Main recommendations
Bureau of Statistics: In September, CPI increased by 1.7% and PPI decreased by 2. 1%.
In September, excavator sales increased by more than 60% year-on-year.
Market review
Market comments: The market returns to range volatility, so it is advisable to flexibly control positions in operation and strengthen band participation.
Macro perspective: Central Bank: Pratt & Whitney small and micro loans grew rapidly, and loan interest rates continued to decline.
Construction machinery: the new and old infrastructure projects will continue the prosperity of construction machinery, and the industry valuation is expected to increase.
Futures information
Metal energy: gold 404.82, up 0.15%; Copper 5 1290, down 0.10%; Rebar 3578, down 0.61%; Rubber 13325, up by 0.04%; The PVC index was 6835, down by 0.22%; Zheng Chun 2057, up 0.69%; Shanghai Aluminum 14485, up 0.10%; Shanghai nickel 1 17830, up1.05%; Iron ore was 777.5, down 2.26%; Coke 2076.0, down 0.24%; Coking coal 1339.5, flat; Brent oil was 43.82, down 0.90%;
Agricultural products: soybean oil 70 18, down 0.68%; Corn 2553, down1.16%; Palm oil 6090, down1.39%; Zheng Mian 14370, up1.38%; Zheng Mai 2688, down 0.26%; White sugar 5272, up 0.21%; Apple 8234, up1.17%; Jujube 10075, down 0.54%;
Exchange rate: Euro/USD 1. 17, down 0.35%; USD/RMB 6.72, up 0.14%; USD/HK$ 7.75, flat.
Second, the key recommendation
1. Statistics Bureau: In September, CPI increased 1.7%, while PPI decreased by 2. 1%.
Event: In September 2020, the national consumer price rose by 1.7% year-on-year. Among them, the urban increase was 1.6%, and the rural increase was 2.1%; Food prices rose by 7.9%, while non-food prices were flat; Consumer goods prices rose by 2.6% and service prices rose by 0.2%. From June to September, the national consumer price rose by 3.3% year-on-year. In September 2020, the ex-factory price of industrial producers nationwide decreased by 2. 1% year-on-year, and increased by 0.1%month-on-month; The purchase price of industrial producers decreased by 2.3% year-on-year and increased by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter. From June to September, the ex-factory price of industrial producers decreased by 2.0% compared with the same period of last year, and the purchase price of industrial producers decreased by 2.6%.
Comments: CPI continues the previous downward trend. Against the background of relatively low pork prices and high food price base last year, it is expected that the follow-up CPI will run at a low level, with less inflationary pressure. In terms of PPI, on the premise that the supply contraction is unsustainable and there is no stronger policy stimulus on the demand side than expected, PPI will continue the trend of low slope repair. At present, the performance of CPI and PPI is generally in line with expectations, and it is not expected to restrict monetary policy.
(investment consultant Zhong Yanling registered investment consultant certificate number: S02606 13020024)
In February and September, excavator sales increased by more than 60% year-on-year.
Event:10 On June 55438+05, the industry statistics disclosed by China Construction Machinery Industry Association showed that 26,034 excavators were sold in September this year, a year-on-year increase of 64.8%. Among them, 22,598 vehicles were sold in the domestic market, a year-on-year increase of 765,438+0.4%. The export sales volume was 3,436 vehicles, up 3 1.3% year-on-year. From June 5438 to September this year, a total of 236,508 excavators were sold, up 32.0% year-on-year. Among them, the domestic market sales volume was 265,438+02,820 vehicles, up 33.2% year-on-year. The export sales volume was 23,688 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 22.2%.
Comments: September excavator sales growth exceeded expectations. With the continuous recovery of real estate infrastructure investment and the demand for manual upgrading and environmental protection upgrading, the boom of excavators is expected to continue. At the same time, with the brand effect of head enterprises further emerging, industry concentration will accelerate, and leading enterprises will benefit the most.
(investment consultant Zhong Yanling registered investment consultant certificate number: S02606 13020024)
Third, the market review
Market comments: The market returns to range volatility, so it is advisable to flexibly control positions in operation and strengthen band participation.
On Thursday, major stock indexes continued to fluctuate slightly, with a turnover of 764 billion in the two cities. On the disk, textile and clothing, coal, insurance banks and other sectors were among the top gainers, while shipbuilding, gallium nitride, third-generation semiconductors, photovoltaics and other sectors were among the top losers, and the speculation of industry sectors was greatly divided. In the news, the new statement of the central bank allows the macro leverage ratio to rise in stages, which is conducive to continuing to consolidate the achievements of the national economy and create conditions for the future. In addition, the expectation of RMB appreciation is still strong, and short-term stock indexes are expected to continue to fluctuate slightly. In operation, it is advisable to flexibly control positions and strengthen band participation. It is suggested to pay attention to bargain hunting: new energy, semiconductors, chemicals, construction machinery and other sectors. The stock market is risky, so you need to be cautious in investing.
(investment consultant? Where's Gu? Registered Investment Consultant CertificateNo.: S026066 1 1020066)
Macro perspective: Central Bank: Pratt & Whitney small and micro loans grew rapidly, and loan interest rates continued to decline.
Event: The central bank released the China inclusive finance Index Analysis Report (20 19), which mentioned that the small and micro loans of Pratt & Whitney grew rapidly, the coverage of supporting small and micro businesses continued to expand, and the loan interest rate continued to decline.
Comments: At the end of 20 19, the balance of Pratt & Whitney small and micro loans was 1 1.59 trillion yuan, up 23. 1% year-on-year, up 7.9 percentage points from the end of last year, up 2.09 trillion yuan for the whole year and 852.5 billion yuan more. According to the news, the central bank's support for small and micro loans is obvious, and it has basically been implemented from the data.
(Investment Consultant Gu registered investment consultant certificate number: S026066 1 1020066)
Construction machinery: the new and old infrastructure projects will continue the prosperity of construction machinery, and the industry valuation is expected to increase.
New and old infrastructure projects strive to extend the prosperity of construction machinery, and the approval of urban rail is accelerated: in the face of sluggish external demand caused by the spread of overseas epidemics, new and old infrastructure projects will become the main source of growth. The development of infrastructure will directly stimulate the growth of demand for construction machinery, and it is suggested to actively pay attention to the relevant beneficiaries of the industry.
(Investment Consultant Gu registered investment consultant certificate number: S026066 1 1020066)