Open high and walk low, and the support can suck low.
Before the market opened higher and went lower, many friends were thinking, how to go higher? In fact, it is very simple, because the main line of the daily line is around 2282, unless it is higher than this point, it should be normal to go down. As far as the current situation is concerned, the market once dived to the vicinity of the weekly express line 22 14, and began to pull back after being supported. 15 minutes, the Niuxiong line is currently around 2 182, which is basically consistent with the gap formed on Monday. If the stock index has the action of quickly exploring and covering the gap, radical investors may wish to open positions again. Of course, there are certain risks in buying here, which is the five-minute lifeline. As an important indicator to judge the market, this line cannot be effectively sold, otherwise the market will face deeper adjustment. In addition, from the perspective of capital flow, there was a net outflow of funds in the two cities yesterday, about 2.234 billion in Shanghai and 65.438+65.8 billion in Shenzhen. If the outflow momentum cannot be alleviated as soon as possible, the market risk will further increase.
Judging from the operation of the market before Thursday, the author's 5-minute lifeline of the market closed near 2 129, and quickly moved up to 13. As the index breaks through this lifeline again, the lifeline also turns its head upwards, excluding the particularly negative drag, and the stock index will start to fluctuate on this lifeline in the afternoon. In addition, judging from the operation of the top and bottom indicators in each period, the top and bottom indicators broke before 15 minutes, and the morphological observation showed no signs of stopping falling and stabilizing. It is expected that the short-term stock index will continue to adjust or fluctuate.
In addition, from the 60-minute MACD operation, the DIF and DEA of the 60-minute MACD of the Shanghai Composite Index are running well, and the DIF and DEA are now once again 65 hours. If the follow-up hot spots and trading volume can keep up effectively, it is expected that the stock index will still have the potential to rise again after full shock. Pressure levels 2285 and 2696, support levels 22 14 and 2 185. (Zhan Feng)
Adjustment brings low suction opportunities.
It opened slightly higher in early trading and started a callback. Since 2000, the short-selling market has come to an end and the adjustment has begun. On February 9th, the gaps of 2 185 and 2 196 became the first adjustment target. As I said yesterday, the extremely strong adjustment should be carried out around the 5-day moving average, and the adjustment time should be in days. In other words, don't place too much hope on intraday adjustment, because there is an adjustment signal on the daily K-line: MACD red column line converges, KDJ is dead at a high level, and it can only be repaired after intraday adjustment, but the relationship between DIF and DEA in MACD indicators is still good, indicating that the market trend has not changed. In early trading, the Shanghai Composite Index fell below the upper rail of the BOLL channel, indicating that the short market has come to an end, but the trumpet of the upper and lower rails is still expanding, which also indicates that the upward trend has not changed.
In terms of short-term indicators, on the 60-minute K-line chart, the red bar line of MACD indicator converges to zero, and the green bar line begins to appear. DIF has been dead with DEA, which indicates that the short-term adjustment has just begun, and the KDJ indicator has rapidly dropped from the overbought area. The J-line has not bottomed out yet, and the K-line and D-line are still on the road of rapid decline, and the adjustment will not end too soon. However, in the 30-minute indicator, the J line of KDJ has quickly bottomed out, and K and D are about to bottom out. It can be seen that although the market is adjusting, it may be repeated in the short term.
The expected adjustment has come, but it does not mean that the opportunity for individual stocks is gone. Pay attention to the strong stocks that began to adjust before the market in the early stage, and attract low near their 10 moving average according to market conditions. Control the position and wait for the opportunity. (two trees)
Five bad news came together. In recent years, A shares have a new feature.
Today's news: The second working meeting of the leading group of securities and futures industry informatization was held in Beijing a few days ago. The meeting held that in 2008, the information security level of the securities and futures industry was greatly improved as a whole, and arrangements were made for doing the key work in 2009, requiring that the situation of vigorously promoting information security in the whole industry remain unchanged, and doing the key work such as legal system construction, emergency preparedness and network security. Gui Minjie, vice chairman of China Securities Regulatory Commission and leader of the leading group for informatization of securities and futures industry, presided over the meeting and gave important instructions.
According to the latest statistics of the National Defense General Administration, the drought-affected areas of cultivated land and crops in China are 274 million mu and 65.438+0.34 billion mu respectively, of which 37.6 376. 1.00 million mu is severely drought and 46.5438+0.60 million mu is drought. There are different degrees of drought in 15 provinces and cities across the country. Henan, Anhui, Shanxi, Shandong and other provinces have started the first-level response to severe drought, and winter wheat, which accounts for about 20% of China's annual grain output, faces the risk of production reduction.
According to customs statistics, China's total import and export value in June was15438+ 10/800 million US dollars, down 29% year-on-year, and the decline was 17.9 percentage points higher than that of last month. Among them, the export decreased by 17.5%, and the decline deepened by 14.7 percentage points; Imports decreased by 43. 1%, and the decline rate deepened by 2 1.8 percentage points. The trade surplus was $39 1 100 million, up 102% year-on-year, hitting a record high in a single month.
The injection of assets by major shareholders has become the main thrust of the performance growth of listed companies in 2008. According to the statistics of this newspaper, half of the listed companies that have published annual reports and increased their net profit by more than 30% bought assets from major shareholders last year, and injecting assets has become the most important driving factor for the performance of these companies without exception.
In 2007, six listed insurance companies that benefited from the double performance of the bull market in the securities market are now suffering from the bitterness brought by the bear market. Up to now, five insurance companies listed in the Mainland and Hong Kong have issued performance warnings for 2008, and the profits of all five insurance companies have been pre-lost or pre-reduced to varying degrees. China People's Insurance Company (2328. Hong kong, which has not released its performance forecast, is also facing the same dilemma in 2008. However, with the gradual improvement of the economic situation, insurance companies are expected to usher in a turnaround in 2009.
In the early period of the Spring Festival, the Ministry of Finance issued the Notice on Issues Related to the Salary Management of Heads of Financial State-owned and State-controlled Enterprises (hereinafter referred to as the Notice) to all relevant units. The document mentions that "state-owned and state-controlled financial enterprises in various countries should reasonably control the salaries of heads of institutions at all levels according to the current situation, so as to avoid further widening the gap with the average income level of society and the income level of employees within enterprises. We must resolutely prevent it from being divorced from the national conditions, from the current economic situation, from the development of the industry and from actually paying excessive salaries. "
On Thursday, the Shanghai Composite Index remained strong. Although the continuous rise has accumulated more profit-taking, but the support plan continues to appear. Driven by the money-making effect of hot plates and rising stocks, the market continues to interpret the speculation myth of plates and stocks, and investor confidence is fully stimulated. But from a technical point of view, because there is no stock market that only rises and does not adjust, there is greater pressure to continue to rise. Therefore, we believe that the short-term market will enter a wide fluctuation pattern.
The signs of plate rotation are particularly obvious. Shipbuilding, Expo concept, transportation, venture capital concept, Shanghai local, military industry, electronic information, etc. Rising in succession, individual stock opportunities emerge one after another. It can be considered that the current speculation atmosphere in the market is very good, which is very suitable for radical investors to make short-term speculation. However, due to the continuous rise of non-ferrous metals for several days, institutions may sell this plate crazily yesterday. For investors, it is best to sell high-priced stocks with large gains and continue to hold cover stocks. At present, the bullish momentum in adjustment is still strong. The two cities not only have many daily limit boards, but also have no daily limit boards. Whether it is intraday or closing, there is no daily limit. This is not easy in the current situation of more profit-taking, and it also leads to the failure of my low-smoking plan. Of course, although I didn't succeed in low inhalation, I kept the normal operation rhythm and didn't disturb my mentality because of yesterday's big shock. Besides, I believe the shock is not over yet. As a dishwasher, the current strength is not enough. Yesterday, we could stay strong. There should be a long inertia, and short sellers in the market will fight back. This is also reflected in the market's 60-minute indicator, in which the 60-minute MACD indicator has reached the critical point of adjustment. There will be a market reaction in the last two trading days of this week, and there should be a reaction as soon as today, so the market will provide new low-sucking opportunities, which is the time for structural adjustment of positions.
Market analysts believe that today's stock market has five negative effects. A negative impact is that the import and export of 1 month recorded a record decline, and the Ministry of Commerce promoted products made in China all over the world. Negative 2 65438+ 1010.6 trillion new credit only flows between banks and is not invested in entities. The average daily reduction of non-size and non-size reached a one-year high since February. Negative four 65438+ decreased by 0.9% year-on-year and 0.2% quarter-on-quarter. In July, the decline in urban house prices expanded. The negative five comes from many aspects, and it is very likely that the GEM will be launched after May 1. According to the analysis of the investment banking industry, it is not excluded that the IPO of the small and medium-sized board will be opened before the official opening of the GEM.
In recent years, A shares have a new feature. If US stocks plummet, A shares will inevitably rise after opening lower. The only difference is how much to pull, and whether to fall back in the afternoon. Us stocks rose sharply, and a shares often opened higher and went lower.
There are few such characteristics in the surrounding stock markets, and there is no suspense. Under normal circumstances, US stocks fall, and they also fall, with few exceptions. There are many reasons for this difference, and some people may say that the main force of A shares likes anti-technology operation. The author believes that if the A-share market is fully circulated and distributed, and the information disclosure is more standardized, then this market feature will be reduced. For example, who will take a highly transparent spot of government bonds to do the opposite? If you persist, you will not be able to fool your opponent, but you will fool yourself first.
The way to deal with this feature of A shares is simple. In case of "unexpected" good or bad, you can do it at the opening, and then do it after two waves in the morning, so it can't be said that it is a hundred shots, but it is close.
However, the author believes that the decline of US stocks is either because the demand of international investors is too great, or people make excuses after the decline. The market often uses the results to push back the reasons, and rumors often arise from the results. For example, when it goes up, it is easy to spread good news, and when it goes down, it is easy to spread bad news, even if there is no news.
I don't think the problem lies in the American rescue plan, but the real reason lies in the "hopeless" American economy itself. Americans can win so many Nobel Prizes. If there is a good way, are they afraid that they can't figure it out rationally? Therefore, it is because people have a vague understanding of "incorrigible" that they have been waiting for a long time and found it useless, so they complain that the rescue plan is retarded.
The original problem in the United States was excessive consumption. For example, houses are consumed by people who have no money. Although all the rescue plans seem to be varied on the surface, the essence is to promote consumption, such as encouraging cars and houses. What is this? If Americans save more to solve this fundamental structural problem, the economic recession will be further aggravated in the short term, so there is no way to solve this contradiction at all. This is a historical debt and an unreasonable pattern of interest distribution. Why do Americans just splurge and developing countries just work? Not relying on money? The author has always believed that the United States has owed too much old debts for decades, and this time it is time for a thorough liquidation.
Tuesday's bailout plan includes tax cuts for car purchases. If it is used in China and in the United States, it will be funny because of insufficient domestic consumption, which is similar to a drug addict taking another sip to relieve symptoms because of serious adverse reactions. Interestingly, they actually thought to themselves, "Stop smoking after this difficult period."
Regarding the broader market, the author still holds the original view that the stock index may fluctuate around 2300 points, and then decide the direction according to the improvement or deterioration of the economy. In operation, investors can cash in some cash on rallies.
The market will drop 2200 points today, which is disturbed by the ten-line. It is recommended to wait and see.