First of all, it is clear that the current grain depot auction is cyclical, which means it will not stop in the short term. In addition, this round of grain storage auction is a regular auction for harvesting new wheat, and its reserve price is basically the same as or even slightly higher than the market price, which largely shows that it is of little significance for the government to suppress the price of wheat in this round of auction!
Secondly, for the current farmers, they have experienced a roller coaster ride, and a large number of grain sources have entered the market. At present, the surplus at the grassroots level has been greatly reduced. Even the high-priced grain in the early stage has greatly reduced the average cost of building positions through bargain hunting, and the grain merchants' willingness to ship is relatively weakened, which is why the price reduction and milling enterprises that lasted for two days rarely acted!
Thirdly, the price difference between wheat and corn has narrowed, and the feeding advantage of wheat has begun to stand out. In addition, the increase in soybean meal price boosted the temperature of bran, and the profit of milling enterprises recovered, which still played a certain supporting role in the price of wheat! However, it should be noted that imported soybeans will arrive in Hong Kong, which may affect the price trend of soybean meal and may form new negative constraints on wheat!
Finally, everyone has been saying that demand is weak. If we only look at the consumption of flour, the overall difference is not very big. After all, it's rations. There are three main reasons for the sharp drop in wheat prices. First, last year's high yield, grass-roots farmers chasing high prices, less shipments, resulting in a significant increase in grain sources after the year. Second, excessive speculation of high wheat leads to wheat rising beyond market standards. With the bursting of the "bubble", the price drop is inevitable! Third, the demand for wheat is single, especially after entering the post-epidemic era. At present, many families are consuming the "stock" before the epidemic, but according to official data, the catering industry is recovering rapidly, which is conducive to the sale of flour!
With the acceleration of grain depot rotation, the market supply pressure may increase, but it mainly depends on the transaction situation. According to the transaction on Wednesday, there is not much room for wheat to fall back, but it should be noted that this round of grain storage is rotation, and the ultimate goal is to pay as much as possible, which is conducive to the price of new wheat. This year's new wheat yield is worrying, which will have a negative effect on wheat in 2022. The upcoming May Day is a good "vent"!
Although the era of high wheat prices seems to have passed, rising planting costs and unstable surrounding environment will inevitably prevent wheat from falling into the "dust", and there is still an upward trend. Bian Xiao believes that after a period of "leveling", the final price of wheat will remain at 1.55 yuan/kg!
For the current corn, I won't say much. Price fluctuation in Shandong and North China mainly refers to the arrival of goods by enterprises. In Northeast China, with the decrease of circulating grain sources, futures warmed up, grain holders' mentality was stable, and prices began to rebound steadily. Even in the face of the current decline in wheat prices, enterprises are relatively cautious in their operations. As for imported corn, even if it has certain advantages in price, it is very likely that it will not directly impact the domestic market and will be auctioned with more attention.
However, at this stage, corn is in the stage of bottoming out. Even though there is still a lot of bad news, the general trend has stabilized. We can think that the current corn is in a "top and bottom" situation, but the risk is relatively controllable and the price is also rising in the shock. At present, the mentality of grain holders is the key to affect market price fluctuations!
In the upcoming May Day holiday, tourism+catering is the main theme. At present, many tourist cities have begun to "warm up" in advance, and the demand for wheat and corn products has been significantly boosted. At present, the main grain holders are reluctant to ship, and there is likely to be a wave of rapid rise. If the boss has plans to ship, he must seize the middle and early stages of price increase. After all, a high probability price increase will cause a wave of volume increase! After the price rises rapidly, it is easy to fall rapidly! Therefore, it is necessary for grain farmers to make preparations early!
Summary: At present, it is an extremely "tormented" period for traders. The road ahead of the market is unknown, the market is shrouded in bearish sentiment, and the official attitude is unknown. In addition, it is less than two months before the new wheat goes on the market. However, with the tightening of supply and the recovery of downstream demand, the rising power of wheat and corn will continue to increase, and this round of wheat decline will have a certain impact on corn. In an acceptable range, more attention is paid to the recovery of feeding demand and the recent period.
Remarks: The above analysis of the corn and wheat market at this stage only represents personal views. For reference only, not as a basis for investment. Welcome to leave a message for discussion. Investment is risky and trading needs to be cautious!