My structural analysis is as follows
In the first chapter, positioning is performed by using periodic insertion. With the help of the performance of commodities in the historical cycle, we can refer to the future trend of commodities as a reference and guide for the future trend of commodities.
First, use the cycle to locate. The same cycle stage is similar to the economic background, and the similar time background stage is located by cycle. ?
Positioning factors: With reference to spatial structure and time width, the factors that must be considered and included in positioning are as follows.
1, the highest point and the lowest point are used as positioning reference indicators.
2. Time width is used as a reference.
The cycle is the result of many factors, including the participation of large capital, the participation of the public and the influence of national policies. Therefore, the cycle cannot be measured by a certain index, because the cycle already contains many factors, and it is the result of the joint action of many factors. Cycle is the result of greed and fear of human nature at all levels of society, so cycle will certainly cycle, just like the cycle of human life.
Chapter two, my operating system. It is my operating system, which ensures me to avoid danger (after buying, the market does not meet my expectations, stop loss as planned, no loss or less loss) and seize the opportunity (after buying, when the market meets my expectations, I will add heavy positions). Not macro data or news. ?
First set up my operating system: buying and selling discipline, explaining the operation (you must follow this operation, otherwise you can't sleep at night);
The logic of operation is: I must meet or wait for the big market to make money, and the plan is to make a planned test and add positions according to the big market. The market fluctuates in disorder within the shock range, and the market rises and falls irregularly. My experience tells me that no matter how high or low the position is, I will lose money every time I participate. If I do the right thing in the futures market, I will make money. If I do something wrong, I will lose money. Therefore, in order to seize or wait for the market, considering that futures is a trial and error game, I must do the following:
If the market meets my forecast, do it, do it, and if the market does not meet my forecast, come out. If the market is inconsistent with my forecast or even incomprehensible, I won't do it. Don't have the idea of a rookie who wants to participate in any market. That is, knowing how to advance and retreat, knowing how to choose. Don't participate in markets that don't suit you. I don't think a market without market and odds will participate in the general direction of the market. Only by making a lot of money can you become a mature speculator.
Market trading means that I have my own plan every day and everything is done according to the plan. If the market is inconsistent with my plan, that is, the market is not suitable for my operating system, then I will not move. Don't improvise a rookie's idea.
1. Probation position and position increase
1. Try the warehouse only near the operation warning line, and the position must be small. Because futures is a trial-and-error game, most trial positions are mistakes in hindsight, and wrong trial positions are losses. So I only test the positions near the operational warning line when the spatial structure and time width of the market are basically consistent with my prediction.
If the market has been fluctuating around the buying price line after the jiacang purchase, because the choice point I bought is the point where the space and time width meet the breakthrough, so after I tried it three times, the market still fluctuates around the buying price, which is very dangerous, and the market is likely to be inconsistent with my expectations; At this time, I should withdraw from my position, or set a condition list higher (or lower) than the current shock price. Because I preset a big market breakthrough, the condition list with higher current shock price I set can avoid the current dangerous trend of shock. If there is a big market, I will not miss the next big market.
If you have missed the operational nature line before buying and selling, you will also face the psychological pressure of not having a certain profit to fight against market fluctuations. So it is very important to buy and sell at the moment of crossing the natural line. Buying in advance is gambling, and buying after missing it is psychological passivity.
2. jiacang: only after the trial warehouse is successful, that is, after doing the right thing, do jiacang. After the success of the first time, the second time can be added. The trial position should be small. When the market breaks through the natural line, increase the position at one time. Don't add positions by dividing them into small positions at a time. If the market is in line with my forecast, I usually fill all the positions in two or three times.
3. When testing and adding positions near the warning line, be sure to stop loss. Try or add positions near the warning line or natural line, don't be afraid to try several times, because the handling fee is not much. When the market rose and broke through the natural line I thought, I bought more orders at this time. If the market turns down and breaks through the original natural line after multiple orders, I will empty the newly added positions. If the market goes up and breaks through my natural line again, I will pay more. The handling fee is not a lot of money, but the wide stop loss loses a lot of money. Once the market turns, the loss will be even greater. The principle of trial jiacang is not to lose money, not to lose money, and the handling fee is not much.
4. If I do it right, the market will be consistent with my forecast and the market will be very smooth; If it is still incorrect to test positions three times frequently and quit first, the market trend is likely to be different from what I predicted.
Second, the reaction after the position.
Market transactions should have standards. If I try to open a position or add a position successfully, it means that the market is likely to be consistent with the historical market trend I predicted. Then I will use my predicted historical market as a reference for the next operation.
1, rising market: If the current market shows a sharp rise like the historical market, I will buy it at the signal price that is determined to be a sharp rise.
2. Market consolidation: If the consolidation range of the current market is the same as that of the historical market, that is, the fluctuation range is relatively small, I will hold it in the consolidation market.
3. Market decline: If the current market falls as sharply as the historical market, I will empty or lighten my position at a price lower than the consolidation market.
The third chapter, the daily market reaction (after the position, there should be a response plan. What should I do if I go up, what should I do if I fall, and what should I do if I wander? )
The purpose of this chapter is to make more money and less money. Look at the right heavy position, but read the wrong stop loss. Business must be carefully calculated to make money.
1. If the market develops as follows,
The current plan is as follows