An epidemic has made the automobile industry, which is already in the "cold winter", worse again.
"Wuhan is closed", "isolated at home" and "delayed return to work" ... The hot words under the epidemic indicate that the automobile market will be more "south" in 2020.
Recently, IHS? Markit predicts that in the first quarter of 2020, China's automobile production will decrease by 65,438+00%.
Today, IHS? Markit put forward a new judgment: with the outbreak of the novel coronavirus epidemic, confirmed cases appeared all over the world, and the epidemic spread very quickly, which may lead to the long-term closure of factories, even lasting until mid-March, which will lead to a reduction of more than 6,543,800+0.7 million vehicles in China, down 32% year-on-year.
Automobile production and sales, press the pause button.
65438+1Wuhan closed on October 23rd.
A big "epidemic" swept the country at the beginning of the year.
Hubei is the center of the outbreak and an important part of China's automobile industry, contributing nearly 9% of China's automobile production capacity.
In Wuhan, there is a road called Dongfeng Avenue with a total length of 13 km, but there are nearly 20,000 enterprises along it. Among them, there are 7 complete vehicle enterprises, 2 automobile assembly plants/KLOC-0, more than 500 parts enterprises and 54 "Fortune 500". ? Now affected by the epidemic, all car companies, parts suppliers and related factories in Wuhan will be in a shutdown period.
According to the report of Lv Fei Automobile, on June 26th, 65438, Shenlong Automobile took the lead in issuing relevant announcements about postponing the resumption of production and work. Subsequently, the car companies in the Dongfeng Motor System, as well as Toyota, Honda, Hyundai and Renault, also announced that they would postpone the resumption of work until February 9, 2020.
In fact, the impact of the epidemic on automobile production is not limited to Hubei province, and "delaying the resumption of work" has become the decision of many automobile manufacturers across the country.
Tesla expects that the resumption time of the Shanghai factory will be delayed by one week or one and a half.
In addition, Ford's factories in Hangzhou and Chongqing also responded to the call of the local government to extend the Spring Festival holiday to prevent the spread of the epidemic.
It can be said that this "war epidemic" has caused many large car companies to press the "pause button".
This round of production suspension caused by the epidemic has a great impact on both Wuhan and the national automobile industry.
An Bofu, a multinational parts company, said that the measures to extend the holiday will reduce China's automobile production by 65,438+05% in the first quarter and by about 3% in the whole year.
Sig, former global director of FCA purchasing department? Huber said: "If the suspension of production is extended, production in other parts of the world will be interrupted."
Now, some parts companies have begun to look for alternatives. On June 30th, 65438, F-Tech, a Honda CR-V brake pedal supplier, announced that it would transfer the production of Wuhan factory to the factory in the Philippines. Because the production capacity here is not only for China, but also for Japan, the shutdown has a great impact, and the Philippine factories will also increase their production capacity to cope with it.
In addition to the interruption of production plan, sales are also facing a direct impact.
Dealers are a relatively fragile part of the automobile industry at present. The market decline since the second half of 20 18 has made dealers experience a faster and more cruel reshuffle than car manufacturers, and many businesses are on the verge of life and death.
For them, this epidemic is not only worse, but also worse.
Business hours have been postponed again and again, and the operating costs borne by enterprises have been seriously reversed. "Making ends meet" seems to be the key word of car dealers in the first quarter.
Many people think that 1 and the car sales data in February this year will be "on the street". According to a research report of "Analysis of the Impact of New Pneumonia Epidemic on Cars" in soochow securities, the epidemic situation and its delayed start-up will lead to a decline in the overall production and sales volume of the automobile industry in June 5438+0-February, and the probability that the output is lower than the sales volume is greater, and the industry as a whole will continue to move towards the warehouse stage.
Some insiders pointed out that "only when the epidemic situation is controlled, the sales end will gradually recover, but overall, the sales volume of the auto market will be further suppressed this year. It was originally expected that the decline would stop in 2020, but it is very difficult now. "
It is difficult to stage the car buying tide under SARS.
Will the auto market be more difficult in 2020?
17 years ago, in the face of the sudden SARS virus, everyone was in an uncertain state, but SARS gave the China automobile market a shot of "stimulant".
According to the automobile consulting data of Lv Fei, in 2003, the production and sales of automobiles were 4,443,700 and 4,390,800 respectively, up by 35.2% and 3,425,438+0% respectively.
"The SARS epidemic has prompted some people to be more willing to buy private cars and minimize contact with the public." It is reported that in April of that year, the average turnover rate of 4S in Jingmen Store reached 80%, far exceeding the previous 20%~30%. The scene at the terminal is, "If there is a car in the exhibition hall, you can sell it. Cars, like masks and disinfectants, suddenly became a tight commodity. "
"Although this epidemic may have a similar impact, it is unlikely to repeat the automobile market in 2003." Some insiders pointed out.
Compared with 17 years ago, the economic situation and automobile consumption market in China are completely different. This epidemic may not become an "unexpected hand" to promote automobile consumption like SARS in that year.
At that time, China's economy was growing at a high speed of 10%, and China's automobile consumption market was in an unprecedented and even difficult rising period.
However, at the beginning of 2020, the automobile market in China has experienced more than one year of cold winter, and the market demand saturation is one of the reasons. The overall trend of the auto market is an 8.2% year-on-year sales decline environment, so from a macro perspective, it is difficult for the auto market to achieve a substantial increase in sales under the epidemic environment.
This epidemic is bound to add insult to injury to the automobile market in China.
From now on, some car companies with low anti-risk ability are likely to withdraw from the competition; For some new car manufacturers, the delay in financing window caused by the spread of disease is a heavy blow.
In addition, not only new car transactions, upstream and downstream parts, used cars, dealer systems, as well as start-ups with travel, autonomous driving and car networking technologies, have to go through a barrier this time.
However, everything has two sides, just as a coin has two sides, the epidemic will also be a double-edged sword for the auto market.
After the epidemic, car companies will start a new round of comprehensive strength contest, and the industry reshuffle process will also be promoted. By then, the China automobile market, which has already completed the survival of the fittest, will usher in a more healthy development.
As Yin Tongyue, Chairman of Chery Automobile, said: Only when it snows in winter will the wheat grow better in the coming year.
In addition, there are new opportunities in any market.
For example, JD.COM and Taobao were born in the "SARS" campaign 0/7 years ago. For the automobile industry, Internet-centered marketing methods such as automobile e-commerce and new retail will be taken seriously again.
Weilai Automobile said that they will make some targeted adjustments in marketing, such as online communication with users through social platforms such as live broadcast. Although these online marketing activities are difficult to bring significant increments, brand marketing in a special period is also an attempt.
"It doesn't matter if you sell it or not, mainly to ease the tension; It doesn't matter whether you buy it or not, mainly to give you a feeling of shopping. " Xia Qinghua, general manager of Weilai Shanghai Regional Company, wrote when making a live announcement in a circle of friends.
SAIC-Volkswagen and GAC Chuanqi seem to have "sniffed" the change of this wind direction, and successively launched related functions such as "3D interactive car selection" and "VR car watching" on the Internet, trying to take the lead in gathering popularity during this period and "build momentum" for future sales.
The exploration of this diversified marketing model is undoubtedly a useful attempt to find another way for the automobile market in the current adjustment period.
Of course, persistence means everything under the epidemic.
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.