. After all, the 3:1 pig feed to reward ratio is here.

Although the current price of live pigs is still 13 yuan per catty according to statistics, retail pig farmers are under pressure from many parties (such as brokers lowering prices, slaughterhouses maliciously lowering prices, and local pigs cannot be sold at a high price). price increase, etc.), the pig price of 12 yuan per pound is also the highest level among rural pig farmers. Therefore, there is not much profit from raising pigs now. If the price continues to decline, pig farmers may still lose money.