Mother-in-law, procrastination is not in line with market survival. For example, in the above example, you should wait patiently until around 1.3300, and then you will enter the market and follow the established policy. When there are new changes, we should improvise immediately. Either leave or turn around. It is understandable that inexperienced novices are at a loss. However, experienced investors knowingly commit crimes, which is likely to be related to personality and investment psychological quality. The first principle of risk management is capital preservation. If you are uncertain, you must resolutely leave immediately. Come back when the situation is obvious. This is no different from fighting.
In the example above, the good position of 1.3300 failed, and the wandering area of 1.3480- 1.3300 broke through to 1.3 100. Investors should turn around immediately. However, "watch it again" is still a little slow. The stop loss is not, nor is the wheel stop, so that the good position of 1.3300 has been losing hundreds of points. Until 1.2800, it will end when the warehouse is eliminated by the market, or it will always hold the lost warehouse and pray for the day of liberation. What's even more ridiculous is that instead of stopping loss and turning around, we added positions in the opposite direction, with the intention of waiting for a better opportunity to "unlock positions". These are all things that can only make investors into the fire pit. I have talked about the absurdity of locking warehouses in other posts. Please refer to. Say it again. Never lock the warehouse. Stop or stop.
Even more ridiculous is that after losing the first order, they didn't stop loss or turn around, but bravely added the dead code to the losing direction until they lost completely. As long as the capital is guaranteed, there are many investment opportunities, and it is not difficult for investors to stop at 50-80 points. No stop loss, not just turning, "locking positions" and "adding dead codes" are all side roads that will kill investors. Why can't some investors stop their losses in time? I can only say that it is a question of the investor's personality, so we should exercise discipline and resolutely implement it. Because there is no stop loss and rotation for a long time, the survival rate is zero. If you can't do it yourself, it doesn't hurt to ask someone else to do it. It's okay to run a red light once or twice. Every time you run, you will die sooner or later. The same is true of fund management and risk management. The problem is that stop loss and wheel stop may not guarantee the purpose of each time.
The price will come back after the stop loss, and the novice will regret it. The price will come back after no stop loss. Novices think it's ok to do this in the future, and the problem is not big. A few short-term times may not be a problem, but if it continues for a long time, it will undoubtedly fail. What should be done every time is what should be done in risk management at that time. Only in this way can we ensure long-term survival and long-term profit. For some reason, many novices think that the financial market is a casino and gamble blindly until they are penniless.
First of all, how do those central banks and big funds survive and make money in the foreign exchange market?
First, they don't use leverage at all or use very low leverage to ensure that fluctuations in the ordinary market will not cause fatal blows.
Second, they all use options to protect the operation of their warehouses. It is rare to take risks in the market without hedging. Accumulate for many years and make a lot of money.
You should remember Buffett. The 0-year return rate of Soros Fund is about 65438+25%. The former does not need a lever, and the latter uses a lever of 2: 1. It is not a timid relationship, but a relationship that is too familiar with the market odds. Their veterans are doing the same step by step. A novice who has no market experience at all will use the lever of 200: 1 to bet all his money to win.
The American fund LTCM was eliminated by the market on 1998, which almost triggered a financial market crisis. The main reason is that leverage is too large, gambling is too strong, and risk management is neglected. Another phenomenon is that you place a bet once before the main data is released. The news market of the main data was originally a good opportunity to buy and sell, but it was not that kind of gambling.
For the above two phenomena, I can only say, don't gamble, because you will lose everything sooner or later. The essence of investment is to win big bets and do a good job in fund management and risk management. It has nothing to do with gambling. The importance of fund management and risk management in financial markets depends on the correct analysis of market trends, fund management and risk management. To succeed in the financial market for a long time, these factors should be separated. Market forecast III. Fund management and risk management VII.
Among the novices who do margin trading in the foreign exchange market, the survival rate of investors who trade in the market every day will not exceed 5% in two years. These are the internal statistics of major banks at home and abroad. Of course, they will not openly destroy their business to outsiders. First of all, we should analyze why there is such a high failure rate. There are several reasons. First, I don't know anything about the operation principle of the market, blindly investing or gambling. Second, there is no concept of fund management and risk management at all, just don't know how to do it. Third, even after learning the principles of fund management and risk management, there is no discipline to implement these principles. Fourth, the leverage is too large to cope with the normal market turmoil. I deliberately did not mention the relationship between market analysis and success or failure. The level of market analysis is not unimportant, but it has nothing to do with the success or failure of investment. Everything in the market is either going up or down, and everyone, including complete novices, has the opportunity to do it right within a period of time.
After a period of training, it should not be difficult to reach twice the level of betting 1. Of course, bet three times, bet twice is better. However, these are not the key issues. If investors have made three bets, they should at least look at the level of 1. As long as the problems of fund management and risk management are properly handled, it should be enough to survive in the foreign exchange market. I know many novices will question my speech. However, this is the reality. The key to long-term success in the market is not the number of times you can see it, but how to deal with the wrong trend, how to improvise, how to deal with the right trend, and how to survive in the market.
Because depending on the direction of the market, it is always a question of whether the opportunity is big or not, and it can never be guaranteed. I mean, novices should spend 70% of their time studying how to deal with wrong decisions, how to improvise and how to expand profits at the right time, instead of 1000% of their time studying how to gamble a hundred times. It is not useless to study accurate "cheats". Of course, if you study in actual combat for many years, your level will improve and your investment will be better. Many big-name traders at the central bank level and the big fund level have excellent forecasting ability, but they don't care much about these. Because that's not the key to success or failure of investment. Anyone who thinks he can always look at the market correctly is just a dream.
If you tell me that you developed that system, you are only fooling yourself. If someone says he has developed a very effective trading system, focusing on how to manage funds and risks, he is a real expert. I hope everyone will learn more about fund management and risk management in the future. It doesn't matter whether those so-called shouting orders are right or not, and it has nothing to do with success or failure. The most important issue, which is related to success or failure, is how to manage funds and risks when it is right and how to manage funds and risks when it is wrong. Because there is only one secret or secret to success in the investment market. That is to ensure that you win more when you win and lose less when you lose. Therefore, fund management and risk management are the basis of this secret book. This is the eternal secret of the investment market. There is nothing new under the sun. The essentials of fund management and trading strategy are as follows. We made a list, which listed the essentials of fund management and the more important aspects of trading strategy.
1. Trade in the direction of moderate trend.
2. In the upward trend, buy by ups and downs; In the downward trend, sell every rise.
3. Let the profit increase fully and limit the loss to a small range.
4. Always set protective stop-loss instructions for positions to limit losses.
Don't make a deal on impulse, fight a planned war.
6. Make a plan first, then carry it out.
7. Pursue the essence of fund management.
8. Diversify investment, but pay attention to "going too far".
9. The return-to-risk ratio must be at least 3 1 before taking action.
10. The following principles should be followed when adding positions by pyramid method:
A. each subsequent position must be smaller than the previous position.
B. You can only increase the profit position.
C no more positions can be added to the loss position.
D. Set protective stop-loss instructions at the break-even point.
1 1. Never add margin, and don't throw live money into the dead warehouse.
12. In order to prevent the requirement of extra margin, we should ensure that we have at least 75% of the total margin. 1
3. Prior to the return of profit positions, the loss positions shall be closed first.
14. Unless you are engaged in extremely short-term transactions, you should always make good decisions outside the market, preferably during the closing period.
15. The research work should gradually transition from long-term to short-term.
16. Use the intraday chart to find the entry point and exit point.
17, master the skills of trading every other day before engaging in trading on the same day.
18. Ignore common sense as much as possible; Don't take anything said by the media too seriously.
19. Learn to be a minority in a down-to-earth manner. If your judgment of the market is correct, then most people will disagree with you.
20. Technical analysis skills need to be improved through accumulated study and practice. Always keep a modest attitude and keep learning and exploring.
2 1. Try to be concise. Complexity is not necessarily superior. Security Policy-Fund Management
The adjustment of margin is the freedom given to investors by the futures market. This free choice of authority will bring the most direct and full exposure of human nature-people always have a strong tendency to use enough margin. Futures is not an ordinary financial instrument, and its leverage is like "nuclear finance". Therefore, a high proportion of margin use will cause huge fluctuations in investment profits and losses-both capital explosion and rapid destruction. This abnormal phenomenon is driven by the devil, which is not the correct investment method, and its final outcome is eliminated by the market without exception. There is an analogy to illustrate: if the car is driving on the expressway at the speed of 120 yards, if it is safe and comfortable, then the probability of accidents will increase exponentially with each increase of 10 yards; When the vehicle speed reaches more than 220 yards, the possibility of an accident increases to 100% regardless of driving skills.
From this perspective, freedom is not all good. As far as fund management is concerned, there should be a statistical balance between freedom and security. Practical experience shows that when the capital utilization rate reaches 30%, it is most suitable for futures trading. Although the investor's technical level can appropriately adjust this ratio, the utilization rate of 30% is the benchmark principle of fund management. In actual transactions, we should establish the idea of "safety first, profit second" and do the following:
The overall trading position of 1 should be appropriate, and it is best not to worry;
2. Use funds in batches to reduce the overall risk of funds;
3 if you must overweight, you must adhere to the premise that the first position has been profitable;
4 Set the maximum order amount, and put an end to any excessive ideas. If you can make 10 orders, you might as well make 7 orders, and don't act like you have a grudge against the market;
5 at the outbreak point of the market, the single quantity can be moderately enlarged, but the premise is that the closing of the day is conducive to holding positions.
It can be said that the fund management is a concentrated reflection of the inner world of traders. Good fund management helps investors to maintain a harmonious relationship with the market, helps traders to give full play to their own level, and helps to improve the quality rather than quantity of transactions. In fact, investment is just a seed, and it doesn't need much. All we have to do is wait patiently-take root, sprout, blossom and bear rich fruits. However, in practice, the most common mistake we make is to be eager for quick success-always trying to increase the investment in margin, hoping to achieve excellent results in a short time. This impetuous mentality, which leads to danger, fear and failure, has never left its side before being completely defeated. In fact, the secret of making money lies in time and mentality, and in investors' patience and sharing trends. The opening of space takes time, and time is the most critical factor.