For the current energy market, in addition to the high price of crude oil, the rising price of coal and natural gas has also become a thorny top priority.
Affected by rising energy prices, global electricity prices have risen sharply since last year, hitting record highs.
With the arrival of this summer, the prices of coal and natural gas are still high, and the world is worried that the global electricity price will be "unprecedented" this summer.
1, natural gas prices skyrocketed.
Since the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the price of natural gas has increased the most.
On the one hand, because Russia is a big exporter of natural gas, after the conflict broke out, the supply of Russian gas was tight and the price rose sharply; On the other hand, the price of natural gas in Europe has been rising since last year.
In the past, Europe has been vigorously developing new energy sources, but last year, due to multiple factors such as weather, new energy sources almost stopped, which forced Europe to return to its dependence on traditional energy sources.
However, Europe's traditional energy sources are highly dependent on foreign countries. Crude oil, natural gas and coal are highly dependent on imports, and the dependence on foreign countries reaches 60%.
Therefore, the surge in demand has led to a sharp rise in natural gas prices, with the highest increase reaching 10 times.
This influence has continued to this day.
On the other hand, with the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the impact of a series of sanctions, Europe is reducing its dependence on Russian natural gas, thus turning to import a large number of American natural gas.
Since the beginning of this year, the price of natural gas futures in the United States has risen by 127%, which has been at the highest level since 2008 for a long time.
2. Coal stocks are in a hurry.
More difficult than natural gas is coal.
On the one hand, with the soaring price of natural gas, the price of coal has also risen sharply because of the surge in demand.
The futures price of high-quality thermal coal in Newcastle Port of Australia increased by more than 140% during the year, while the market price of thermal coal in the United States also climbed by 40% during the year, which not only reached a record high, but also more than doubled that of a year ago.
On the other hand, global coal stocks have also fallen to a low level.
For example, in September last year, the coal inventory of power plants in the United States fell to the lowest level since the 1970s. Coupled with the surge in demand, inventory is even more urgent.
According to the latest data from us energy information administration, in March this year, the coal inventory of American power plants was about 44% lower than the average level of 13 in the past.
For another example, India, the world's largest coal consumer, is greatly affected by geopolitical conflicts and high temperature weather, which increases the demand for coal. However, India is a big coal consumer, and the surge in demand has caused coal stocks to fall to a new low since 20 14.
In order to increase coal supply, Indian coal companies will import coal in the near future, which will be the first time in the past seven years.
In addition, Europe's previous ban on Russian coal imports will take effect in August this year, further aggravating the global coal supply shortage.
3. The global electricity price has risen sharply.
The high prices of coal and natural gas also bring great pressure to global electricity.
According to the latest data in the United States, 70% of the power grids in the United States are overloaded, and about 1 1 states are also at risk of power outage.
In Japan, the power supply was already in a tight state in March. It is expected that even if next winter comes, the power supply will still be in a tight state. The government calls on the whole people to save energy and watch less TV.
The pressure on electricity prices in Europe is even greater. For example, in the first quarter of this year, the price of household electricity in Italy increased by 65,438+0,365,438+0%. Spain's electricity price in February also rose 24 times compared with the same period of last year; Many families in Germany say that they can hardly afford the electricity bill; Not long ago, France's largest power producer also said that it would cut its nuclear power output target again this year. It is expected that the electricity price will rise by 8.6% again in the fourth quarter after the reduction.
At present, with the arrival of summer, the weather is getting hotter and hotter, and the peak of power demand is coming.
But obviously, with the rising global coal and natural gas prices, the whole world is worried that the global electricity price will really "break the sky" again this summer.