The impact of rising oil prices
The sharp rise in international oil prices has had a great impact on the world economy. Wolfensohn, President of the World Bank, pointed out that every year when the crude oil price in the international market rises by 10 USD/barrel, the world economic growth rate will drop by 0.5 percentage points, among which developing countries will drop by 0.75 percentage points.
The impact of the rise in international oil prices on China's economy is manifested in two aspects: the direct impact is the increase in foreign exchange expenditure and the decrease in net exports, which in turn reduces the growth rate of GDP and drives up prices. The indirect impact is mainly manifested in the potential danger of product export decline: First, the products with oil as the main fuel and raw material face the potential danger of export decline due to the rising production cost and declining competitiveness. Second, export-oriented countries have difficulties in balance of payments due to rising oil prices, thus reducing their import capacity.
The rise in international oil prices will also have a greater impact on China's energy policy, mainly as follows:
High oil prices have prompted people to choose alternative energy sources. Due to the rigidity of consumption, clean coal, natural gas, new energy and renewable energy are optional varieties, which can promote the optimization of energy structure to a certain extent, but the leap-forward development of energy structure is bound to increase the cost of energy supply system.
Because the oil price is at a high level, oil consumers must take measures to save and replace oil, which has a positive effect on promoting energy efficiency and saving oil resources.
High oil prices have prompted countries around the world to further enhance their understanding of the importance of oil resources and strengthen exploration and development. Therefore, the competitive environment for China Petroleum Company to "go global" will be more intense, with increased operational risks and rising costs.
High oil prices have increased China's oil reserves and greatly increased the cost of the reserves. Every time the oil price rises 10 USD/barrel, the purchase expenditure of reserve oil may increase by hundreds of millions of dollars, and the oil price is higher than the general price expectation, which brings certain difficulties to China in increasing its oil reserves.
Multi-pronged positive response
In the face of rising international oil prices, we should take various measures to actively respond:
First, improve the efficiency of oil utilization and save oil resources; Vigorously develop and popularize oil as an alternative energy source to reduce the dependence of the national economy on oil.
Second, strengthen domestic oil exploration and development, increase domestic oil supply and reduce dependence on international oil.
Third, diversify oil imports to reduce oil price fluctuations caused by the regional situation.
Fourth, accelerate the implementation of the "going out" strategy, actively participate in international oil and gas exploration and development, strive to master more international oil and gas resources, and improve the ability to resist the risk of high oil prices.
5. Import oil in various ways, give consideration to spot trade and futures trade, and stabilize the price of imported oil.
Six, the establishment of domestic oil futures market, participate in international oil futures trading, improve the status and influence in international oil pricing.
Seven, speed up the construction of the national petroleum reserve system and petroleum safety emergency system, encourage and support enterprises to carry out commercial reserves, and enhance the ability of enterprises to resist risks.
Eight, accelerate the reform of the oil industry system, and gradually build an oil market system, and gradually form a unified and standardized market mechanism with orderly competition. (Gao Shixian, Associate Research Fellow, Energy Research Institute, National Development and Reform Commission)