In the domestic soybean meal market, the soybean meal market has fallen sharply since the end of March. In just 10 days, the market seems to have changed. Imagine that 10 days ago, the domestic spot soybean meal market generally exceeded 5,000 yuan/ton, and on April 2, the average domestic soybean meal price had dropped to 4,432 yuan/ton, especially in China. The transaction price of soybean meal generally decreased by 880~ 1 100 yuan/ton. Among them, in Tianjin, the price of soybean meal dropped from 5400 yuan/ton to 4300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 100 yuan/ton! The price of soybean meal in Shandong market dropped from 5,300 yuan/ton to 4,200 yuan/ton, with a drop of more than 1 100 yuan!
The price of soybean meal has fallen sharply. On the one hand, due to the changes in the international environment, according to the US UDSA report, the planting area of new soybeans in the United States will reach 90.95 million mu, which is much higher than the market expectation, which has obvious negative factors for the soybean market! The recent apparent easing of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has also weakened the market panic.
On the other hand, in the domestic market, imported soybeans arrived in Hong Kong one after another in April, reaching 8.45 million tons in April, 2.45 million tons more than in March. The supply of soybeans in the market is gradually easing, the operating rate of domestic oil plants will gradually pick up, and the pressure of tight soybean meal supply will gradually weaken!
In addition, the auction of domestic imported soybeans is still going on. In April 1 auction reached 500,000 tons, but the turnover was only 49.5%. There are still 500,000 tons of imported soybeans to be auctioned on the 7th, which may lead to a further decline in transaction volume and average price, which will obviously cool the market!
However, in the domestic wheat and corn market, prices are also very weak. In particular, the price of wheat continues to be low. Recently, the quotation of flour enterprises in North China has gradually fallen below 1.6 yuan/kg. In the domestic wheat market, the quotations of enterprises have generally dropped to 1.54 ~ 1.62 yuan/kg!
The decline in wheat prices is, on the one hand, the downturn in the domestic consumer market. With the increase of temperature, the volume of flour is further depressed, and the consumption in the end market lacks enthusiasm, which also limits the motivation of flour mills to raise prices and collect grain! On the other hand, the domestic wheat auction price has been falling, the scale of wheat auction has been increasing, and the average price has been falling, which has also supported the mood of flour mills to keep prices down. In addition, it is only more than two months before the new grain wheat goes on the market, and the harvest of new grain wheat is expected to be relatively strong. Under the suppression of multiple factors, the domestic wheat market continued to fall, and the market fell further!
However, in the corn market, due to the poor purchase and sale in stages, the quotations of corn in domestic corn producing areas, Northeast China and North China are mainly sideways, and the quotations of factories in Shandong market generally reach 1.4~ 1.52 yuan/kg! Restricted by the domestic mask problem, the purchase and sale of corn is sluggish, and the market will still be dominated by shocks. However, with the gradual easing of the domestic mask problem, there may be a round of centralized supply of grass-roots corn, and the price of corn may fall, but the decline may be difficult to sustain. With the bottoming out of grass-roots corn, domestic spot corn will continue to strengthen!
Nowadays, the domestic soybean meal and wheat markets have fallen, and 1 ton soybean meal plummeted by more than 1 10,000 yuan. So, does this mean that the spring of aquaculture has come?
Personally, in the domestic pig market, the average slaughter price of pigs is 6.29 yuan/kg, and the pig price is in the bottom shock stage. Although the domestic feed cost has decreased, farmers are still in the stage of deep loss. At present, the average slaughter price of some domestic pig enterprises still exceeds 8 yuan/kg, and the average loss of farmers is still in 500 yuan! For laying hens, the delivery price of eggs in domestic farms is generally 4.2~4.5 yuan/kg. With the decrease of feed cost, laying hens will gradually turn losses into profits at present. However, due to the lack of sustained support in the consumer market, it is still too early for major domestic aquaculture industries to spring! Especially for pig breeding, it will be at a loss stage for a long time!
Waterloo! The prices of soybean meal and wheat fell, and soybean meal fell by 1 ton to more than 1 10,000 yuan. What happened? What do you think of this? The above is the author's personal opinion, and the pictures are from the Internet!