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Shanghai petroleum futures today's analysis report
According to media reports, China crude oil futures is expected to be listed on June 65438+1October 18. Some futures companies have received the listing time information and are asking customers with trading needs to open accounts as soon as possible, so as to complete the application for trading codes before the listing of crude oil futures. Prior to this, the exchange has conducted many tests to ensure the smooth launch of crude oil futures. Crude oil futures have been brewing for many years and have been postponed several times. Shanghai International Energy Trading Center under the Shanghai Futures Exchange will be referred to as INE for short, and domestic buyers will be allowed to conduct futures trading in RMB. In addition, foreign investors are allowed to invest, which is the first case in China's commodity market.

What's special about crude oil futures compared with other varieties? Crude oil futures is the first open futures product in China, which is different from the current domestic futures products in platform construction, market participants, pricing methods and many other aspects. The biggest highlight and innovation of crude oil futures contract design can be summarized in seventeen words, namely "international platform, net price trading, bonded delivery and RMB pricing".

International platform: the internationalization of trading, delivery and settlement links to facilitate the free, efficient and convenient participation of domestic and foreign traders. Relying on the international crude oil spot market, domestic and foreign traders, including multinational oil companies, crude oil traders, investment banks, etc. In order to promote the formation of benchmark prices reflecting the relationship between supply and demand of crude oil market in China and Asia-Pacific time zone.

Net price transaction: it is the net price excluding customs duties and value-added tax, which is different from the current situation that the domestic futures transaction price all includes tax, which is convenient for direct comparison with the tax-free price in the international market and avoids the influence of tax policy changes on the transaction price.

Bonded delivery: physical delivery depends on bonded oil depots, and bonded spot trade is mainly priced at net price excluding tax, and bonded trade has less restrictions on participants. Bonded oil depots can also serve as a link between domestic and foreign crude oil markets, which is conducive to the participation and delivery of international crude oil spot and futures traders.

Rmb pricing: that is, trading and delivery are carried out in RMB, and foreign exchange funds such as US dollars are accepted as deposits.

The following is the standard crude oil futures contract published by Shanghai Energy Trading Center. The trading unit is 1 1,000 barrels per hand, with the minimum price change of 0. 1 RMB/barrel and the minimum price limit of 4%. Trading hours are from 9:00 am to afternoon 1 1:30 pm 1:30 to 3:00 pm.

Crude oil futures standard contract

Trading variety

Medium sulfur crude oil

Trading unit

1000 barrels/hand

Quotation unit

Yuan (RMB)/barrel

(The transaction quotation is the price excluding tax)

Minimum variable price

0. 1 Yuan (RMB)/barrel

Price limit range

Not more than 4% of the settlement price of the previous trading day.

Contract delivery month

The last 1- 12 months is a continuous month, and the next eight months.

trading hour

9: 00 am-165438+ 0: 30 am, 65438+0:30-3:00 pm and other trading hours specified by Shanghai International Energy Trading Center.

last trading day

The last trading day of the first month before the delivery month; Shanghai International Energy Trading Center has the right to adjust the last trading day according to national statutory holidays.

delivery date

Five consecutive trading days after the last trading day.

Delivery quality

Medium sulfur crude oil has a benchmark quality of API 32.0 and a sulfur content of 1.5%. The specific oil types and premium for delivery shall be stipulated separately by Shanghai International Energy Trading Center.

place of delivery

Shanghai international energy trading center appointed delivery warehouse

Minimum trading margin

5% of the contract value

Mode of delivery

Actual delivery

Event code

South Carolina (SC)

Listed institutions

Shanghai International Energy Trading Center

Major international crude oil futures exchanges At present, the most influential crude oil futures trading centers in the world are the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) and Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) under CME. The corresponding WTI and Brent crude oil futures play the role of benchmark crude oil contracts in the United States and Europe respectively. Crude oil futures contracts listed in other countries (or regions) have less influence, including Oman crude oil futures listed on Dubai Commodity Exchange (DME); Indian Mercantile Exchange (MCX) crude oil futures and Brent crude oil futures; TOCOM Middle East crude oil futures; Brent crude oil futures of Moscow Stock Exchange; Ural crude oil futures of St. Petersburg International Commodity Exchange, etc.

The difference between China's crude oil futures scheme and several major international crude oil futures varieties lies in the delivery level, contract scale, quotation unit, trading time and listing month. The following is a comparison chart between them.

Conditions for participating in crude oil futures trading: 500,000 individuals and 654.38+00,000 institutions.

It is understood that opening an account needs to meet the following conditions:

1. Available funds: 500,000 RMB or equivalent foreign currency for individual investors and 0/10,000 RMB or equivalent foreign currency for institutional investors.

2. Knowledge test: the account holder must participate in the futures trading test arranged by the account opening institution and pass it.

3. Trading experience: the account holder must have 65,438+00 trading days and participated in more than 65,438+00 simulated domestic futures trading records, or have more than 65,438+00 overseas futures trading records in the last three years.

Four modes for overseas customers to participate in crude oil trading 1. Members of domestic futures companies directly participate in crude oil futures on behalf of overseas customers;

2. After accepting the entrustment of overseas customers, overseas intermediaries entrust members of domestic futures companies or participants of overseas special brokers (one household and one yard) to participate in crude oil futures trading;

3. Overseas special brokerage participants accept the entrustment of overseas customers to participate in crude oil futures (direct entry trading, settlement and delivery are entrusted to futures company members);

4. As a special non-brokerage participant outside the energy center, participate in crude oil futures.

The significance of crude oil futures is 1, which provides a hedging tool for petroleum, petrochemical and related enterprises.

China's dependence on foreign oil is increasing day by day. At present, imports account for more than 55%, and there is a strong demand for the preservation and price locking of imported crude oil. According to China's WTO accession agreement, foreign enterprises get the same national treatment as domestic oil enterprises, and foreign enterprises enter the domestic oil market by virtue of the dual advantages of pricing priority and oil hedging. If domestic enterprises cannot hedge through oil futures trading, they will be in a more passive and unfavorable position.

Other petroleum and petrochemical enterprises, such as some private enterprises, have no pricing power in the industrial chain, so it is urgent to hedge in the crude oil futures market, lock in production and operation costs or expected profits, and enhance their ability to resist market price risks.

2. Strive for the pricing power of crude oil and enhance international competitiveness.

Because there is no authoritative benchmark price of crude oil in the Asia-Pacific region, the "Asian premium" makes China spend about 2 billion dollars more on imported crude oil every year. In the past two decades, because China and other Asian countries have no pricing power, regardless of the difference in freight rates, the prices paid by major Asian oil-consuming countries to oil-producing countries in the Middle East are higher than those of European and American countries that import crude oil from the same region by 1- 1.5 USD.

From the perspective of Asia-Pacific, the competition for the Asia-Pacific oil pricing center has become increasingly fierce in recent years, and China is in a relatively passive position. The two largest energy futures markets in Asia are Japan oil futures market and Singapore oil futures market. China Daqing crude oil is priced by Minas crude oil, Shengli crude oil and Dagang crude oil are priced by Xinta crude oil, and Bohai crude oil is priced by Durian crude oil. The introduction of crude oil futures will undoubtedly help China to compete for international pricing power and stabilize the domestic economic operation.

What kinds of crude oil are there?

According to different standards, crude oil can be divided into the following categories:

Classification by composition: paraffin-based crude oil, naphthenic base crude oil and intermediate base crude oil;

Classification by sulfur content: ultra-low sulfur crude oil, low sulfur crude oil, sulfur crude oil and high sulfur crude oil;

Classification by relative density: light crude oil, medium crude oil and heavy crude oil.

Why should crude oil be measured in barrels? What's the relationship between barrels and tons?

The first two places in the world where industrial oil flows are rich in wine, and they are also famous in their own countries. People who hit the industrial oil flow, without exception, use barrels to fill the crude oil they just hit.

1870, Rockefeller established the standard oil company. They use their own barrels and deliver them themselves. 1 barrel is 42 gallons. The American government adopted a standard acceptable to British and American businessmen, that is, it followed the standard set by Rockefeller family standard oil company and stipulated that 42 gallons was 1 barrel. The standard unit of crude oil measurement is "barrel" (3.7854L (US) per gallon, so it is about 1 barrel.

159 liters) has become a widely used crude oil trading unit in the world.

But "barrel" is mainly the crude oil measurement unit commonly used by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Britain and the United States and other western countries, and it is measured by volume. In China and Russian countries, the unit of measurement of crude oil is "ton" by weight. Because the density of crude oil produced in different places is different, the weight of a barrel of crude oil is different, which is about 128- 142 kg. 1 ton crude oil is about 7.0 to 7.8 barrels.

What is the daily output and consumption of crude oil in the world?

According to the data of the International Energy Agency (IEA), the global daily crude oil demand in 20 16 was 96.45 million barrels per day (1236-13.78 million tons per day). The total supply is 96.9 million barrels per day.

(1242-13.84 million tons/day). Among them, the total daily demand of crude oil in China is 6.5438+0.55 million tons/day, and the output is 550,000 tons/day, which is equivalent to the daily demand of 6.5438+0.10.9 million barrels, and the daily supply is 4 million barrels.

According to the BP World Energy Statistical Yearbook 20 17, the daily consumption of global crude oil in 20 16 was 96.56 million barrels (about1265,438+10,000 tons), up by1560,000 barrels/day, and the consumption was 20/kloc-0. The output growth rate reached a new high since 20 1 1, which was

92 150000 barrels per day (about 120 10000 tons per day), an increase of 450000 barrels per day. Among them, the daily crude oil consumption in China is 6.5438+0.59 million tons/day, and the output is 550,000 tons/day, equivalent to 6.5438+0.238 million barrels/day and 4 million barrels/day.

How many years can crude oil be mined in the world?

How many years the world crude oil can be mined is generally measured by the reserve-production ratio, that is, the ratio of the remaining proven economic recoverable reserves in that year to the output in that year. According to BP World Energy Statistical Yearbook 20 17, the proven reserves of crude oil in the world are1706.7 billion barrels, which consumes 35.2 billion barrels of crude oil every year, so the world crude oil can still be mined for 48 years.

Of course, how many years the world crude oil can be mined depends on the newly discovered economic recoverable reserves every year. If the newly discovered reserves are greater than the annual output, the reserve-production ratio will increase. In fact, in recent years, the recoverable life of world crude oil has not decreased, but is still increasing.

What are the important countries that produce and consume crude oil in the world?

According to the BP World Energy Statistical Yearbook 20 17, the main crude oil producers are Saudi Arabia 12349 kilobarrels per day, Russia1227 kilobarrels per day, the United States 12354 kilobarrels per day and Iran 4600 kilobarrels per day.

The main crude oil consuming countries are the United States 1963 1000 barrels per day, China 1238 1000 barrels per day, Japan 4037 barrels per day, India 4489 barrels per day, Russia 3203 barrels per day and Saudi Arabia 39000 barrels per day.

What is the reference scheme of OPEC crude oil price system?

The reference package of crude oil of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries includes 12 kinds of crude oil, namely: Algerian Sahara mixed oil, Angolan Gilasol, Ecuadorian Orient crude oil, Iranian heavy oil, Basra light oil, Kuwaiti export crude oil, Libyan Aisid, Nigerian Bonny light oil, Qatari Marin, Rabat light oil, Murben crude oil and Venezuelan Meire.

The package of crude oil price system mainly focuses on the purpose of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, that is, to coordinate and unify the oil policies of member countries and determine the most appropriate means to safeguard their respective and common interests. In order to ensure the interests of oil producers and consumers, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries implements the oil production quota system. In order to prevent oil prices from soaring, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries can increase oil production according to market conditions; In order to prevent oil prices from falling, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries can reduce oil production according to market conditions.

Why does the turmoil in the Middle East have a great impact on the crude oil market?

The turmoil in the Middle East has a great impact on the crude oil market, mainly because:

First of all, the Middle East has huge crude oil reserves. Saudi Arabia's crude oil reserves are as high as 266 billion barrels, accounting for 15.7% of the world's total reserves. At present, the average daily output is about120,000 barrels. Secondly, the reserves of Iraq, Iran and Kuwait are as high as 143 1 100 million barrels,157.8 billion barrels and10/0.50 billion barrels respectively.

Secondly, the output and export of crude oil in this region are also very large, and the major crude oil consumers in the world are highly dependent on it. According to the data of the monthly report of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries from June 2065438 to June 2007, the average daily output of oil-producing countries in the Middle East is 24.85 million barrels, accounting for nearly 77.7% of the output of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and more than 25.8% of the world's total supply.

Third, the region has a large excess capacity, so it has a strong ability to regulate oil prices. Saudi Arabia is currently the country with the largest excess capacity and the strongest ability to adjust the world market, so some people regard Saudi Arabia as "the central bank of the world oil market". Because of this, once the domestic situation of oil-producing countries in the Middle East is turbulent and social unrest occurs, it will have an immediate impact on the world crude oil market. For example, at the beginning of 20 12, the EU announced sanctions against Iran, which immediately led to a sharp rise in international crude oil prices. For another example, the 20 1 1 Libya war almost stopped Libya's original crude oil supply of 1.6 million barrels per day, which brought shocks to the world oil market and led to soaring oil prices. To this end, Saudi Arabia quickly increased production to make up for the vacancy caused by Libya's supply interruption, which played an important role in curbing the further surge of world oil prices.

Why is the United States so influential in the crude oil market?

The impact of the United States on the crude oil market is mainly as follows: First, the crude oil consumption of the United States is very large, reaching 1963 10000 barrels per day in 2065, with 4.38+065 million barrels per year, ranking first in the world. Second, the United States imports a lot, 9.45 million barrels a day, which has a great impact on the supply and demand of the global crude oil market. Third, the United States has a strong comprehensive national strength, has the ability and need to influence oil prices in various ways, and plays an important role in world energy politics. Fourth, the recent development of shale gas technology in North America is expected to rapidly increase the local energy supply in the United States, achieve energy self-sufficiency in the United States, and even replace Saudi Arabia as a major energy producer and exporter in 2020.

What channels does the United States have to influence international crude oil prices?

There are many ways for the United States to influence international oil prices, including but not limited to the following:

First, the United States has established a sound strategic reserve and commercial reserve system, as well as a regular release mechanism of inventory data, and established a joint use mechanism of strategic reserves based on the International Energy Agency.

Second, the United States has established a developed energy financial market system, and its oil futures price has become the vane of the world oil market.

Third, the United States has powerful multinational oil companies and a large number of small and medium-sized oil companies, which laid the foundation for the development of the oil industry.

Editor Weng Jianping of Qihe. com Research Center

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