As far as systemic factors are concerned, before the monetary liquidity is tightened, global commodity prices still have the potential to rise, but domestic commodities are
Stock trends of related companies
The trend or differentiation of agricultural products under the regulatory pressure of 20.40-0.50-2.39%. In the increasingly volatile market, position management has become more important than trend judgment.
The property of commodity finance is dominant.
65438+ 10 Since September, domestic commodity prices have risen in an all-round way, and the financial attributes of various varieties here undoubtedly overwhelmed their commodity attributes, which triggered a strong upward trend in the expectation of increasing inflation. However, even in the context of the simultaneous rise and fall of commodities, their respective varieties still have different characteristics. Sugar and cotton, for example, not only rose dramatically in the short term, but also the bull market lasted for about two years. Soybean, oil and other varieties have just completed a breakthrough in the medium and long-term trend and become a rising star to undertake the bull market of agricultural products after more than a year of sideways.
The important reasons for this difference have been formed as early as 2007 and 2008. Since the second half of 2007, soybean, soybean oil, corn and other varieties have successively broken through the price fluctuation range of previous decades, and most of them have doubled or even more than the previous highs before the financial turmoil in 2008, but the prices of sugar and cotton have remained in the traditional price range. However, after the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, despite the deep drop in commodity prices, there are still varieties that can continue to be supported in the early consolidation area. In contrast, sugar and cotton show the characteristics of low value. Later, with the emergence of topics such as tight supply and demand caused by the decline in output, a large amount of funds entered these two soft commodity markets. The sugar and cotton market that started in 2009 is actually a supplementary market for the bull market in other varieties in 2007 and 2008.
Commodity market fund bubble
Abundant liquidity has contributed to the recent bull market of commodities. Taking cotton as an example, after comparing the estimated daily occupation margin of Zheng Mian index with the closing price, it is found that there is a direct relationship between them, that is, the increase of net long position of funds will push up the price. From the beginning of September, the occupancy rate of Zheng Mian index began to rise obviously, and then the price began to rise. The check-in deposit has been decreasing since 1 65438+1October 4th, and the price has been decreasing since165438+1October, so it is expected that the price will drop more than that.
Although the national policy regulation may regulate the cotton market and guide the cotton price to return to the reasonable price range, the situation of cotton production reduction in China this year has been difficult to change, the cotton planting area will not increase significantly next year, and the weather situation is unknown. The balance between supply and demand has always been an objective problem. The center of gravity of cotton prices has moved up historically, and cotton prices may fluctuate in the short term, but in the medium and long term, cotton prices will remain at a historical high.
Grain varieties become the first choice for funds.
Since the CPI reached 4.4% in June 5438+ 10, the market is worried that the domestic monetary policy will gradually turn, leading to a large profit correction in the commodity market. Under the general trend, grain futures have become the best choice for capital hedging because of its long-term stability.
Compared with other varieties, the recent decline of corn is moderate, mainly because the domestic corn fundamentals are relatively solid and farmers are reluctant to sell. Coupled with the recent heavy snow in the northeast, traffic in some areas has been blocked, and some feed mills have been out of grain. On the whole, the main stocks in the market are very limited. Since the beginning of this year, the profits of deep processing and feed enterprises have been good, and the psychological expected price of corn purchase has also increased, which has further promoted the spot to continue to rise and formed a strong support for the corn futures market.
The shock of early indica rice has intensified, and the characteristics of capital market are remarkable, but the strong operation pattern is difficult to change for the time being. It is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate greatly under the favor of its own advantages and funds, but the center of gravity of fluctuations will continue to rise further. Recently, it may fluctuate up and down with 2400 as the value axis.
Position management is the most important.
The agricultural products market is rising in turn, and the attitude of the state to curb speculation is gradually reflected. First, increase the auction of grain, cotton, oil and sugar reserves to supplement market supply. Secondly, the futures exchange has taken measures such as raising the margin and expanding the price limit, which has a certain deterrent effect on speculative funds and triggered market shocks. However, the platform for the overall management of agricultural products has moved up. If the weather and other unfavorable factors continue to affect the future, the enthusiasm of funds for agricultural products will still be difficult to ebb easily. In addition, the global quantitative easing policy has not changed significantly, and even if there is more severe shock in the short term, it is difficult to return to a lower operating range. In the current volatile market, position management has become more important than trend judgment.
Often on various occasions, as long as someone mentions sugar (information, market), the voice of "demon" will continue; Some gnash their teeth and swear, others wear glasses and laugh in a line. In short, no matter whether you make money or not, it is said that white sugar is a demon sugar. With the continuous development of this situation, it has become a fixed title over time and everyone has accepted it subjectively. Rising is also a demon, not rising is also a demon, rising is still a demon, and it seems that sugar is not white sugar when it is not demon.
What are the manifestations of the "demon" of sugar futures?
Sugar is called "demon" because it is difficult for everyone to figure out which direction it will go next, that is to say, we are always slapped by it. To sum up, the trend of sugar mainly includes the following aspects: it is often out of order, and the price is always empty and discontinuous after falling below; Huge ups and downs in an instant, sometimes there may be no news stimulation, and futures prices suddenly start unilateral market; There is no trend in intraday prices, and two-way positions make futures prices fluctuate greatly during the day, and retail investors often fall into a splint. Like to go against the trend, this is the so-called people go up and I don't go up, people fall and I go up, and always like to go their own way; Often the main force doubles, and funds like to fight cattle through different contracts, and the main contract is driven by inactive contracts; In a typical capital market, fundamentals and technical aspects can only be sidelined in many cases. Of course, there are still many places that make everyone depressed about sugar futures. In short, you will be scared if you order it, and you will lose if you are not careful.
Many futures products have demon names.
In fact, sugar is not alone. There are also many kinds of monsters nicknamed the futures market, such as rubber (information, market) monsters, steel monsters and soybean oil (information, market) monsters. Under normal circumstances, when investors lose money, they will scold this kind of "demon", as if to say, it's not that I made a mistake, but that this banker is too dark; I am still very wise, but I am unlucky. We can see that the varieties that are generally regarded as "demons" have many participants, good liquidity, large price fluctuations and many investors who lose money. People who lose money on sugar today think that the external market has gone up, but the domestic market just hasn't kept up, so they say sugar demon; The people who lost money the next day thought that the stock market fell and there was no reason for sugar to rise. They remembered what others had said the day before, and they also called the devil candy. Day after day, the more people lose money and scold, the greater the reputation of the drugstore.
It is said that the sugar demon wants to scoop a ladle.
The reason why it is difficult for everyone to grasp the market of white sugar is mainly because of the natural attributes and fundamentals of varieties. On the one hand, China's sugar dependence on foreign countries is low, and the import volume in recent five cropping seasons is generally controlled below 5% of the total consumption, which determines that China's sugar price can be determined independently; On the other hand, sugar is between industrial products and agricultural products (00006 1, stock bar), which has the dual characteristics of large price fluctuation of industrial products and large seasonal fluctuation of agricultural products, so its price fluctuation is more flexible and changeable, and it is not surprising that the investment strategy without careful consideration will eventually lose a lot. The seasonal and cyclical fluctuations of white sugar futures can easily attract a large number of investors, who all want a share in the predictable market, which further aggravates the market volatility; In addition, sugar futures is a variety in which industrial capital participates in an all-round way, and almost all the main bodies of the sugar industry chain participate in it to some extent, which also makes more capital pile up together, and it is reasonable for the market to be independent of individual will.
There are many rules to follow in the sugar futures market.
If an investor is always responsible for himself, then he will calm down and study the market, so as to see a lot of certainty behind the so-called "demon". First, although the intraday fluctuation of sugar futures is disorderly, from a stage, the market is still developing in the direction of the trend, and the linkage between the internal and external markets is very high; Second, the seasonal fluctuation characteristics of white sugar futures are obvious. For example, in the years of tight supply and demand, sugar prices often show an upward trend from July to September; Third, capital analysis plays a great role in the sugar market. With the study of market capital flow, it is generally easy to understand the market trend in the next few days; Fourth, the policy of sugar futures is very strong. For example, when the State Reserve began to dump sugar in the new crop season, the futures price will continue to rise, and when it enters the intensive dumping period, the sugar price will gradually stagnate and show a downward trend in the following period.