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How to know in advance that the price of a certain commodity is going to rise?

Generally, there are several methods:

1. PPi and CPI data published by the country. If these data are relatively high, it can be predicted that prices will generally continue to rise at some time in the future. rise. PPI forecast is generally used because it reflects the price changes of raw materials.

2. Weather conditions and changes in international commodity prices. You can get this information from TV or the Internet. If the agricultural product you are concerned about suffers from bad weather due to factors such as bad weather or rising international commodities, its price will increase in the short term.

3. In the futures market, futures have the function of price discovery and can more closely predict future changes in spot prices. If you are buying commodities, you can use hedging in the futures market to avoid risks.

4. National policy, this requires constant attention to policy changes. If the country reduces import tariffs on certain products, such as cars, iPhones, etc., you can predict that you will buy these items cheaper than before. Or if the loan interest rate is raised, house prices may fall a bit. Or if the money supply decreases, demand will continue to drive prices down. There are many, many examples.

5. In the international situation, if there is unrest in the main producing areas of the product, the supply will decrease and the price will increase. This is the situation in Libya now. The price of oil has risen to 102 US dollars. Domestic fuel prices have also been raised accordingly.

6. There is also a longer-term prediction, which is the progress of science and technology and the application of high-tech products. As productivity increases, production costs fall, and prices will also drop.

These methods can roughly predict future price changes.