"copy the bottom" and "follow the trend" are just two parallel trading ideas, and there is no order. In terms of probability, 50% of people should choose to "copy the bottom" and the other 50% should choose to "follow the trend". But in reality, why do 90% people choose to "copy the bottom"? The remaining 10% people will choose to "follow the trend" after a lot of training and thinking correction?
Why do we naturally like "bargain hunting"?
-
First, the price ge of daily contact items is generally unchanged for a long time, which makes us invisibly form a "bargain-hunting"
Because real life scenes have influenced our thinking and values subtly, the initial trading habits of human beings are not "trend thinking", but "bargain hunting and feeling high".
In real life, we all know the prices of clothes, vegetables, eggs and meat. We buy, all kinds of daily necessities in the store, the daily necessities we often buy, are not short-term adjustments, not short-term ups and downs, but long-term fixed, rarely rising today and tomorrow, or rising this week and continuing to rise next week.
Photo: All kinds of daily necessities in the store.
?
Figure: The price ge of all kinds of goods we come into contact with in daily life is usually fixed for a long time.
Therefore, we all think in our hearts that the product price ge is very stable and rarely changes, and it will take some time for the price ge to change.
Because the price ge in real life is very stable and not easy to change, it has a deep-rooted influence on our thinking. When the real price ge drops a little, we will feel that the price ge is discounted and cheap. After all, the price ge hasn't fallen for a long time, and it's not easy this time. I want to buy it right away. By the same token, the price of ge rose a little, and we thought it was profitable, but it didn't rise for a long time. It really didn't go up a little this time. We are very proud and want to sell it.
From birth to now, we have all lived in real life, and the life experiences in real life are deeply imprinted in our souls. Because the commodity price ge in real life is usually very stable and difficult to change, our initial idea is not "trend thinking", but "throwing high and sucking low".
?
Second, in the trading world, the disk price ge changes all the time, leading to "bargain-hunting".
However, the trend of price ge in the trading world is completely different from that in real life, because in the trading world, due to the role of funds, the price ge on the disk is constantly changing. One second the price ge is still 100, the next it is 100. 1, the next it may become 99.9, and then it will go up.
Figure: the price ge on the disk is constantly changing.
This is completely different from the trend of price ge we encounter in real life, which leads to the paradox of the two worlds.
Concepts in real life will affect our trading world invisibly. When the price ge on the disk drops a little in a short time, we unconsciously think that "the price ge is cheap and should be bought", and when the price ge rises a little in a short time, we unconsciously think that "the price ge is expensive and should be sold", which makes us always "bargain-hunting".
?
Third, the real price change is different from the trading world.
In reality, even if the price ge changes, it is basically in months, which is equivalent to a straight line pull-up and instantaneous completion, so it is not easy to see the trend of the price ge; In the trading world, the price ge needs to go through various complicated and changeable trends, and the trend of the price ge is easy to see because of its curve trajectory.
In real life, even if the price of daily necessities we come into contact with rises, it can't only rise by 0. 1% at a time, nor will it only rise by 1% or 3% at a time, but usually it will rise by at least10%; Even if the price is reduced, it will not be reduced by 0. 1% or 1%, but by 10% to 20%, in units of 10%.
For example, we buy tomatoes at the price of 2 yuan/kg. If the seller raises the price, it will not be said that it will rise to 2.02 yuan/kg, only 0.2 gross (equivalent to an increase of 1%), but it will usually rise to 2.2 yuan, with a direct increase of 10%, or to 2.3 yuan/kg, which is equivalent to a straight-line pull-up and instant completion.
Of course, it is impossible for sellers to move every day. For example, the price ge of vegetables and fruits changes rapidly, and they also move weekly. The price ge is only adjusted once a week or two, while other commodities generally move monthly.
Suppose a project is adjusted once a month, and each time it is increased by 10%, it is directly increased by 10% at the end of February, and it is directly increased by 10% at the end of February. Its price ge trajectory is as follows:
Figure: In reality, the ge trend curve of commodity price.
As can be seen from the above figure, even if the price ge of goods changes in reality, the time interval of price adjustment is relatively long, and it is impossible to change every day. For a period of time, the price ge is fixed; Within two months, the price of ge only rose by 10% at some two time points, and did not form a series of curve trends, so it is not easy to see the trend route of ge price.
To sum up, in real life, "trend thinking" lacks a foundation. On the contrary, "feeling high at bargain hunting" is this.
?
In the trading world, how does the price ge on the disk achieve the above-mentioned change goal?
If you switch to the trading world, the price ge of this item will have a completely different trajectory. The monthly floor price ge rose to 1. 1 times the initial price ge, and the floor price ge rose to 1.2 times the initial price ge in February. The price ge target is the same as the spot price ge target above, but the trend route of price ge is really complicated and changeable.
First of all, it is impossible to increase 10% linearly, but in the form of infinite walking. The price ge changes all the time, every day and every week, and finally achieves the goal of rising 10% at the end of February.
Secondly, in the process of realizing the increase of 10%, the price ge route may be realized in the form of "slow fluctuation", or it may be realized in the form of "wide fluctuation up and down, but overall forward", or it may be presented in the form of "first falling and then rising, fast and continuous", and so on.
Figure: the trajectory of price ge in the trading world.
In terms of futures, the market rose by 10% in one month and 20% in two months, which is already a relatively big market, not a small market. The price ge curve on their disk is coherent, so it is easy to see the trend of price ge, and "trend thinking" has a supporting foundation.
However, due to the influence of real life price ge trajectory on us, we naturally tend to "copy the bottom" instead of "follow the trend".
?
Fourth, strengthen our will to get to the bottom of it.
The experience of real life makes "seeking the bottom" become our nature, and "nature cannot change"; At the same time, in the transaction, "bargain-hunting" can often make us taste the sweetness and further aggravate our willingness to bargain-hunting.
From the above, it can be seen that the real commodity price ge is fixed for a period of time, such as 10 at the beginning of the month and10 at the end of the month; Assuming that the item has been listed in the futures market, its price ge target is the same as that of the spot, which is 10 at the beginning of the month and 10 at the end of the month. However, the price ge is constantly changing in the middle of this month, so "bargain hunting" can make you profit during this period.
Moreover, we know that most of the time in the transaction, the price ge on the disk fluctuates up and down, because the corresponding spot price ge remains unchanged or changes little during this period, so many times, "bargain-hunting" can make us profit, let us constantly taste the sweetness and deepen our correct evaluation of "bargain-hunting". We don't think that "bargain hunting" is wrong, but that this is the correct trading thinking.
Trading at the bottom, with no stop loss or a large stop loss, can make us reap profits and taste the sweetness, but it is very dangerous to taste the sweetness. This kind of operation can really make you taste a little sweetness 80% of the time, but in 20% of the time, the market tends to be, and you are all finished.
No matter how much you earned before, as long as the risk is not well controlled, the result is zero. It is only a matter of time and must be met. No matter how much you have accumulated before, it will disappear. You earned 654.38+00,000, 654.38+00,000, or 654.38+000,000. There is no difference.
?
It is also easy for us to have a sense of accomplishment and enjoy it.
Not only can we taste the sweetness of bargain hunting, but the feeling of grasping the high and low points is also fascinating and addictive. Even every small adjustment is about throwing high and sucking low. Even if we are wrong 10 times and wrong 1 times, we still feel very successful, and we can brag and make the audience worship.
Although I know that I can't touch the bottom, but an inverted K-line, my hand will unconsciously open the position, and my brain will subconsciously measure the profit range from the high point to the low point. Wrong hurts for three seconds, right, happy, addicted, go on.
?
Because the idea of "hunting the bottom" is deeply rooted, before you fully establish the trend thinking, this idea of throwing high and sucking low always secretly occupies your inner world from time to time. You don't have a list. When the price ge is high, you think the price ge is expensive, so you short it. In hindsight, this is a contrarian order, which violates the general trend. When you have more than one profit, the current price of ge has risen a little in a short time, and you think the price of ge is expensive, you sell it. You can't take a profit list and earn huge profits brought by the general trend.
A little slack in thinking about the trend will quickly occupy the commanding heights and control the inner world. Sometimes you can't find it yourself, just because "seeking the bottom" is the initial state of human inner world, that is, the host of the original ecology, and the trend thought is the later parasite, so "seeking the bottom" will always stare at you, and once you have the opportunity, you will control your inner world quickly and secretly, so that you can't make a trend.
"A leopard cannot change his spots, but a leopard cannot change his spots".
?
5. How to get rid of the habit of "hunting the bottom"?
1. Is it good or not?
Logically speaking, bargain-hunting also has a good side: for example, once copied to the end, there will be a lot of profits in the future, with a small stop loss and a large profit-loss ratio, which makes sense.
About fifteen years ago, I read a book, The Financial Grinch. Jones, a Wall Street trader, said in the book, "Others say not to bargain-hunting, but most of my money is earned by bargain-hunting."
I didn't think what Jones said was wrong at that time. If you do it right, you can get a lot of markets, and you can make big money by taking big risks. At that time, I thought that "people who don't let you touch the bottom are actually people who have no ability to touch the top." With this ability, you can find out. " So for a long time, bargain hunting was an important part of my trading system.
There is also a negative side to bargain hunting: that is, operating against the trend, moving against the general trend, low success rate, and easy to hurt self-esteem.
?
2. From the actual results, can bargain-hunting be profitable? ? How did I get rid of this problem?
You have a profit statement and a loss statement. Some people profit from bargain hunting, while others fail. Therefore, it is not clear whether bargain-hunting can be profitable. If bargain-hunting is a bad method, how bad is it?
It is precisely because there is not enough data to oppose "bargain-hunting" that he will always be in our hearts, so let us continue to "bargain-hunting".
15 years ago, I was not sure whether "bargain hunting" was really bad, but this feeling of grasping the high and low points was very enjoyable and fulfilling, so I would "bargain hunting" from time to time, and of course I would make orders and do everything.
For a while, my profits have been stagnant. I wanted to do statistics, so I began to do a lot of statistics. In two years or so, I made detailed statistics on more than 200 transactions during the period, counted the profits of making orders with the trend, counted the profits of making orders during the shock, and counted the profits of bargain hunting. I don't know if it doesn't count, but I was shocked and found a problem.
My single winning rate against the trend is only 20%. Although the profit-loss ratio is high, there are some beautiful lists in the middle, which even I admire, but generally speaking, the bottom list is a loss, and the overall loss is large. If these orders are deducted, my profit can be increased by 50% on the existing basis;
The profit comes from placing orders conveniently. Although nearly half of the orders are stop-loss, the profitable orders are more profitable, and the profit-loss ratio is greater than 3: 1. Generally speaking, the homeopathic bill has brought me huge profits.
Do you think I'll pursue it again?
Scientific data and a large number of statistical samples are in front of me. Facts speak plainer than words. What happened to my heart? How does the other "I" sophistry? Why should I do it when I can't make money, at least I can't make money?
At this time, my heart deeply realized that it was wrong to "copy the bottom" and my inner world was completely upside down. "No more bargain hunting" has become my "nature". I don't need a lot of will and self-control, so naturally I won't bargain hunting.
Until now, I almost never "bargain-hunting", except for a few who go against the trend. When there is a very effective signal, I will try to "bargain-hunting", but this list only accounts for about 5%.
?
3. How to get rid of the habit of "hunting the bottom"?
Therefore, I suggest that you check your delivery form regularly (I have an article detailing how to check your delivery form, you can come to the home page to have a look), classify and summarize which ones can make money and which ones can't, and speak with data. If the list of "bargain-hunting" in the past year is generally a loss, then you will realize his shortcomings from the blood, and "bargain-hunting" is no longer your nature.
At the same time, it is recommended to be double blind. In the double-blind simulation, we should do a lot of transactions according to our own trading ideas and see whether the result of a lot of transactions is profit or loss. Everything is based on scientific data, and I really realized that I am tired and don't make money.
A large number of transactions can't be profitable, so that your own bone marrow doesn't trust it, and this "habit" in your heart is completely deducted, so that "homeopathic thinking" can enter your inner world and replace it as your "nature". After that, you don't need a big will, you need an ordinary will, and you will go with the flow, because this is your "nature".
And this way, you don't have to bear a little loss of real money, and you can get a lot of data in a short time. The sample data is very sufficient and scientific. After all, there are few sample data in actual transactions, which cannot be more convincing in a certain period of time.
?
Author | Egg yolk investment, more than 20 years of trading experience, sharing practical dry goods such as futures/stocks/foreign exchange/digital B, and privately trusting me to get packaged dry goods.