After A-shares welcome the benefits of comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cuts, they are about to enter the December trading time. How will the market situation perform?

The Paper has collected the opinions of 10 securities firms. Most of them believe that although the market has been in shock again recently, there is no need to worry too much about systemic risks in the market. The current market is still at the bottom of a cost-effective area. As the foundation for mid-term economic recovery is laid, the "warm winter market" will continue after the short-term shock in late November.

CITIC Securities pointed out that it is expected that with the optimization of relevant policies, a new steady state of economic weakness will gradually be formed. The gradual approach to a new steady state has laid a solid foundation for economic recovery in the medium term. The inflection point of the pace of U.S. dollar interest rate hikes has been established, and domestic monetary policy has concentrated its efforts, which will provide support for the restoration of A-share valuations.

Industrial Securities said that the market has been in turmoil again recently, and the core lies in the recurrence of risk preferences, such as the large fluctuations in the domestic bond market that have disturbed stock market sentiment. At present, relevant policies have been further optimized, and market funds are still relatively abundant. From the perspective of valuation and equity risk premium, the current market is still at the bottom of the cost-effective area, and there is no need to worry too much about systemic risks in the market.

In terms of configuration, the balanced strategy has become the recommendation of many brokerages.

CITIC Securities said that A-shares are currently in the first half of the policy-driven period, and it is recommended that investors increase their positions and balance the real estate industry chain, global liquidity inflection points and other main lines.

"Although A-shares are still in a restorative market, the reversal of economic fundamentals is difficult to achieve overnight, and a 'seesaw effect' appears in value and growth markets. Next, in the context of the stock game, A-shares It will show the characteristics of rapid rotation of sectors and styles, so investors can focus on balanced allocation," West China Securities further pointed out.

CITIC Securities: There is support for the restoration of A-share valuations

In December, it is expected that with the optimization of relevant policies and the implementation of policies to stabilize growth such as the real estate "Sixteen Articles", there will be Gradually form a new steady state of recovery from economic weakness. The gradual approach to a new steady state will lay a solid foundation for economic recovery in the medium term. The inflection point of the pace of U.S. dollar interest rate hikes has been established, and domestic monetary policy has concentrated its efforts, which will provide support for the restoration of A-share valuations.

In general, the current market characteristics indicate that the trend of A-share comprehensive recovery in the medium term is highly clear, but the pace of short-term recovery has slowed down.

Specifically, on the one hand, macro liquidity at home and abroad has clearly improved, and there is support for the market's mid-term valuation recovery. On the other hand, market sentiment fluctuates greatly, and the characteristics of high degree of gaming and rapid rotation are still obvious. The current fundamentals and the market's mid-term recovery trend are highly clear, but investors are still very divided on the pace and risks of recovery. Superimposed on loose liquidity and low active capital positions, A-shares are characterized by high levels of gaming and rapid rotation. Still obvious.

In terms of allocation, A-shares are currently in the first half of the policy-driven period. It is recommended that investors increase their positions and balance the real estate industry chain, global liquidity inflection points and other main lines.

CICC: The key to the expected improvement lies in the restoration of fundamentals

The A-share market has had many bottom-oriented characteristics in the early stage, so the key to the expected improvement lies in the improvement of fundamentals. Repair intensity. As the end of the year approaches, and the current economy is still facing internal and external challenges, pay attention to important meetings that may be held near December and pay attention to subsequent policy directions. Overall, we hold a neutral to positive view on the A-share market in the next 12 months.

In terms of allocation, it is recommended that investors closely follow the pace of marginal changes in policies in the short term. In the medium term, they can grasp the main line of industrial upgrading and consumption upgrading based on the level of prosperity and China's economic growth structure, and use low valuations and macroeconomics. Mainly areas with low correlation or moderate prosperity and policy support.

In terms of style, the current overall expectations for the growth sector are not low, positions are still relatively heavy, and systematic allocation opportunities may need to be observed. For opportunities to switch the strategic style to growth, we still need to pay attention to the progress of overseas inflation and China's stable growth.

CITIC Securities: Market stock game features are significant

Since the end of October, as the rebound progresses, there are differences between growth and value, as well as between large and small caps. An obvious "seesaw" effect. The fermentation of optimistic expectations is the core logic behind this round of rebound, but only after expectations come first, can the verification of fundamental dimensions make the market go further.

At present, weak fundamentals are still a reality, the market rebound momentum is attenuated, and the stock game features are obvious. At the moment, what investors are more concerned about is hoping to get verification from the fundamental data dimension.

In terms of allocation, the demand for stable growth increases at the end of the year, and the style may rotate towards sectors related to the stable growth chain. Specifically for this year, against the background of uncertain economic expectations and a basic response to high-prosperity track economic expectations, the short-term style may rotate in the direction of "steady growth." From the perspective of long-term policy orientation, technology may become the main line of medium- and long-term investment.

Guotai Junan Securities: Adjustment is an opportunity for layout.

Currently, the realistic constraints of the A-share market are that the bottom of expectations and policies have appeared earlier than the bottom of fundamentals. Looking forward to the market outlook, this round of economic recovery will be tortuous, and there will even be greater downward pressure in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year.

However, the stock market is no longer in a state of decline. Markets that “look for opportunities” around domestic demand are expected to continue to appear. However, given the expected improvement and weak fundamentals, it is difficult to see an overnight upward market. , more of an upward evolution in oscillations and repetitions. Therefore, adjustments are actually opportunities for layout, and stocks can be increased when stocks fall.

In terms of allocation, the value has rebounded from the bottom. Investors can invest in growth at dips and focus on two main lines: First, focus on the repair space of the traditional economy under the expectation of recovery, especially the risk convergence on the real estate supply side, and focus on leading companies. Real estate companies, banks, insurance, etc. The second is to seize the trend of domestic demand expansion under the main line of transformation, upgrading and security, and can focus on medicine, military industry, computers, communications, steel, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, etc.

Haitong Securities: The valuation of A-shares is at the bottom and there is considerable room for improvement

Historically, the valuation level of A-shares has obvious cyclical characteristics. As of November 25, 2022, the PE/PB, stock-bond income ratio, risk premium rate and other indicators of A-shares are all at the bottom of the cycle. Therefore, the current valuation of A-shares is already low. Under the cyclical rules, there is considerable room for improvement in the valuations of A-shares and most industries in the future.

Looking back at the history of A-shares since 2005, we can find that A-shares will have a big bottom every 3-4 years, and behind it is the economic cycle. From the perspective of the investment clock, the economy is heading towards the early stage of recovery, and the trend of A-shares is improving. Corresponding to the stock market cycle, the return on investment in A-shares also exhibits mean reversion.

The current valuation of A-shares is at the bottom, policies are continuing to increase, and the second wave of gains during the year is slowly unfolding. Looking forward to the market outlook, it is recommended to give priority to high-prosperity growth, such as the digital economy and new energy. In terms of digital economy, the construction of smart cities is expected to become an important catalyst. In terms of low-carbon economy, it is recommended to pay attention to wind power, photovoltaics, energy storage and intelligent new energy vehicles.

Industrial Securities: Don’t worry too much about systemic risks in the market

The market has been in shock again recently, and the core lies in the recurrence of risk appetite. For example, the domestic bond market fluctuates significantly, causing disturbances to stock market sentiment.

But there is no need to worry too much about systemic risks in the market: First, relevant policies have been further optimized. Secondly, the redemption of partial debt products has a limited impact on the stock market, and although interest rates have risen, market funds are still relatively abundant. In addition, external shocks are also weakening; from the perspective of valuation and equity risk premium, the current market is still in the bottom area of ??high cost performance.

Looking forward to the market outlook, in the short term, we can pay attention to the opportunities to repair the low valuations of state-owned enterprises and central enterprises. First of all, the periodic convergence of market risk appetite has driven market funds to divert to heavyweight sectors such as state-owned enterprises and central enterprises that are still in relatively "less crowded places" and have risk-averse attributes. Secondly, various recent policies and events have also intensively catalyzed the situation. In addition, the valuation of state-owned enterprises and central enterprises is at a historical bottom, and there is an impetus for valuation restoration.

Essence Securities: The short-term market environment is conducive to the valuation restoration of the market value

The current market is in the stage of gaining momentum and the market environment is relatively safe. Under the new starting point, the policy combination continues to increase in intensity and substance, and policy expectations will continue to support the equity market. December is approaching, and the follow-up Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference are important policy observation windows. The short-term market environment is conducive to the valuation restoration of the market value.

Review the market situation from 2003 to the end of the year and the beginning of the year: The market opportunities at the end of the year are better than at the beginning of the following year. The average return rate of the Shanghai Composite Index in December is 2.75%, and the average return in January is - 0.92%. At the structural level, value is better than growth (but the growth winning rate will be significantly improved at the beginning of the next year), large caps are better than small caps, and big finance and consumer styles dominate.

Looking ahead to the market outlook, industries that can be overweighted in the short term include real estate, medicine, banking, copper and gold, auto parts, etc. And the digital economy represented by computers, the green electricity industry chain represented by energy storage, etc.

Zhongtai Securities: The index market gradually interprets the structural market

The "warm winter market" will continue after the short-term shock in late November, and the structure will be changed from the first stage of the index market , to interpret the structural market trend of "weights set the stage and individual stocks perform", mainly CSI 1000, and the follow-up focus will be on the development of various domestic policies.

As far as the allocation direction is concerned, we will keep securities companies, electric power, etc. unchanged, and pay attention to the elasticity of oversold institutional holdings, as well as the breakdown of some consumer stocks in the fourth quarter.

Specifically, Xinchuang and military industry may be the main lines throughout next year. Under the comprehensive registration system, relevant supporting facilities and favorable policies may be implemented one after another, which will benefit the development of the capital market. It is recommended to pay attention to the securities firm sector among heavyweight stocks. The power, UHV, power grid transformation and other sectors related to new infrastructure are currently at the bottom stage, and they also have good prosperity and are worthy of attention.

In addition, for oversold rebound sectors, you can pay attention to photovoltaics, etc. Consumer stocks are recommended to pay attention to the two existing long-term directions of traditional Chinese medicine and supply and marketing cooperatives.

Tianfeng Securities: Growth is expected to dominate

Since November, real estate, banking, non-banking, construction, building materials and other large-cap value styles have achieved significant excess returns, superimposed on the end of the year. During this special period, the market began to discuss whether there would be a major reversal in style.

From the perspective of style trends, the low valuation trend is less likely to dominate. For most of the future, the trend will still be more optimistic about emerging industries.

Looking forward to the market outlook, we may start to pay attention to some growth directions, such as Xinchuang, semiconductors, etc., as well as the direction of the track that has begun to adjust due to excessive congestion (the proportion of turnover has increased significantly) since July. It is recommended to focus on the two keywords of "domestic demand" and "little relationship with the total economy", focusing on Haifeng, military industry, etc.

West China Securities: A-shares are still in a restorative market

Overall, A-shares are still in a restorative market, but the reversal of economic fundamentals cannot be achieved overnight. Under the influence of market fluctuations and other factors, market sentiment has been disturbed, and a "seesaw effect" has appeared in value and growth markets.

Looking forward to the market outlook, it is expected that the market will not see a "one-sided" phenomenon similar to the "low valuation blue chip" market at the end of 2014. There is no significant easing of micro-capitalization in the current market. Increasing funds such as foreign capital and public funds have limited entry into the market, and private equity positions have also fallen to the lowest level in the past three years. Therefore, in the context of the stock game, A-shares will show the characteristics of rapid rotation of sectors and styles.

In terms of allocation, after the short-term sharp rebound of the value sector, it is recommended that investors still focus on balanced allocation and focus on three main lines of investment: first, real estate that benefits from marginal adjustments to policies; second, real estate with high prosperity New energy, etc.; the third is trust innovation, independent controllability, traditional Chinese medicine, etc.

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