If the ratio is greater than 1, it means that the total transaction volume is enlarged at this time; Magnification.
If the ratio is less than 1, it means that the total transaction volume is shrinking at this time; The number is shrinking.
He reflects the difference between the current turnover and the turnover in the last five days.
This difference indicates the activity of the handicap, and the greater the value, the more active the handicap. In a sense, the more it can reflect the handicap characteristics that the main force is ready to make a move immediately and be ready to attack at any time.
Quantitative data can be said to be the translator of handicap language and one of the secret weapons to gain insight into the short-term trend of the main force in ultra-short-term actual combat.
I firmly oppose investors taking the signals of the golden fork and the dead fork of the index curve as the basis for actual trading.
Completely different from all kinds of technical indicators, the ratio indicator is based on the comparison between the instantaneous average volume per minute and the average volume per minute for five consecutive days, rather than randomly selecting the volume of a certain day for comparison.
Therefore, it can objectively and truly reflect the handicap trading and its strength. From the transaction point of view, the ratio index is directly reflected in the region, which is more convenient and faster than other technical index curves.
The use of ratio indicators should follow the following principles.
1-When the trend of the ratio indicator line is upward and the stock price rises, you should buy but not sell until the ratio indicator line turns downward.
2- When the trend of the ratio indicator line is downward, it should be sold instead of bought. No matter whether the stock price is a new high or falling, we must avoid the downward trend of the ratio index in the short term.
3- After the daily limit of the stock price, the ratio indicator should go down rapidly. If the ratio index of the stock price limit is still up, it may be avoided if there is a main force to ship by the limit!
4= When the floor area ratio index goes up in two lines, it should be actively operated. At the same time, the stock price rose to a new high, and the floor area ratio index also rose to a new high. This shows that the rise of stock price can be amplified and supported, and it should be extreme product buying or holding.
★5= If the stock price falls more than the index, you should leave quickly, because the stock price decline at this time is affected by the decline in volume, and the stock price decline is terrible. ★
6- In short-term operation, if the stock price rises for the first time, the required volume ratio cannot exceed 5, otherwise it will not be conducive to the later rise of the stock price. If the stock price is in continuous heavy volume, the required heavy volume ratio cannot be greater than 3, otherwise the dealer may ship.
The 7-volume ratio standard is obviously lagging behind the change of volume.
Looking for short-term dark horse with ratio index
In practice, if you buy the stock at the bottom too early, it may be suppressed because the dealer will not pull it up before absorbing the goods, and it will be quilted if it is not done well. As for the stocks that have just broken through the consolidation platform, if they encounter the phenomenon of false breakthrough by bookmakers, they will sometimes fail. Therefore, some short-term experts in the market did not intervene in time if the first wave of stocks started. They would rather lose the opportunity for heavyweights to rise continuously than blindly chase after them and control the risk as little as possible.
Generally speaking, after a stock is released, the dealer will clean up the short-term floating chips and profit-making disks, so that investors who are optimistic about the stock can get involved, increase the average holding cost of the market, and reduce the negative forces when it rises again. Because the main force is optimistic about the market outlook, it is planned to fall back. Therefore, when it falls, the trading volume cannot be continuously enlarged, and it will shrink at important support points, and there will be fewer and fewer chips floating on the disk, indicating that most chips have been stuck. At this time, the conditions for raising the stock price again are met. If the transaction is enlarged again and the stock price rises, it is a good time to intervene. Because the short-term returns of stocks participating in the "shrinking callback and increasing volume" are quite high, the risk is much smaller than chasing up, which is the favorite of short-term customers. At present, some people in the market specialize in this kind of stock, which is particularly effective when the market is consolidating or oscillating.
So, how can we seize these opportunities? At ordinary times, we can look at the stocks with smaller recent trading volume by comparing the trading volume in stock software such as Gan Long, eliminate unpopular stocks and stocks with declining channels, and select those stocks whose trading volume continues to increase and shrink in recent days for tracking. When the stock price rises steadily and the 5-day moving average is inclined, and the 10 daily line forms a golden cross, you can intervene decisively. Usually, after the stock price continues to rise, the dealer will not give up the established strategic policy without special circumstances, destroying the good moving average and the trend of individual stocks. If the dealer is particularly fierce in dish washing, investors can also buy chips at a low price. It should be noted that the 30-day moving average of such stocks must still maintain an upward trend, otherwise it may be a "plague horse".
Combined with the actual combat experience in recent years, the author summarizes two "tips" to discuss with readers:
The first is that individual stocks start from the bottom or platform. After the increase of 10%, the dealer will make a decision according to the volume. If you think the time is not ripe, you will lower the stock price again, sometimes near the previous low. At this time, the trading volume has obviously shrunk. If there is a continuous small positive line or the bottom is gradually enlarged, the trading volume will be enlarged again, which indicates that a wave of rising prices will begin. For example, Dingqiu Industry (600078) started its business at the end of February, and its share price peaked at 1 1.2 yuan, and then fell to 9.46 yuan, close to the bottom before it started. At this time, the trading volume also contracted rapidly, reaching the effective level before the start. The effectiveness of March 2 1 is twice that of the previous day, and the bottom is rising one after another. The 30-day moving average goes flat and upward, and the 5-day moving average crosses the 10 moving average. At this time, you can intervene decisively. In the next few days, the trading volume will be enlarged to 8 million shares, and it is possible to enter the market in full position. In May, the stock hit 19 yuan, with an increase of over 80%!
In the second case, the dealer washes the stock in the middle of the stock rise, and after the stock price hits a new high, he does not sort it out, or does a little sorting, and violently suppresses the shock position. For example, Friendship Group (600778) announced a turnover of more than 20 million on July 4, and adjusted it two days later. On the first day, the turnover immediately decreased to be supported, and the turnover doubled again. At this time, if the fifth line is hooked from bottom to top, there will be 30% income in the next four days, and the income is not rich!
No matter what kind of reading software, when you check individual stocks, it is more important to look at the data frame on the right side of the screen besides the atlas, which reflects the real-time trading of individual stocks. At the top of this area are real-time trading orders, and at the bottom are trading details. In the middle, the dynamic data summarized by stages according to the transaction instructions and transaction details are given, including current price, average price, increase, current position, highest, lowest, total hand, current hand and lowest.
We can't help asking, why should such a proportional index be displayed in this area? Instead of other instant messages? It is conceivable that this is a recognized practical turnover index, otherwise it will not enjoy such a high-level "treatment".
From the definition of ratio index, it is the ratio of the average turnover per minute of the day to the average turnover per minute of the first five days, and the formula is: (instantaneous turnover of the day/accumulated N minutes since the opening)/(total turnover of the first five days/1200 minutes). This indicator reflects the difference between the current trading intensity of the handicap and the trading intensity in the last five days. The bigger the gap, the more active the handicap. In a sense, the more it can reflect the handicap characteristics of the main force ready to attack at any time. Therefore, quantitative data can be said to be the translator of handicap language and one of the secret weapons to gain insight into the short-term trend of the main force in ultra-short-term actual combat.
For a long time, I firmly oppose investors taking the signals of the golden fork and the dead fork of the index curve as the basis for actual trading. This is the realm of using indicators. I don't know that many technical indicators are written by subjective feelings and can't stand the verification of scientific statistics. Even the technical indicators that seem to have a high winning rate at present will have great differences in winning rates under different megatrends.
For example, the data used in the random KDJ indicator is the closing price of the day minus the lowest price of 9 days, then divided by the highest price minus the lowest price of 9 days, and then compiled into the KDJ indicator with a simple moving average function. This indicator does not make full use of objective data, but extracts the highest price and the lowest price for n days, which makes the actual reflection of the indicator seriously distorted and leads to misleading. We use it as a conditional stock selection formula to test its success rate, and find that the success rate of earning 10% every month is less than 50%, which is really worse than gamblers. In addition, the market-recognized technical indicators such as MACD and RSI are difficult to truly reflect the market, but most investors regard them as treasures. No wonder ten bets and nine losses.
Completely different from the above-mentioned technical indicators, the volume ratio indicator is based on the comparison between the instantaneous average volume per minute and the average volume per minute for five consecutive days, rather than randomly selecting the volume of a certain day as a comparison, so it can objectively and truly reflect the volume of transactions and its strength. From the transaction point of view, the ratio index is directly reflected in the region, which is more convenient and faster than other technical index curves.
One of the Secret Weapons of Ultra-short Line-Time-sharing Average Price Line
The more people who have many years of actual combat experience, the more they despise some of the most primitive and basic information provided by the disk. This arrogant and impetuous psychology will often drown out our objective understanding of some seemingly ordinary but very effective analytical tools, just like the yellow average price line echoing the time-sharing trend line, which is actually a very important research tool for super short-term experts.
Different from the moving average based on the daily closing price on the K-line chart, the average price is calculated by dividing the total turnover of the handicap by the total turnover of the handicap, and the comprehensive position cost of all participants is calculated very accurately. Therefore, with this average price line, we can do some simple reasoning on the disk:
When the stock price continues to run above the average price line, it shows that the market expectation is good, the buying enthusiasm is high, and most of the investors who participated in the day can make money, which is a strong feature of handicap; When the stock price continues to run below the average price line, it shows that the market expectation is poor and the selling enthusiasm is high. Most investors who participate in the day are losing money, which is a weak feature; When the average price line continues to rise from a low level, it shows that market expectations are enhanced, investors enter the market to push up the stock price, and the comprehensive position cost is constantly rising, which supports the stock price; When the average price line continues to fall from a high level, it shows that the market expectation is poor, investors have left the market to force the stock price to fall, and the comprehensive position cost continues to fall, which has suppressed the stock price.
Generally speaking, yesterday's closing price is the watershed of today's handicap. If the average price line continues to rise above yesterday's closing price within half an hour after the opening, then the stock is extremely strong, with a high probability of closing in Changyang on the same day; Within half an hour after the opening, the average price line continued to hit a new low lower than yesterday's closing price. The stock is extremely weak and has a high probability of closing at midday.
In short, the average price line is an important research tool for ultra-short-term actual combat. It crosses the time-sharing trend in a random way, and the use of temporary transactions varies from person to person. Especially at the end of the main rise of extreme speculation, the pulled-up stock price suddenly changed its strong and upward personality and fell sharply after breaking through the average price line. If the average price line is recovered, it is an ultra-short-term exit signal.
Identify typical short-term dishwashing
Washing dishes is an essential means for the dealer to clean up the floating chips on the way to get cheap chips when he is sucking chips at a low position. How to identify the dealer's dish washing action from a more microscopic perspective will play a positive role for investors to seize the opportunity to purchase goods in time. This paper introduces several important dishwashing techniques from the microscopic point of view.
Wash dishes with a rope
When the stock is sideways on a higher platform (or the stock has been rising slowly for some time), there are continuous negative lines on the K-line chart, but the stock price does not fall or only slightly falls (these negative lines are called cross negative lines). This situation is a kind of dish washing, which is often a precursor to a sharp rise in stock prices.
Principle: no matter how stupid the dealer is, the stock price will not fall when shipping, and the K line will close every day. If the platform is closed every day, how can retail investors dare not take over? In other words, retail investors not only dare not take orders, but also sell them out of fear (and the platform closes in heavy volume every day, but the stock price does not rise or rises slightly, which is often a sign that the dealer is shipping. For example, Bao Lihua in June, 5438 +20001October, Luoniushan in June, 5438+1October, 26-65438+1October 3, 2000. This situation is a kind of dish washing, which is often a precursor to a sharp rise in stock prices.
Practical application principle of silver string dishwashing;
1, the application of cross-shadow dishwashing is that fully hyped stocks are prohibited from sideways on the way up and at the bottom.
2. It is the best buying point when the positive line is covered by a string of yin.
3. For some stocks on the way up, after the stock price has shrunk sideways at a relatively high level, the big single trading volume fluctuated sideways on a certain day, and the trading volume was enlarged and closed at the end of the year. This situation is often a precursor to a rapid rise and should be intervened in time.
Principle: traders should bring some off-exchange funds after washing and before pulling up. However, due to extreme shrinkage, it is difficult to buy, and it is necessary to reverse the big single sideways. Because the watcher will follow up at this time, it is often necessary to wash the dishes 1-4 days after the appearance of the positive line, and then pull them up. Rushan Push, Chengdu Hualian, Guilin Tourism, China Panlv, etc.
Note: Sometimes, the heavy volume of cross-yin is the dealer's throwing behavior, so he continues to close the yin because he is afraid of chip loss.
For example, Chengdu Hualian: As can be seen from the K-line chart of the stock, after a period of slow climb, the stock was washed with a string of dirty dishes from April 7 to April 4, 2000 17, and suddenly rose and oscillated on April 6 18, belonging to traders with chips outside the market. After that, two negative wires were collected to clean up the floating chips, and then they began to pull up on April 2 1. Shantui shares: Shantui shares began to wash the dishes after slowly rising before June 2000 1, and its share price did not fall. June 12, the volume closed, which is a precursor to the off-site pull-up. After four days of cleaning and floating, it began to rise sharply, and its share price rose from 9 yuan to above 18 yuan.
Decryption short-term trend judgment skills
Practical advice: the rise and fall of stock price and its evolution are the result of the interaction of various factors in the stock market. Therefore, when solving the market, we must understand the relationship between the changes of various influencing factors and the disk, be good at finding its development trend from subtle changes, adjust the operation ideas, and flexibly apply it to the actual stock market. Therefore, a comprehensive judgment on the policy, capital, fundamentals, technology and news that affect the stock market is the basis of the solution. The time for unpacking is usually short. The most common is the same day, the same week.
First of all, market analysis skills
1, solving market problems with news: Since its establishment, Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets have been influenced by policy news, and every stage of the market has been influenced by an obvious long-short policy factor, and the trend of this policy will become the most direct driving force for market ups and downs. The policy orientation of each stage is the vane of the main action, and the influence of news is more effective in the sensitive period of the market.
In addition, there may be bigger stocks that are good and bad. If the affected stocks may appear continuous ups and downs, especially the component index stocks, it will also play a directional guiding role in the short-term trend of the broader market. The centralized release period of individual stocks (such as interim reports and annual reports) and everyone's expectations for the news will also have an impact on the market trend.
2. Solve market problems with technology: The first technical indicator that affects the market is the volume of transactions. Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets will have a strong market only under the background of relatively large trading volume, otherwise it is unlikely to continue to strengthen; The secondary indicators that affect the market are the medium-term moving averages (30-day moving averages and 60-day moving averages). The direction of the medium-term moving average and its position relative to the stock price will make the trend of the market become obvious. The third level indicator that affects the market is the weekly KDJ indicator. When the two technical indicators reach two extremes, the original trend of the market will be corrected or accelerated.
3. Solve market problems with leading stocks: When the market appears obvious ups and downs, there will be one or several stocks that have great influence on the market at each stage, and new changes in technical trend characteristics and fundamental news will also correct and accelerate the market trend. At the same time, we should pay attention to the purpose of the rise and fall of the plate with the largest market turnover.
4. Solve the market with the main force: the largest main force group in the market, such as the overall operation direction of funds, will play an important role in the market trend. Tracking the operation direction of the fund can track the overall performance of the stocks held by its heavy positions. In addition, from the interval comparison of the top stocks, it can be found that the strength of shorting and shorting, whether there are obvious hot spots of ups and downs is also a reference to judge whether the market ups and downs are sustainable. Under normal circumstances, the intentional collective action of the main force often lasts for a long time, while the fluctuation of technical nature is not sustainable.
Second, the skills of analyzing individual stocks
The standard of stock unwinding is mainly to judge short-term stock opportunities and potential stock opportunities. The main principles of judgment are as follows:
1. According to the characteristics of short-term stocks selected in the price limit list, find short-term market opportunities and risks, especially to guard against such risks.
2. According to the characteristics of recent stock trading volume ranking, we can find out whether there is a main force in the market. Under normal circumstances, the volume of inactive stocks and stocks with good fundamentals has increased, indicating that the main force has actively entered the market; The amplification of the original active stocks and oversold stocks shows that it is the toss of the old main force.
3. According to the record of intraday trading characteristics and the calculation of comprehensive indicators, new potential stocks are found, and the dynamic changes of the original potential stocks are tracked and analyzed.
4. At each stage, we should follow some stocks with obvious opportunities, and the opportunities of these stocks must not be let go.
Third, the optimization skills of operation
The most important thing to solve the market and individual stocks is to solve operational problems. Common operational decisions are as follows.
The operation of judging the strength of the central line of the market;
1. Appropriately invest funds in hot spots and leading brands with large turnover.
2. Carry out rhythm arbitrage stock exchange according to the technical indicators of the portfolio.
3. Potential stocks that have been tracked for a long time in investment time.
Judging the weakening operation of the market center line;
1, try to sell half of the positions first. This operation should be firm and decisive, and there should be no illusions.
2. Set conditions to sell the remaining half of the shares. There are two situations, one is a stop loss situation, and the other is an increase situation.
3. The condition of choosing to do more again is that the volume of transactions continues to enlarge.
Countless operations on market trends:
1. Small positions are operated according to the combined technical indicators, and the actual situation of heavy positions or light positions should be adjusted to this situation.
2. Defend against blind spots.
3, short-term operation of propeller stocks, in addition to paying attention to whether the market is in the first half or the second half, the operation in the first half can be more active, and the second half needs to be vigilant.
4. Comprehensive conclusion: The market is still on the way up. As large brokerage groups and fund groups join the battlefield, individual stocks will be more active.
Short-term priority principle
Investors sometimes encounter such a situation: the original mid-line position has obvious short-term opportunities. What should I do? There are roughly three answers. One is to adhere to the original plan and adhere to the central position; One is to take out some positions, take advantage of short-term opportunities, and then fill the mid-line positions; Another is to sell them all and look for opportunities.
Of these three methods, I think the second one is preferable. This is because:
First, don't waste market opportunities. Now that you have recognized and foreseen obvious market opportunities, why should you miss them? An important aspect of market operation is to make money by making use of market fluctuations. Midline fluctuation is as important as short-term fluctuation. If you already have a chance to make a profit, you must attack and not give up.
Second, it embodies the principle of steady investment. If there are obvious profit opportunities, it is safe to leave the bag first. The profit on the book is unreliable, and it is true that you can make money. In this way, we will accumulate small profits and eventually become a real big winner.
Third, there is no chance to give up the center line. We took out some mid-line positions and changed them into short-term positions, and still retained quite a few or even most of them. If the short-term profit is rich and no longer covered, it can also be regarded as batch operation. Batch operation is the key to the success of securities investment.
This second method has been elevated to a conceptual level. As far as the combination of short-term and medium-term is concerned, it can be called the principle of establishing short-term priority. At present, many investment funds adhere to the investment philosophy of "band operation is the mainstay, supplemented by short-term operation". My understanding is to make full use of short-term opportunities. Securities investment funds are huge, so it is impossible to give priority to short-term, and short-term priority is not necessarily convenient. But for independent investors, the short-term priority principle is almost completely feasible, and it is also in line with the relatively fierce market atmosphere of China stock market.
Establish the principle of short-term priority, is it to buy and earn some money before selling? That's not what I meant, not at all. The premise of this operation is that investors have recognized and foreseen obvious short-term opportunities, not how much they have earned. Whether to operate or not and how much to operate in batches depends on investors' judgment on the size of short-term opportunities. A clear judgment of short-term opportunities is the core factor. If you are vague about short-term opportunities and clear about mid-line opportunities, don't start work easily.
Finally, it should be emphasized that the principle of establishing short-term priority here is not to advocate investors to fully seize short-term opportunities or mainly engage in short-term operations. It is based on advocating midline operation. It is aimed at a special situation: there are mid-line positions, but there are obvious short-term opportunities. On other occasions, under other conditions, there is no universal significance. So strictly regulate its use, investors should not think it is of little use. In fact, it is precisely because of its concreteness that it highlights its practical value.
Three short-term magic weapons
It is too difficult to find a "century-old shop" in the current stock market. In an immature stock market, there is no need to argue too much about whether it is gold in the long run or silver in the short run. Haven't you noticed that "Oriental Electronics", once ranked among the top 50 in China, is now labeled as "ST", and the others are even more promising. Experience is a loss. Over the past ten years, I have accumulated a set of relatively effective short-term investment strategies, which often make me gain something. So I always think that as long as you are diligent in thinking and good at grasping opportunities, short-term is also "golden"!
1, small-cap stocks are better than large-cap stocks: the key to short-term operation is to grasp the investment opportunity and investment varieties. Experience has proved that small-cap stocks are much better than large-cap stocks. Small-cap stocks are easy for traders to operate and the cost of restructuring is relatively light, which is the main reason why small-cap stocks are favored by large institutions. Youzhuang's share price is more active and will be large. If it is big, it will attract more retail investors to follow suit. If there is a market base, it will further promote institutions to enter small-cap stocks. Therefore, in the choice of stock varieties, the first consideration is whether the stock is big or small. From this, I found that small-cap new shares have the most opportunities and the greatest benefits. As long as the following conditions are met, I will not hesitate to buy this stock: the number of shares in circulation is less than 50 million, the turnover rate on the first day is over 80%, and the turnover rate on the first three trading days is over 100%. With this little skill, I managed to more than double the deposit of a relative from the second half of 2000 to 200 1. The most proud thing is that I bought "yantai wanhua" at 200 1, and it was not until 53 yuan that 29 yuan bought it. It can be said that it is bought in time, runs fast and has endless aftertaste.
2. Low price is fiercer than high price: price is also an important factor in short-term stock trading. Experience tells us that low-priced stocks are fiercer than high-priced stocks! This can best be reflected in st shares. Low-priced ST stocks are often very active because of the support of restructuring themes. Zhuang shares can use the 5% price limit to help rise and fall, thus forming a huge short-term profit space. The reason why stocks are ST must be caused by poor performance and poor management. It is understandable that the stock price has been depressed as a result. But to some extent, it has become a favorable condition for bookmakers to take advantage of low prices. Institutions are always against investors, so I often buy stocks when the stock price plummets a week after being put on the st hat, and operate fast-forward and fast-out, which is really dancing with Zhuang. If speculation is an art, then I think speculation in junk stocks can best reflect its artistic side, because you can't make money with common sense, and reverse thinking is the most useful. Therefore, as a short-term expert, low-priced T shares are quite attractive varieties, but you must not hold them for a long time.
3. Xinzhuang shares are more fierce than Zhuangzi shares: In addition, I think short-term speculation is to follow Zhuang and Zhuang. Judging from the characteristics of the disk, we can basically distinguish between Xinzhuang and Laozhuang. The stocks of Laozi and Zhuangzi and Zhuangzi have a long-term speculation trend, and the bookmakers have a high degree of manipulation. This kind of stock does not have the value of short-term speculation, because a highly controlled stock means that the organization's next action is to find a way to ship, rather than financing. Such stocks often make some long traps from time to time to slowly trap the follow-up market. As a short-term investor, it is really not cost-effective to get involved in these stocks. So I mainly look for some stocks in Xinzhuang for short-term speculation. I will observe for a long time some stocks whose share price has not increased much in the past year or two and whose turnover rate is low in the early stage. As long as you find that the stock price has changed dramatically, you can consider short-term intervention. As the saying goes, stand as high as you can.
Using the above personal experience, I bought a dozen new shares similar to "yantai wanhua". Since July 2000, I have repeatedly speculated on low-priced stocks like ST Shenhua Yuan (now Shenhua Yuan A). Because of the short-term operation, the stock exchange went smoothly. I can't remember exactly how many I bought now, but I dare not forget one thing, that is, short-term intervention must set a stop loss position and must not admit defeat.