Section 1 Overview of the International Strategic Environment
1. International Strategic Environment
The international strategic environment refers to the strategies of major countries and political groups in the world within a certain period of time. The overall environment of the world formed by mutual connections, interactions, and mutual struggles. It includes two aspects: the international strategic pattern and the international strategic situation. The international strategic pattern is the framework structure of the international strategic environment; the international strategic situation is the dynamic expression of the international strategic environment. It essentially reflects the basic status and overall trend of political relations between political groups in major countries in the world based on certain military and economic strengths. Its core is the issue of war and peace worldwide. The international strategic environment is formed in a certain era, and the characteristics of the era have a decisive impact on its basic appearance.
In addition, the main factors affecting the international strategic environment include: the contradiction and development of international strategic interests; the distribution and allocation of political, military, and economic forces around the world; the strategies among major countries relations and their struggles, constraints, and cooperation; the process and outcome of the war, as well as the nature and extent of the threat of war, etc.
The international strategic environment is the international condition for national security and development. It has a significant impact on the realization of the country's strategic goals and strategic interests, and determines or restricts the objects and enemies of a country's political, military, and economic struggles. relations and the principles, policies and strategies adopted. Any strategy is proposed based on certain environmental conditions and will be restricted by such environmental conditions during the implementation process. Therefore, the analysis and judgment of the international strategic environment is the process of strategic decision-making and strategy implementation. is a crucial issue that must be paid special attention to. Only by standing at the height of the times, starting from the strategic interest relationships of major countries or political groups, can we systematically examine the status of the international strategic landscape and the development trend of the international strategic situation over a relatively long period of time, and comprehensively analyze the factors that affect national security and development. Only by understanding various international conditions and determining the possible direction, nature, and extent of deterrence to the country can we propose correct strategic countermeasures.
In short, the international strategic environment is the overall situation and overall trend of the world's major countries in the conflict, struggle or cooperation during a period of time. It is a comprehensive reflection of the international political, economic and military situation. It is related to the survival and development of a country and affects the objects, tasks and goals of a country's military struggle. Therefore, it is the external environment that each country must first examine and pay attention to to survive in the international environment. and conditions.
2. The theme of the era of peace and development has not changed
The theme of the era refers to global, strategic and core issues related to the overall situation in a certain development stage of human society. . It is a concentrated reflection of the basic characteristics of a certain era, represents the essence and development trend of this era, and stipulates the corresponding main tasks of the people of all countries in that era.
What is the theme of today’s era? As early as the 1980s, Deng Xiaoping pointed out that there are two really big problems in the world now, one is peace, and the other is economic or development. The issue of peace is to oppose hegemonism, and to maintain world peace is to strive to maintain a non-war state in the world as a whole; the issue of development is mainly the North-South issue, that is, the economic development issue of developing countries, and also the economic development issue of all mankind, which is the most important issue in today's world. core question. That is to say, the theme of today's era is peace and development.
More than 20 years have passed. Is Deng Xiaoping’s conclusion outdated? It should be said no. Although it has been 20 years since the end of the Cold War and the international situation has undergone profound and tremendous changes, the theme of the era of peace and development has not fundamentally changed. The reasons are:
(1) Driven by information technology and knowledge economy, economic globalization has become one of the most important development trends in the world today, deepening the interdependence between countries. In particular, the application and popularization of information technology not only created new labor tools and produced more products, forcing people to go abroad to find markets and investments, but also provided human society with more advanced and faster communication tools. , ensuring regular international interconnections and exchanges. This situation, coupled with the dependence of developed countries on the energy and resources of backward countries and the dependence of backward countries on the technology of developed countries, has greatly increased the interdependence of countries in the world today. This situation objectively does not allow a return to the pattern of international relations that is incompatible with the level of development of world productive forces, such as hostility between countries or confrontation between major powers, thus pushing the trend of peace and development forward.
(2) After the Cold War, especially in recent years, although the United States and other Western countries have an increasing tendency to pursue hegemonism and use force in international relations, there has not yet been a hostile or confrontational relationship between the major powers. In particular, it is unlikely that a global strategic rival to the United States, similar to the former Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact Bloc, will emerge. For world powers such as China and Russia, the basic strategy of the United States will still be to integrate Russia and China into the international system dominated by the United States and the West mainly through contact or "partnership", and at the same time implement long-term strategic precautions against China and Russia.
Although the United States and major European countries are basically able to maintain their alliances, there are still conflicts on many major issues such as the eastward expansion of NATO and the EU, the role of NATO, the deployment of ballistic missile defense systems, North Korea issues, Iraq issues, and even anti-terrorism issues. There are various contradictions and differences, but the model of "fighting and peace, fighting without breaking up" will still be the basic model and feature of major power relations for a long time to come.
(3) Economic and technological development is still the core of the national strategies of countries around the world. The United States and the European Union will engage in more intense economic competition, Japan is working hard to regain its economic development momentum, Russia has established a national policy centered on economic development, and China will continue to maintain rapid growth. Countries are paying more attention to technology and competition in the international market. Although the United States is no longer satisfied with merely competing with other major countries economically and attempts to launch foreign wars to stimulate domestic economic growth, its war policy has been resisted by various countries, and conflicts between the United States and most countries in the world are developing. It relies on war to Attempts to stimulate a domestic economic revival will not materialize. The world pattern in the 21st century still depends on the comprehensive national strength competition between countries centered on economic and technological strength.
(4) The contradiction between the north and the south has become more prominent, and the core is still the issue of economic development. After the First World War, the contradiction between the imperialist metropolitan countries and the colonies and semi-colonies, with the rise of the national liberation movement in the 1950s and 1960s after World War II and the birth of a large number of nation-states, has been generally resolved at the level of political struggle, and has evolved from this The conflicts between the North and the South are mainly focused on economic development issues, especially those in developing countries. The fundamental task is to get rid of poverty and get rid of the label of backwardness. Decades have passed and developing countries have made brilliant achievements through arduous efforts. However, in the entire world economy, most developing countries are still poor. Development issues must be put on the priority agenda of developing countries without delay. People's minds change and their minds develop, which has become the mainstream in developing countries.
The above all show that under the conditions of the current era, despite the ups and downs of the international situation, the theme of the era of peace and development has not changed. There is overall peace, local war, overall relaxation, local tension, and overall peace. Stability and local turmoil are the basic trends in the development of the international situation at present and in the future. The international environment China faces still offers more opportunities than challenges.
Section 2 International Strategic Pattern
1. Overview of International Strategic Pattern
International strategic pattern refers to the relationship between major countries or regions in the world within a certain period of time basic structure. It is the overall framework of the international strategic environment, showing the distribution, combination and contrast of world forces. In the international strategic landscape, countries and regions with strong military strength and political influence play a major and leading role in world affairs and are often called "poles" or "power centers."
The pattern of the international strategic pattern is determined by the "power balance". Due to the formation and changes of new forces in each historical period, the "power center" that plays a leading role also changes accordingly, thus Unipolar, bipolar and multipolar patterns are formed. The international strategic pattern is different from the frequently changing international strategic situation. It is relatively stable within a corresponding historical period. The alternation of old and new strategic patterns usually occurs after violent social upheavals involving major countries in the world. The fundamental reason lies in the continuous development and changes of the world's basic contradictions. An international strategic pattern with truly world-wide significance was formed and developed on the basis of the development of modern capitalism. After the 19th century, European powers ruled and influenced vast areas of the world, thus forming an international strategic pattern centered on Europe. This pattern is characterized by the fact that several big countries want to compete for European and world hegemony, and the internal competition among the powers develops fiercely, which leads to two world wars in the first half of the 20th century. The "Yalta System" established after World War II changed the old Europe-centered world structure and established an international strategic structure dominated by the United States and the Soviet Union.
In the late 1980s, the Soviet Union disintegrated, and the "Yalta System" dominated by the United States and the Soviet Union completely collapsed. Due to the rapid economic rise of Japan, Germany, and Western Europe, the United States' "unipolar" world plan went bankrupt after the Gulf War. With the great turbulence, polarization and reorganization of the world situation, the international strategic landscape has begun to develop in a multi-polar direction. It is believed that a new multi-polar international strategic pattern with multiple centers of power as its basic structure is taking shape.
2. Basic characteristics of today’s world structure
(1) Vested interest groups composed of a few Western developed countries, relying on their strong comprehensive strength, dominate and utilize various existing international rules to protect and expand their vested interests. The objective consequence of the end of the Cold War is that for the first time in the world's history, such a vast and relatively unified market has emerged, and the world's major powers have such extensive and solid common vested interests. There will be no challengers within ten or twenty years, so that some people claim that liberal democracy and market economy have become the only viable options, and history has begun a process that will end with the victory of Western values ??and systems.
(2) The United States is the most influential and aggressive force in this group of countries with vested interests. At the same time, the strength of Europe as a whole is also rising sharply.
The understanding of U.S. hegemony must be based on the background of developed countries as an interest group. In other words, the United States is only an integral part of the entire Western world, and the source of its influence is also here. It is in this sense that Europe's choice deserves special attention.
(3) The way in which international rules are established and implemented has obvious regional and diversified characteristics, and has begun to show the trend of the coexistence of North America and Europe and the accelerated combination of Asia. Behind the intensification of regional integration, both in terms of depth and breadth, lies the motivation of major forces striving to consolidate and expand their spheres of influence and to instill favorable rules into them to resist competition from outside the region. Finally, although the vast majority of developing countries have a strong desire to establish a more reasonable new international political and economic order and occupy a dominant position in certain areas, such as Russia’s military power, the oil resources of Middle Eastern countries, and China’s population size, overall , most of them are recipients of the current unfair international rules and the production methods and lifestyles set by developed countries, and the benefits or losses among them are very different. Therefore, they are forming collective actions to seek for change. * In terms of common interests, there are still many obstacles, and great efforts are still needed to deepen cooperation.
Economic globalization led by developed countries has given rise to a new international division of labor around the world. Economic globalization is mainly reflected in changes in the depth, breadth and quantity of international trade, direct investment and technology diffusion. Developing countries benefit from the technology diffusion and market opening of developed countries, and the application and diffusion of new technologies are always accompanied by large-scale trade and investment growth. In this process, human capital has also been accumulated in many developing countries.
Experience shows that there is a positive correlation between the improvement of a country's economic openness and the growth of its per capita national income. It should be admitted that the experience of developed countries and some developing countries supports the view of "first win". However, while globalization provides the world with "win-win" opportunities, it also exposes developing countries to the challenge of falling into the "international division of labor trap." In the entire international division of labor chain, developed countries rely on their advantages or opportunities in capital, technology, talent, marketing and consumption methods to occupy the market for high value-added, high-tech products and services, while most developing countries It is at the end of the international division of labor chain and has become a provider of labor-intensive, low-value-added, low-tech products and services in the global market. With the rapid progress of information and communication technology, a clear "digital divide" has emerged between different countries or economies in terms of access to information and communication technology and the use of the Internet to conduct various business activities. In other words, most of the benefits of globalization have been obtained by developed countries, while developing countries can only obtain a small part of them. And even for this small portion of revenue, developing countries are fiercely competing for it. They compete to offer various preferential conditions, such as tax incentives, promise to open up the domestic market to the maximum extent, promise to abide by the strict economic rules set by developed countries, and even make political concessions.
The majority of developing countries have begun to unite to safeguard their own interests, but there are still many obstacles to overcome before they can truly become a force. Generally speaking, developing countries share common interests, which creates conditions for them to protect their own interests through cooperation. However, we must also see that common interests are only a necessary condition for cooperation but not a sufficient condition. Considering that there are too many developing countries, considering that countries have different interests due to different levels of development and natural environments, and considering that the cost-benefit sharing and enjoyment of collective actions are often unequal, coupled with the differentiated policies of developed countries, , it is extremely difficult for a large number of developing countries to form a vested interest group or form an international force, so they are often at a disadvantage in the negotiation process of formulating international rules. In short, successful cooperation in developing countries is often partial and temporary. The conditions are not yet ripe for them to unite and truly become a force that cannot be ignored in the world structure.
The "bipolar" pattern within vested interest groups in developed countries is beginning to emerge and the world is becoming more multi-polar. In a sense, the differences between the United States and Europe are deep and difficult to bridge. They differ in their routes and concepts for building the future world order, and compete fiercely in the currency field. But the key point is that the way the United States promotes globalization is nothing less than a subversion of Europe's production methods, life patterns and values. Europe is reforming itself, but this does not mean that it fully agrees with the United States. It should be noted that the trend of widening the gap in comprehensive strength between the United States and the European Union has stopped. Compared with the United States, Europe is more independent. Europe needs help and support from the United States to a much lower extent than the United States needs Europe. At least Europe no longer needs the U.S. umbrella to meet its defense needs. In terms of population, output, trade, manufacturing, etc., in a word, the EU has surpassed the United States in terms of market size. In what was once a relatively weak area, namely world monetary and financial markets, with the creation of the Euro and the unified central banking system, the gap between Europe and the United States in their ability to allocate and enjoy global financial resources has also been greatly narrowed. The way the Eurozone and the EU operate and expand, as well as their overall attitudes and methods towards and handling international disputes (although there are differences among countries within Europe), have greatly contributed to the accumulation of their "soft power" and demonstrated the policy pursued by the United States. Unilateralism is inappropriate or "unjust and unhelpful".
Even just looking at the cooperation and competition between Europe and the United States, a multi-polar world is actually already emerging. From a long-term perspective, the pole that is most likely to be on par with Europe and the United States in the future is Asia, with China, Japan and South Korea in a key position.
Global problems and global governance issues are unprecedentedly serious and urgent, and they require and must be solved through coordination and cooperation among as many countries as possible.
Global issues mainly refer to long-term and universal issues involving the welfare of the entire human race, which can be roughly summarized into the following six categories: 1. Establishment and implementation of trade and investment rules; 2. Stability of the global financial system; 3. Transnational crimes in the form of terrorism, corruption, money laundering and illegal immigration; 4. Human health, which especially involves the prevention and control of infectious diseases such as AIDS and the management of genetically modified organisms; 5. Environment and resources, including climate, Pollution, biodiversity and tropical rainforest protection, etc.; 6. Security, including preventing regional conflicts, multilateral "peacekeeping", and control of weapons of mass destruction such as nuclear weapons, biological and chemical weapons. Of particular note here are two long-term factors affecting the global landscape: global governance and related immigration policies and population issues. It is necessary for governments from all countries to jointly contribute to the provision of global public products. But finding effective ways to achieve this goal is difficult.
While enjoying the benefits of hegemony, today’s superpower, the United States, has failed to fulfill its obligation to provide global public products fairly and adequately. Almost all global governance institutions are facing legal challenges. Problems of insufficient sex, insufficient transparency, and weak sense of responsibility. Today, production factors such as capital, technology and management knowledge can flow freely across national borders, with the exception of the free flow of labor. Many ardent believers in free-market principles also eschew the idea of ??allowing labor to move freely around the planet. The obstruction of the free flow of labor hints at the limits of economic globalization at a deeper level. At the same time, developed countries such as Europe and Japan have begun to enter aging societies, and absorbing a large number of immigrants has become a very real problem faced by these countries. The social, political and economic impact of a large number of immigrants entering developed countries will inevitably affect the foreign policies of these countries and even the world pattern.