I. European routes
According to the statistics of China International Shipping Network's gold medal booking data, the biggest drop is in European routes. Take the 20' container as an example. In June, the freight rates from Tianjin, Dalian, Qingdao, Shanghai, Ningbo, Shenzhen, Xiamen and Guangzhou to Antwerp Port were 4538+00, which was 30.8% lower than that in August.
The freight rates of the eight major ports all dropped sharply, with Shenzhen having the biggest drop, from $450 in August to $200 in June at 5438+ 10, with a drop of 55.6%. Followed by Shanghai, the freight dropped from $600 in August to $350 in1October, with a drop of more than half, reaching 53.3%. The smallest decline was in Xiamen, which was warmed up by cross-strait direct flights, but it was also above 10%, with a decrease of 17.4%. It can be seen that Sino-European trade has entered a very depressed period, and Europeans have tightened their wallets and kept their food and clothing for the winter.
European Airlines-Port of Antwerp (USD)
August September 65438+ October
Tianjin 1, 400 1, 150 1, 000
Dalian 1, 400 1, 300 1, 080
Qingdao 1.450 1.230 950
Shanghai 600 350 280
Ningbo 600 380 400
Shenzhen 450 350 200
Xiamen 1, 150 1, 350 950
Guangzhou 550 450 400
Source: China International Shipping Network Gold Booking Space.
Second, the Middle East route.
Followed by the Middle East route, the average decline from the eight major ports to Dubai Port was 13.4%, and the fiery Middle East trade could not resist the chill of the financial storm.
The freight rates of the eight major ports have all declined, with Qingdao having the largest decline, with the freight rate dropping from 1 100 USD in August to 850 USD in June, with a decrease of 22.7%. Secondly, Ningbo, the freight rate dropped from $800 in August to $ 65438+650 in 10, with a decrease of18.8%; The smallest drop was in Tianjin, the gateway of Beijing, with a drop of only 4.3%.
East Dubai Port (unit: USD)
August September 65438+ October
Tianjin 1, 150, 1, 150, 100.
Dalian 1, 150 1, 100 1, 050
Qingdao 1, 100 900 850
Shanghai 850 750 700
Ningbo 800 700 650
Shenzhen 750 700 650
Xiamen 800 700 700
Guangzhou 850 1, 000 750
Third, the North American route
The North American route, which has always been the most concerned, blew the first cold wind this winter with a decrease of 10.5%.
Among them, except for Tianjin Port, the freight rate dropped from 1.600 USD in August to 1.550 USD in September, and rose slightly to 1.650 USD in June, all other ports fell for two consecutive months, with a drop rate of about 15%. The future situation is unpredictable and the prospects are not optimistic.
August September 65438+ October
Tianjin 1, 600 1, 550 1, 650
Dalian 1, 600 1, 550 1, 450
Qingdao1.6501.6001.450
Shanghai 1, 600 1, 550 1, 450
Ningbo1.5501.5001.350
Shenzhen 1, 600 1, 550 1, 350
Xiamen1.6501.5501.400
Guangzhou1.6501.5501.450
The dry bulk market fell to the lowest level in six years.
65438+1October 16, the Baltic dry bulk comprehensive freight index (BDI) fell by 109, with a decrease of 6.7%, hovering at the 1500 mark, reported at 1506, 2002.
According to the general view in the industry, the break-even point of the shipping industry is around 3000 points. This means that at present, more than half of the shipowners on the market are already at a loss.
The reason why BDI index plummeted is not complicated. The global credit crisis has greatly reduced shipping activities. With the increasingly difficult trade financing, many shipping companies have cancelled their contracts with shipowners. The liquidation of speculative activities in the futures market has also aggravated the problem of dry bulk transportation of bulk commodities such as coal, iron ore and wheat. Recently, the joint production reduction of domestic steel giants is even worse.
The tanker market may rebound at 20 10.
In the tanker market, the downward cycle in the next three years may only rebound at 20 10, and the downward speed of finished tanker freight will be slightly better than that of crude oil tankers.
The main reasons for pessimism are as follows:
(1) According to the experience of 1973 oil crisis, the global economic downturn will lag behind and affect the demand for oil transportation, so the demand in 2009 is worrying;
(2) The higher freight rate in 2008 directly led to a large number of new ship orders, which will be delivered on 2010-1;
(3) In 2008, a large number of single-hull ships have been converted into bulk carriers and withdrawn from the market. In other words, driven by the bulk cargo market, the single-hull ship market for oil transportation was reflected in advance in 2008.
According to the current market forecast, Professor Liu Bin from the Institute of World Economics of Dalian Maritime University said that the overall situation of the global shipping market is in a downward trend. Specifically, among the four major transportation markets of containers, dry bulk cargo, oil tankers and special ships, the decline of containers and dry bulk cargo is very large, and this trend will continue to 2010; In the tanker market, due to the shortage of global crude oil supply, the decline will not be too great; Special ships, the decline will not be too big. You can intervene near 10.00. .