On September 16, the reporter from china securities journal who participated in the activities of "Futures Serving Agriculture, Countryside and Farmers" and the soybean delegation of Dalian Commodity Exchange arrived in Harbin. However, it was not until the third day that he saw pieces of soybeans planted in Keshan and Nehe, hundreds of kilometers away from Harbin. Although the domestic autumn grain will usher in a bumper harvest year this year, it is only for soybeans that the news is mixed. The sharp decline in planting area has worried people who are concerned about the fate of soybeans in Northeast China.
The three-day journey is more than 800 kilometers, starting from Harbin, passing through Cyclobalanopsis, Wangkui, Keshan, Nehe, Nenjiang and then to Heihe. In the past, soybeans were concentrated in Heilongjiang, but now the situation is very different. The reporter observed that corn basically stretches all the way, and sometimes crops such as potatoes, peppers and marigold appear. This situation didn't change until Keshan and Nehe, but soybean patches only appeared in Nenjiang, which is farther north.
As for the reasons for the decrease of soybean planting area, farmers, traders and other related people contacted by reporters along the way believe that, on the one hand, a large number of imported beans flooded into China, seizing the market share of domestic soybeans. 1996 China imported soybeans10000 tons, and 201/kloc-0 imported soybeans from China 52.64 million tons a year, an increase of 45 times; On the other hand, the price structure of corn and soybean is distorted. As dryland crops, corn and soybean are in competition all the year round, that is to say, increasing the sown area of soybean means compressing the sown area of corn, and vice versa. Only when the planting income of the two varieties is equal (that is, soybean price ≈ corn price * soybean/corn yield ratio), the sown area of soybean will increase steadily.
Wang Xiaoyu, deputy secretary-general of Heilongjiang Soybean Association, who was inspected by his peers, has dark skin. Talking about soybeans is like opening an encyclopedia. He believes that in recent years, the gap between the average price of corn and soybeans is getting bigger and bigger, which is the internal reason for the decrease in soybean planting. According to his tracking, the average yield of soybean and corn in 20 1 year reached 2.8: 1. That is to say, if the ratio of soybean to corn is greater than 2.8, farmers will plant more soybeans and less corn; if the ratio of soybean to corn is less than 2.8, farmers will prefer more corn. Recently, the price of ordinary corn in Harbin, Heilongjiang Province is around 1 yuan, while the price of soybean is only 2. 10 yuan, which means the yield per mu is very different. If the price relationship does not change, the reduction of soybean planting area will be more severe.
"The wheat in the northeast has fallen, and now soybeans are at their most dangerous time." Wang Xiaoyu recalled that the milling industry in Heilongjiang was shrinking in the early 1990s, and he was worried: under the mechanism of survival of the fittest in the market economy, most flour mills stopped production and closed down in two or three years, and the difficulties of processing enterprises were quickly transmitted to planting. The wheat planting area of about 20 million mu has gradually shrunk to four or five million mu, and it has not really recovered until now. Now, this is the result of strong industries attacking weak industries, and wheat, one of the four major grain varieties in the province, has lost its former glory. It remains to be seen whether soybeans can follow in the footsteps of wheat.