Not so mysterious, mainly considering the overall financial risk. Don't always be a conspiracy theory.

During the epidemic, the consumption data was poor, and the default rate of short-term consumer loans soared. In fact, the central authorities have cracked down on the winning numbers. Finance is our grey rhinoceros, and there can be no systemic risk.

On financial crisis, unstable mechanism and imperfect market economy.

Key words: conspiracy theory, Song Hongbing, consumption, risk, crisis.

First, it really doesn't make much sense to look at the world with conspiracy theories. There are too many conspiracy theories about finance.

Since finance is related to money, I said that finance is actually borrowing money to pay back the money. Moreover, he can use many concepts, formulas, theories and proper nouns, and ordinary people have less contact with him, so everyone thinks he is very tall.

Many people have a very simple way to explain what they can't understand, that is, conspiracy theory, that is, there are a handful of bad elements in this world who want to fuck everyone, then Jews, then financial capital, and then these people make waves and dare to do anything bad. A scary group.

The most typical one is Currency War written by Mr. Song, a great god. It is a conspiracy novel, similar to assassination novels and fantasy novels.

The result is regarded as a classic by many people and told to others everywhere. In the past, a leader in our unit recommended it to others. Everyone should read this book, how excellent it is. I was embarrassed when Americans tried to fuck us. I don't know how he feels.

Again, if you want to mix well, if you want to know the essence of things, then try not to look at the world with conspiracy theories, because conspiracy theories can't be proved and falsified.

Everything you say is right, everything you say is right, but it's useless, just can't solve the problem. If you can't make a normal decision and feel that everyone is hurting you, how can you live?

In fact, the most important thing is to do something popular and understand some basic principles, so that you won't believe in conspiracy theories anymore.

For example, the essence of finance is actually managing money and financing it. What I want to say is to borrow money to pay back the money, regardless of insurance, trust, options, futures, derivatives, hedging, gambling agreements, swap interest rates.

In essence, it is to buy and sell loans, and then allocate resources in the long or short term. Because of the deep integration of modern economy and finance, money often goes first and other resources follow. Price to configure, so finance is very important, that's all, it's no big deal.

Having said that, let's talk about ants.

Second, consumption is getting worse and worse, and the gap between the rich and the poor is getting bigger and bigger. What we should guard against is systemic financial risks.

If we want to stop the little ants this time, we must first talk about the economic situation after the epidemic.

The epidemic is an impact on the global economy. The economy is directly locked, and everyone can't go to work, go out and buy things, so the trade and operation of the economy are directly locked. This situation is unprecedented and very harmful.

Think about it, as a small boss, you borrowed a sum of money to start a company, and you are about to do something big. As a result, the epidemic came and nothing could be sold. But you have to pay interest on the money you borrow, and there is a time limit. It is time. You can't make money if you don't sell your things. You must pay your debts. What if you don't pay them? What if the whole society is inferior to you? And then it's over.

This is the damage caused by the epidemic, which is very terrible. Although the country has taken various measures, although we have controlled the epidemic in time, although we have resumed production and reduced taxes and fees for small enterprises, the impact is still very serious.

As I said before, I am not so optimistic about the future economy, and the most critical indicator is consumption. Although our investment has recovered well, our residents' consumption has never recovered to the level before the epidemic, and now it has reached a state of deflation, that is, the demand is sluggish and the people can't afford it.

What do ants mainly do? Ant is mainly a company that provides short-term loans for short-term consumption. That is to say, I take the money out of the bank, and then I become a second-hand dealer, and then I give the money to people in need, and I take the handling fee in the middle.

And who use ants the most? They are all young people, who are often just entering the society. I am not afraid of anything, I have no accumulation and no experience. And relatively speaking, they are all people with little money. How do you think that rich people can engage in short-term consumption reception? It is a fact that the default rate of short-term loans nearly doubled during the epidemic.

In fact, our country's debt level is already very high, and the country has repeatedly stressed that there can be no systematic financial risks. This word is familiar to everyone, but I guess many people don't know what it means.

I said that finance is nothing more than borrowing money to pay back the money. It is easy to borrow money. The key is that you can pay back the money and interest. Then what is risk? The risk is that you can't afford it. The systemic risk is that everyone can't afford to pay back, or many, many people can't afford to pay back.

A large number of residents' loans in our country are actually long-term loans on houses. As we all know, the problem is that people believe in houses. Moreover, most people who can afford to buy a house have plans, and he will bite the bullet and pay back the mortgage, because this amount is too big for many people to afford.

But this short-term consumer loan is hard to say. Their own house is heavily in debt. Coupled with consumer loans, many young people are irrational. It is irrational for them to borrow one card and borrow another. It was only a temporary happiness, and no one made mistakes when he was young.

Mortgage and corporate loans are easier said than done, and the state can control them directionally. But if this problem happens to thousands of people in Qian Qian, how can you control it? Dealing with an elephant means dealing with millions of ants. Where do you start?

Debt is often a ring. You owe me, I owe him, and he owes him. If he doesn't pay me back, he won't pay me back. If I have no money, I can't pay back the bank. This is the so-called system, and everyone is in the same boat. No one can guarantee their immunity. This is the characteristic of modern financial system, and creditor's rights and debts go deep into production and life.

Once the ant is put on the market, its volume will increase geometrically, and this power is self-evident. So if you must say that he is a nuclear bomb, that should be what you mean.

Third, financial debt is indeed an unstable mechanism of market economy, and this system may not be perfect.

Finally, talk about it from the root. I think from the root, this is an unstable mechanism in the market economy.

In the past, everyone thought that the market could rationally allocate resources, prevent the price from being too high and too low, and let the production continue effectively.

However, if this statement is to be established, it must first be based on the so-called demand decline curve, which means that the more expensive things are, the less people are willing to buy them. For example, milk may be too expensive, so you don't drink it. Just drink water. For example, pork is too expensive, so you may not eat it, so you don't eat meat.

But debt is different. Debt is unstable. It doesn't mean that if you borrow more, you won't borrow it. You can borrow more. You may lose your mind, you may not pay back the money, you may die, or there is nothing you can do.

For example, you are a small boss, you are a young man, you borrowed money, and you expect the future economy to be good. Because in the past, your income has been rising, and your things have been selling at good prices. As long as things are rising, as long as human capital is rising again, everything will be fine.

But the moon has ups and downs, people have joys and sorrows, and the economy alternates between depression and prosperity. Because of various reasons, such as epidemic, economic depression, things can't be sold at a price, and you are unemployed.

But you borrowed a lot of money before. You have to pay not only the principal but also the interest. At this time, you have no income and things can't be sold at a price. How do you pay back the money?

This is the unstable mechanism in the market economy, and this is debt. When people borrow money, they often follow their own nature. I don't know whether the future is good or bad, but I always feel that the future will be good. I borrowed a lot, but I can't pay it back.

If a large number of people, or even all of them, can't do it, then enterprises will close down, banks will close down and the economy will stop running.

I have written many articles before. Money now is not a treasure of the past, not a physical asset, but a kind of liquidity. It must be transferred, and there must be money to let people have media when they trade. Once the debt is too high, people don't pay off their debts, and all the money is used to pay off their debts, so people in society have no money. If you have no money, you can't pay your debts. If you can't pay your debts, you will have no money, production will stop, and the whole society will encounter economic crisis and financial crisis. It is likely to collapse.

Conclusion. There are many conspiracies about finance. I hope you don't look at the world with conspiracy theories, but understand some common sense at the bottom. Finance is actually the allocation of resources, that is, borrowing money to pay back the money and let the money flow.

This epidemic has had a great impact on our economy. The debt is high and the consumption is low. The problem of Xiao Ant this time is actually to prevent systemic financial risks, so that everyone can't get loans, factories stop working and banks go bankrupt.

Debt mechanism is an unstable mechanism in market economy. It won't come down because of the high price. It may make people borrow irrationally. Once the economy turns cold, people stop making money. Failure to pay debts led to unemployment and the Great Depression. What we are doing now is to avoid this situation.

The key is not whether the nuclear bomb is nuclear, but who has it.

At the Shanghai Financial Summit, Ali proposed to create digital currency with so-called financial technology with less supervision.

This is a very dangerous statement. Finance has a history of thousands of years, and the earliest barter has hidden the shadow of finance.

In the history of China, the crisis of every dynasty was due to financial problems, and wealth had to be concentrated in one direction of big landlords and big capitalists, but the result was the opposite reaction.

The widening gap between the rich and the poor is one of the original sins of the current turmoil in the United States, and the rapid technology and Internet-based finance are accelerating this trend. This year, the surge in technology stocks has produced a billion-dollar millionaire, a hundred times faster than ten years ago!

Ma Yun is already the richest man. He wants to use the listing of Ant Financial to further lock in the income of financial elites and supervise them.

He is opening Pandora's box!

99% of p2p is dead. At the peak of our country, there were 6,000 p2p companies. At present, there are only eight, and the market value is ugly.

The horse vowed to say:

"These P2Ps are dead because they are not real Internet finance and don't understand big data!"

Know that big data will not die?

The core reason for the death of these companies is to take advantage of the lack of supervision, copy a large number of ordinary people's money from the Internet, and cut off access to managers' accounts through various means such as false investment and false financing.

A few died of not knowing big data!

Today, Ant Financial has repeatedly stressed that it is a technology company, but what cannot be changed is that its profits come from issuing small loans to borrowers, issuing consumer loans to borrowers, and collecting personal deposits of 65.438+0.4 billion yuan through Yu 'ebao and putting them into various wealth management products to earn high management fees and flow fees.

If this situation is not effectively regulated, big data will only create systemic risks, repeatedly enlarge the loan amount, turn a large number of students and migrant workers who have no borrowing ability into debts, and have to spend most of their daily income on debt repayment.

Supervision makes our money safer. As we all know, after Ma Yun launched Yu 'ebao, he always claimed to subsidize interest for the people of the whole country. Its interest once reached an annualized income of 7%, which also made a large number of bank deposits move to Yu' ebao. The fund was once close to 1.9 trillion.

However, no money fund can manage such a large scale and still guarantee income. With the increasing scale, the income of Yu 'ebao is declining.

In order to avoid systemic risks, the state stipulates that the balance of Alipay must be prepared, and it cannot be automatically rolled into the balance treasure, but must be operated by users themselves.

With the implementation of this regulation and the decline of Yu 'ebao's income, users have become more and more aware of the essence of finance. At the same time, banks have also launched similar monetary funds in a timely manner, with lower management fees and higher returns.

This stopped the rapid upward trend of Yu 'ebao and prevented Ma Yun's Yu 'ebao from being the only one.

At present, the size of funds in Tian Hong is about 1.4 trillion, and the income is less than 2%, which can be said to be better than most money funds.

In addition to the limited level of fund managers, a large amount of funds were taken away by Ant Financial as management fees and channel fees.

Is it better to buy money funds directly through bank channels or earn a high price difference through middlemen?

Who is superior and who is inferior is clear at a glance!

Ants use big data to analyze loans. Did you ask us? Ma Yun's most proud words at the Shanghai Summit are:

Companies that do internet finance must have the ability to analyze big data, so as to avoid risks and reduce the problem of loan recovery! "

It really sounded the alarm. It turns out that I usually shop on Taobao, buy breakfast through Alipay, and even the ant credit scores of some of my friends are clearly analyzed by ants.

Then he used the data to advertise for me, provide me with a loan amount, and ask my relatives and friends for a loan.

Did the ants ask all of us about it?

I specifically inquired about domestic laws on user data protection.

China law clearly stipulates that:

"Commercial Banks Law" stipulates that "commercial banks should follow the principle of confidentiality for depositors",

Real-name registration system Regulations on Personal Deposit Accounts stipulates that "unless otherwise stipulated by laws and regulations, financial institutions shall not provide personal deposit account information to any unit or individual".

Then, why does Ma Yun claim that Ant Financial is not a financial institution, but a technology company, as if technology companies can be unregulated?

I am finally relieved. The Science and Technology Innovation Board talked with the executives of Ant Financial Services, telling them that Ant Financial Services also needs supervision, and there must be sufficient reserves for lending, so that ordinary people can't lose money with high-tech financial instruments that ordinary users don't understand.

Even the Yu 'ebao account can't lose so much at once, and it doesn't explain why!

If Ant Financial is a financial institution, not a technology institution, then obviously its valuation must be re-evaluated!

So Tencent is very smart, and Ma said:

"We should play the role of digital assistant, work with product partners to develop Pratt & Whitney's digital ecology, and strive to divide digital dividends from every ordinary user!"

He will never put himself at a height that has climbed to the top, and one will see and say anything that should be deregulated.

Therefore, we must supervise Internet financial institutions. Only in this way, millions of investors' money will not buy villas and houses for ant employees in vain, so that they can upgrade and share interest.

So when the nuclear bomb is not sent, it has a deterrent effect. Yeah, yeah, yeah. This time, the regulator banned it. He said in the announcement that it will be rectified after half a year.

I think, don't underestimate this small half year. After half a year, the bubble of technology stocks may be punctured, and more than a dozen Internet payment companies similar to Alipay have been set up. Deposits have been transferred from Yu 'ebao, and digital currency wallets have been paid worldwide.

In any case, it is a mistake to hate people for ten years and then look back at unreasonable people!

I don't believe it will reopen in six months.

Take care, ants!

Poetry cloud:

Ants move and store,

Supervision is late, everything is new,

If we innovate this truth,

Why is Yu 'ebao lighter?

Yangzi city's share price rose,

Throwing high notes at the table on the Bund,

Who would have thought that a slip of the tongue would become a laughing stock,

That's when you know, Kim, the securities regulator!

Ant Financial has invested 3 billion yuan in Chongqing and borrowed 6 billion yuan from banks. Then use this 90 to lend, Chongqing requires its loan scale not to exceed 20 billion, but Ant Financial packages the creditor's rights by means of creditor's rights securitization and repeatedly lends 300 billion. In other words, Ant Financial has its own funds of 3 billion, but the scale of lending through various means has reached 300 billion, and this 300 billion is unsecured small loans, and the leverage has reached more than 100 times. While lending a lot of money to young people without mortgage, they mortgaged these debts to the bank. The ant itself only used 3 billion yuan to make a loan scale of 300 billion yuan, and these loans reached an annualized rate of 18%. The interest rate of the money ants take from the bank is only a few cents, which is the time when the intermediary lies down to earn the difference and suck the blood of society. You got it? This is how Lehman Brothers played in those days, which caused the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States. Typical subprime loans use high leverage to make unsecured loans. Once the scale of bad debts reaches a certain level, it will form a financial nuclear bomb, which will spread throughout the country. Now ant is listed, with a valuation of 68.8 and a financing scale of 3 trillion. Isn't it obvious that the whole country is going to die? If the listing is successful, the lifting of the ban on stocks will create a large number of billionaires, and all the national investors will be leeks. The financial explosion will make the whole society pay the bill, but ants will all become billionaires. Ant had planned to go public in the United States, but it was strongly opposed by members of the US Congress. Without success, even the Imperial Capital of the United States is afraid of hurting American investors, but wants to make money in the China stock market to dig holes and bury investors. Sadly, there are still a bunch of people who have been sold, helping to count money and waving flags and shouting for Ma Yun.