Trump announced on Friday night local time that he had ordered the US military to unite with Britain and France to carry out a "precise strike" against Syrian government military facilities as a response to Syria's "chemical weapons attack". The General Command of the Syrian Armed Forces also issued a statement on Saturday, saying that in the early morning of that day, the United States, Britain and France "launched aggression" against Syria and fired about 1 10 missiles at the capital Damascus and other targets outside it.
According to Syrian state media, three civilians were injured in Homs after the American-led western air strikes. The missiles were targeted at a military facility in Homs, and the Syrian military intercepted these missiles, some of which deviated from the flight orbit, thus causing civilian injuries. The Syrian media also claimed that the attack on a research facility in the capital Damascus only caused property damage.
According to US Defense Secretary Matisse, the joint operation by the United States, Britain and France fired more than 100 missiles and hit three important chemical weapons facilities in Syria. According to the Russian Tass news agency quoted the Moscow Ministry of Defence, most of the missiles have been intercepted by the Syrian Air Force.
Afterwards, Russia and Iran voiced their condemnation one after another, while at the same time, Canada, Australia and other countries expressed their support for the joint action of Britain, the United States and France against Syria. In response to the attacks on Syria by the United States, Britain and France, UN Secretary-General Guterres said that maintaining peace is the responsibility of the UN Security Council and called on all countries to exercise restraint and avoid escalating the situation in Syria.
As the saying goes, "when a gun goes off, two thousand pieces of gold". As a safe-haven asset, gold has been passed down from generation to generation and is regarded as truth by default. Looking back, any war or political turmoil will stimulate the market demand for gold, which will lead to a sharp rise in the price of gold in the short term. However, taking history as a mirror, "guns are golden" may be just a false proposition.
Looking back on the Nine Wars in recent decades, we can find that before the Nine Wars, the price of gold did not all go out of the upward trend, and the increase was not particularly obvious. Except for the Gulf War and the Afghanistan War, the price of gold rose by 3%, reaching 10%. Before other wars, the price of gold rose slightly or even fell.
In addition, except for the Libyan war, the price of gold fell to varying degrees within one week of the war, ranging from 2% to 6%. After the Iran-Iraq war broke out, the price of gold dropped rapidly from the high point of 765,438+065,438+0 USD/oz at that time, and by the end of the war, it had fallen to around 430 USD/oz, with a cumulative decline of nearly 40%.
Even after the official end of the war, the price performance of gold was mixed compared with that before the war. For example, the price of gold at the end of the Gulf War was much lower than that at the beginning of the war, while at the end of the wars in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya in recent years, the price of gold was higher than that at the beginning of the war.
According to the statistics of China Securities, under normal circumstances, the price of gold rose more than 10% in the 20-30 trading days before the war. On the day of the war, the price of gold rose the most, even exceeding 5%. 90 trading days after the war, the price of gold tends to be rational.
Zhan Dapeng, precious metal analyst of Everbright Futures, also said that modern wars are mostly local wars initiated by NATO led by the United States. These countries have strong military strength and are often victorious countries. In the early days and early days of the war, the market was worried that these countries would fall into war. The longer the war lasts, the more national debt these countries issue to support the war, which will lead to serious fiscal deficit and inflation. At this time, gold denominated in dollars performed strongly.
However, in the middle and late stages of the war, when these countries gain the initiative in the war (days or weeks), the performance of gold is often high before and low after. Judging from the history of modern wars, it is unsustainable for wars to push up the price of gold.
There seems to be no absolute law to follow in the relationship between gold and war. But in the long run, the trend of gold price still depends on global inflation and the trend of the dollar, and war can only affect the price of gold in the short term.
A researcher at Chongyang Financial Research Institute of Renmin University of China once analyzed that since the 1980s, with the strengthening of the US dollar and the rapid decline of the inflation rate, the price of gold has fallen sharply. Since then, gold has entered a sharp correction period of nearly 20 years. Although the war here has played a certain role in gold in the short term, on the whole, it is more likely to be bad.
However, from 200 1 to 20 12, the rise of the euro led to the depreciation of the dollar, while gold experienced a rising cycle. The wars in Iraq and Libya during this period became an important force to push up the price of gold. After two wars, the price of gold rose by 336% and 2 1% respectively.
After the Syrian crisis broke out in 20 13, the price of gold once rose above 1400 USD/oz, but it still failed to recover the annual decline. In 20 13, the price of gold fell by nearly 30%, the biggest drop in nearly 30 years.