The famous saying of economics is: in the long run, the price of goods will eventually reflect the price of the balance point between supply and demand. Therefore, the supply and demand of commodities have an important impact on commodity futures prices. Basic factor analysis mainly analyzes the relationship between supply and demand. The change of commodity supply and demand and the change of price influence and restrict each other. Commodity prices are inversely proportional to supply, supply increases and prices fall; Supply decreases and prices rise. Commodity prices are directly proportional to demand, demand increases and prices rise; Demand decreases and prices fall. With other factors unchanged, any change in the relationship between supply and demand may affect the change of commodity prices. On the one hand, the change of commodity prices is influenced by the change of supply and demand; On the other hand, changes in commodity prices have an impact on supply and demand in turn: prices rise, supply increases, and demand decreases; As prices fall, supply decreases and demand increases. This interaction and causal relationship between supply and demand and price makes the analysis of commodity supply and demand more complicated, that is, not only the influence of supply and demand changes on prices, but also the reaction of price changes on supply and demand should be considered.

① Initial inventory

Opening inventory refers to the physical quantity of goods accumulated in the previous year or quarter for the society to continue to consume. According to the identity of the inventory owner, it can be divided into producer-supplier inventory, dealer inventory and government reserve. The first two kinds of stocks can be listed and supplied at any time according to price changes, which can be regarded as the actual components of market commodity supply. The purpose of government reserves is to reserve for the overall interests of the whole society, and it will not be easily put on the market because of general price changes. However, when the market supply is seriously insufficient and prices soar, the government may use it to stabilize prices, which will have an important impact on market supply.

② Current output

Current output refers to the commodity output of this year or this quarter. It is the main body of commodity supply in the market, and its influencing factors are also very complicated. In the short term, it is mainly restricted by production capacity, resources and natural conditions, production costs and government policies. The influencing factors of different commodity production may vary greatly, so it is necessary to analyze the influencing factors of specific commodity production in order to grasp its possible changes more accurately.

③ Current import volume

The import volume in this period is a supplement to domestic production, and usually changes with the change of supply and demand balance in the domestic market. At the same time, the import volume will also be affected by international and domestic market spreads, exchange rates, national import and export policies and international political factors.