Short-term uncertainty increases
USDA reduces global cotton production and increases consumption. According to the monthly cotton supply and demand report of USDA in June 5438+ 10, in 2020/202 1 year, the global output decreased by 900,000 bales, the consumption increased by 6.5438+0.5 million bales, the import increased by 500,000 bales, and the inventory at the end of the period decreased by 2.7 million bales, and the inventory consumption ratio was 89%. Hurricanes continue to raise concerns about cotton production in the United States. By the end of June, 2020, 5438+1 October, 65438+August, the cotton bolling progress in the United States was 92%, 5 percentage points lower than the same period of last year and1percentage point lower than the average of the past five years. The progress of cotton harvest in the United States is 34%, which is 4 percentage points lower than the same period of last year and the same as the average of the past five years. 40% cotton in the United States is growing well or better, which is the same as last week, with an increase of 1 percentage point over the same period of last year, and the proportion of poor seedlings is 33%, with an increase of 3 percentage points over last week.
1, three reasons for the post-holiday surge. The background of this round of rise lies in the macroeconomic recovery and the superposition of agricultural products. Since March 23, when cotton futures fell below the 10,000-yuan mark for the third time in history, the macro-recovery logic boosted the commodity market, and varieties rose in rotation. In particular, the agricultural sector performed particularly well. In this rising atmosphere, the center of gravity of cotton prices keeps moving up. But unlike other agricultural products, the recovery speed of downstream textile and garment industry is slow.
2.20 19/2020 cotton fundamentals showed a pattern of oversupply, which led to a slow increase in cotton prices. The start of this round of market lies in the high price of seed cotton. Due to the expansion of Xinjiang ginning factory, the cotton processing capacity in Xinjiang is far greater than the cotton output. This year, the output of seed cotton increased but the quality decreased, which caused concern about the quantity of deliverable goods. The purchase price of seed cotton keeps rising.
3. According to the survey data of the national cotton market monitoring system, as of June 23, 2020, the national new cotton picking progress was 765,438 0.9%, up 5.0 percentage points year-on-year, of which the picking progress in Xinjiang was 72.6%; The national sales rate was 85.9%, up 5.9 percentage points year-on-year, of which the sales rate in Xinjiang was 9 1.9%. According to the investigation of 60 large and medium-sized cotton processing enterprises, as of1October 23, there were 65,438, and the national processing rate was 37.9%, up by 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, of which Xinjiang processed 37.6%.