According to the latest news, the price of wheat futures fell sharply in the Chicago futures trading market, which opened on Monday, falling to a nearly three-week low, leading to lower prices of corn and soybeans.
According to the news, since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Ukraine has been seeking ways to transport grain to Romanian Black Sea ports through the Danube to ensure grain exports.
Just last week, a cargo ship carrying 76,5438+0,000 tons of Ukrainian corn was completed in the Romanian Black Sea port of constanta, which indicates that this export channel will restart Ukraine's grain export market.
The news also said that another 80,000 tons of grain were also in the process of transportation.
In addition, data from Brazil also show that the country's corn exports will reach 850,000 tons in the first four months of this year, much higher than the level of 20,000 tons in the same period last year, which also eased the market's concerns about global food supply.
In the palm oil market, after Indonesia announced the ban on palm oil export business, Europe exchanged views with Malaysia, another palm oil exporter, on the use of palm oil and rapeseed oil as biofuels.
According to the latest news, Europe may restrict the use of rapeseed oil and palm oil in biofuels in view of the current tight global vegetable oil supply.
Affected by this news, most of the European Union rapeseed oil quotations fell slightly, with a ton 15-50 euros, and the Chicago soybean oil futures price also fell slightly to 82.84 cents per pound.
In addition, we also received news that due to Indonesia's restrictions on palm oil exports, it indirectly provided a considerable amount of labor for Malaysia, and about 32,000 Indonesian workers will quickly replenish the local palm chain to alleviate the persistent labor shortage.
But this does not mean that the market trend is clear.
At present, South Korea has made it clear that it will implement monitoring measures for palm oil supply, and India, which is the most affected, is considering further reducing import tariffs on edible oil.
Under the double impact of Ukrainian sunflower oil and Indonesian palm oil, the price of soybean oil, the world's largest vegetable oil, soared.
Last Thursday, the export price of Argentine soybean oil in South America reached as high as $0.900 per ton/kloc-0, or about RMB10.25 million yuan, up 57% year-on-year, reaching a new record high.
In the same period, the bidding price of sunflower oil in Turkey reached $20 10, which rose by $ kloc-0/15 within one month.
In addition, the United States, the most important grain exporter in the northern hemisphere, has recently delayed the transportation of grain and food due to the shortage of railway wagons and labor, which will adversely affect the recent grain trade.
In addition, India, which has recently played an important role in easing the international wheat supply situation, is currently experiencing the heat wave weather for the second month in a row, with the temperature soaring to nearly 40 degrees Celsius, which greatly reduces the market's expectation of wheat production in the new season.
According to the monitoring data, up to now, the export price of American wheat is still 439-497 USD/ton, the delivery price of French wheat is 437 USD/ton, and the price of second-class wheat in Shanghe, Argentina is 450 USD/ton, all of which are in historical high areas.
In the domestic market, last year, affected by rising raw material prices, the purchase price of Gan Yuan food palm oil rose by 43.25%, and the purchase price of Arowana palm oil and laurel oil also rose by more than 30%.
Since the end of last year, some food enterprises have seen a wave of large-scale price increases, but this strong increase this year may lead to further price increases in the market.
In the corn and wheat market, which we focus on purchasing and storing, the price of wheat has dropped at a high level recently due to the listing of new grain, but the mainstream price is still near 1.6 yuan, and the scheduled price of new wheat in some enterprises is as high as 1.4 yuan.
It is reported that, generally speaking, new wheat will not be put into the consumption field immediately after being listed, and it needs a ripening period of 1-2 months, which means that the mainstream cost price in the flour market will still be 1.6 yuan wheat.
Of course, for many ordinary consumers, if the price of steamed bread rises from 1 yuan to 1.5 yuan, the daily expenses of families will not increase too much, and edible oil will also increase, but the increase in corn price may have a wider impact.
Unlike the wheat that is about to usher in the new grain market, domestic corn is currently in a recession, and with the end of the increase in positions made by traders to buy wheat, the circulation of domestic corn is about to officially enter the downward channel, which is one of the main reasons for the slight increase in the overall price of domestic corn in recent days.
From the perspective of import channels, although China buyers bought millions of tons of corn in four times in April, with a total purchase amount of 4.54 million tons, the theoretical cost of importing corn from the United States has been above 3 100 yuan for quite some time, and the prices of substitutes such as sorghum and barley are also around 3,000 yuan.
Therefore, at present, the mainstream corn price in North China1.Obviously, there is still a rising momentum in 4 yuan.
The good news is that the country slightly lowered the reserve price of rice auction after May Day, which is expected to improve the substitutability of rice and corn.
In addition, it is rumored that the directional auction of rice will be restarted after May Day, but the reserve price of the auction may be slightly raised.
On the whole, with the support of imports and substitutes, there should be no big problem in market supply, but the cost will face greater upward pressure.
It is reported that the domestic egg price has started to rise, and the price of corn oil has also increased recently. In the pig breeding market in the mainstream field of corn consumption, pork prices seem to have entered the upward channel.
It is reported that although the market still has doubts about the price of live pigs and thinks that it has not yet reached the reversal time, from the price point of view, it is an indisputable fact that prices have continued to rise recently.
According to the pig price index released by Mu Xin. Com, May 1 day, the pig price in Guangdong exceeded 9 yuan/kg, and Huizhou and other places even reached 9.5 yuan/kg. On May 2nd, the national pig price was almost red, and the average price in Zhejiang and Fujian also broke through 8 yuan.
Finally, let's make a simple answer to a question raised by a netizen.
Some netizens asked, "The operating rate of corn deep processing enterprises has declined this year, and the current aquaculture industry is in a downturn. Does it mean that corn consumption is declining?"
We say that this market downturn is more relative to the market. For example, five years ago, the deep processing capacity of corn in China may be 30 million tons, and now the market demand has increased to 80 million tons. Even if the current operating rate is less than 50%, its market consumption will still far exceed that of previous years.
The same is true of the pig breeding industry. However, according to the data we got from various parties, there is no unified data on how much the production capacity of pig breeding industry in 20 19-202 1 China has expanded.