The spot wholesale market for steel products established at the end of 1980s changed the traditional pattern that the production plan was stipulated by the state and the products were distributed by the state, improved the ability of steel production enterprises to face and adapt to the market to a certain extent, and laid the foundation for establishing a unified, efficient and smooth steel circulation system. However, at that time, the ubiquitous "triangular debt" and the defects of the spot market itself caused problems such as poor information and undisclosed transactions, which plagued the steel production and operation enterprises and restricted the further development of the steel market. Therefore, people urgently need to find an effective way with high performance-price ratio, guaranteed quality and authoritative price. The varieties of wire rod futures just meet the needs of the development of market economy and came into being in the process of steel circulation system reform. 1in March, 993, Suzhou Commodity Exchange took the lead in introducing φ6.5mm wire futures trading. Later, Tianjin United Futures Exchange, Shenyang Commodity Exchange, Chongqing Commodity Exchange, Shanghai Building Materials Exchange and Beijing Commodity Exchange also successively launched futures contracts of this variety.
From 1993 to 1994, China's economy is in a specific initial development stage. On the one hand, wire rod is an indispensable product in capital construction, and the market demand is wide and large. As soon as the wire futures trading was launched, it immediately received positive responses from steel mills, material circulation enterprises and users. On the other hand, due to the relatively loose bank funds at that time, the trading scale of newly listed wire rod futures varieties was catalyzed. During this period, the cumulative turnover of wire rod futures trading in China exceeded 452 million tons, with a turnover of 1.32 trillion yuan and a cumulative delivery of 25 1 10,000 tons, making it the largest commodity futures product in China at that time.
At that time, the domestic futures market was immature and the construction of various laws and regulations lagged behind, which made the futures varieties with large trading volume and strong liquidity lack a good operating environment.
In the first stage (March-June, 1993), due to the rapid development of the national economy, the domestic demand for steel products increased rapidly, and the spot price of wire rod rose from 1700 yuan/ton, which exceeded 4,000 yuan/ton in the first half of 1993. As the expectation of spot market price, the wire rod futures price at the beginning of 1993 was running at a high level of around 4,000 yuan/ton, keeping pace with the spot price at that time.
In the second stage (1July, 993 to 65438+1October, 065438), affected by the national austerity policy, the steel market demand decreased, while the domestic steel output and foreign imports continued to increase, and the spot price of wire rod fell sharply, from the highest 4,200 yuan/ton to 2,620 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 37.62%. Wire futures prices fell sharply before spot prices. For example, three-month futures dropped from the highest 4,270 yuan/ton to 2,347 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45.04%.
In the third stage (199365438+1February 1994 to 65438+1October), the bubbles formed during the rapid growth of the national economy brought inflation to the market. Driven by this trend, coupled with loose monetary policy, spot prices rebounded in a short time, while futures prices rebounded quickly before spot prices with the help of traders, reaching a maximum of 3844.
In the fourth stage (after February 1994), the state took control measures to curb inflation, and the social demand was not strong. Coupled with excessive steel inventories and imports, futures prices have been falling all the way. Wire futures varieties are good varieties with China characteristics. 1993, without any international reference, China Futures Exchange pioneered wire rod futures varieties and successfully listed them, which has a breakthrough significance in the history of world futures trading.
1. Price discovery function in wire futures trading
After the wire rod futures are listed and traded, the price expectation is more real and reliable because of the large number of participants, large turnover and strong liquidity. By analyzing the comparison chart of wire rod futures price and spot price in Suzhou Commodity Exchange, it can be seen that before 1993, due to the influence of supply and demand, the futures price was running at a high level of about 4,000 yuan/ton, keeping pace with the spot price at that time; After June, the national macro-control measures were gradually put in place. Under the reasonable expectation of traders, the futures price is lowered to 2340 yuan/ton before the spot price; At the end of that year, due to the launch of large-scale infrastructure projects, traders were optimistic about the forward price, which showed a trend of forward premium; At the beginning of 1994, faced with the accelerated implementation of the national macro-control policy, the futures price turned down again, and then it did not exceed the guidance price stipulated by the State Planning Commission. In the whole process, there is no situation that the futures price deviates far from the spot price in the general month, but the futures price in the delivery month is basically the same as the spot price. In addition, compared with the spot price fluctuation before futures trading, in the spot market, the highest price of φ6.5 wire rod is 4,400 yuan/ton, and the lowest price is 65,438 yuan/ton, while the futures price is 4,270 yuan/ton, and the lowest price is 2,340 yuan/ton, which reduces the fluctuation of 870 yuan/ton. Futures prices have played a regulatory role in cutting peaks and filling valleys. It can be seen that in the futures trading in recent two years, the futures price trend of wire rod is close to reality and rational, which basically reflects the influence of China's political and economic factors on the futures market.
2. Wire futures trading provides enterprises with a channel to avoid risks.
It is precisely because of the active trading and the relatively reasonable trend of futures prices that all kinds of entities in the steel market can use the futures market to avoid spot price risks. There have been some successful hedging cases in wire futures trading. For example, at the beginning of the listing of wire rod in Suzhou Commodity Exchange, only two local steel enterprises in Suzhou and Nanjing participated. With the development of hedging function, a year later, large and medium-sized steel mills in East China entered the market, and major steel mills in other regions also participated in wire rod hedging transactions in different forms. In the two waves of sharp falls in futures prices, some steel mills sold forward contracts at high prices according to the production plan, which not only realized the sales, but also ensured the timely withdrawal of loans, avoiding the pain of triangular debts and avoiding the heavy losses caused by the sharp drop in spot prices.
3. Wire futures trading has created a standardized trading environment for steel circulation.
Wire futures trading takes public bidding and computer matching as means to reform the traditional and backward trading methods, standardize trading behavior, create an open, fair and just trading environment for steel circulation and ensure the transparency of trading. 1. The price discovery function of wire rod futures trading is reflected, but the hedging function is not yet mature.
In wire futures trading, some large and medium-sized state-owned steel mills such as Shougang, Anshan Iron and Steel Group, Tangshan Iron and Steel Group and Baotou Steel Group all participated in hedging transactions in different forms. However, because the market was immature at that time and there was no perfect management method for hedging, many market participants lacked correct understanding and application of hedging. In the process of trading, when encountering market fluctuations, they will change their original intention and participate in speculation, thus missing hedging opportunities and causing losses.
2. In the late stage of wire futures trading, there are problems in risk management, which leads to excessive speculation.
During the listing and trading of wire rod futures, because the domestic futures market is still in the pilot stage, market managers and traders are immature, which are as follows: First, the design of futures contracts is not reasonable; Second, the layout of the delivery warehouse is not reasonable enough. For example, the wire delivery warehouse of Suzhou Commodity Exchange is concentrated in East China, which gives speculators the opportunity to manipulate the market. Without the establishment of the brand launch system, the launch volume can not be controlled, and the launch quality can not be guaranteed, which is easy to cause disputes; Third, the construction of various laws and regulations lags behind, and the whole market lacks strict risk management norms and anti-risk ability; Fourth, traders lack scientific and reasonable investment awareness, and some management departments have some incorrect views on the futures market. To sum up, wire futures trading was over-hyped for various reasons, which caused losses to manufacturers and businesses and brought negative impacts to society.
According to the needs of macro-control, it is necessary for the state to suspend wire futures trading.
During the listing and trading of wire rod, the domestic futures market is immature, the design of futures contracts is not rigorous, and the management is not standardized, which leads to excessive speculation in wire rod trading and brings adverse effects to society. 1March, 994 It is absolutely necessary for the State Council to suspend the futures trading of this variety according to the needs of national macro-control.