According to media reports, the Russian and Ukrainian sides held a new round of face-to-face talks at the marbach Palace in Istanbul on the 29th, which lasted about three hours. Russian Deputy Defense Minister Fu Ming said on the 29th that Russia has decided to significantly reduce its military activities in Kiev and chernigov.

Friends who have been paying attention to Russian-Ukrainian military operations recently know that since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict, the two sides have been fighting and talking, but the first four negotiations have not made substantial progress. Although the Russian-Ukrainian negotiations have not made substantial progress, the international crude oil price has risen sharply because of this military conflict. On March 29th, the fifth round of Russian-Ukrainian negotiations made substantial progress: Mezinski, head of the Russian delegation, said that Russia had received a written proposal from Ukraine to confirm its willingness to remain neutral and nuclear-free; At the same time, Russia also made concessions and did not object to Ukraine's accession to the European Union, saying that it could arrange a meeting between the two heads of state and initialled the flameout treaty. After the talks, Russia indicated its decision to significantly reduce its military activities in Kiev and chernigov, so as to create more favorable conditions for the next talks. It can be seen from the contents of the negotiations between the two sides that Ukraine may eventually abandon the establishment of foreign military bases and foreign troops on its territory and promise not to hold military exercises without consulting Russia and security countries.

? ? In my opinion, in fact, a single political event or military action is not a long-term factor affecting the economy, financial markets and international high oil prices, but a short-term behavior. In 2022, the international oil price was mainly influenced by geopolitical and financial factors, showing a trend of rising first and then falling. Under the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine, after four rounds of negotiations, Russia and Ukraine have reached a turning point of reconciliation, and energy prices will remain at a high level, perhaps falling after negotiations and reconciliation. In fact, there is no real energy shortage in today's world, but the rise in oil prices caused by individual events. For example, as we all know, after the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan and other military operations, the international oil price rose at a high level, but then returned to a relatively reasonable price range. We also learned the good news of the oil price decline from relevant media reports. It is reported that new york oil price once fell below the integer mark of 100 USD during the pre-market hours of US stocks, and the international oil price fell on March 29th. As of the close of the 29th, the price of light crude oil futures for May delivery in the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by 1.72 USD to close at 104.24 USD per barrel, with a decrease of1.62%; London Brent crude oil futures for May delivery fell 2.25 USD to close at 1 10.23 USD per barrel, a decrease of 2%.

I believe that the Russian-Ukrainian negotiations have released a signal of reconciliation to us and eased the world's concerns about energy supply. At present, supported by the slowdown of Russian-Ukrainian military operations and the good news released by the fifth round of negotiations between the two sides, the space for further sharp rise in oil prices will change, and it is expected that oil prices may fall back.