How much is the price of steel today?
Steel price: the average price of 20mmHRB400E rebar in 24 major domestic markets is 3884 yuan/ton, which is 1 1 yuan/ton lower than the previous trading day; The average price of 4.75 hot rolled coil in 24 major domestic markets is 3868 yuan/ton, and the average price of 14-20mm medium plate in 23 major domestic markets is 3808 yuan.
Is the price of 202 1 steel expected to be lowered?
In 2020, the domestic steel market price will be first suppressed and then raised, and the average price will move down; Supply and demand are booming, and the overall situation is low before and high after.
In terms of variety structure, in the first half of 2020, the price of outstanding talents is stronger than that of plates, and the price of raw materials is weaker than that of finished products. In the second half of the year, the situation is just the opposite.
In terms of supply and demand balance, it is estimated that in 2020, China's pig iron output will increase by about 5.0% year-on-year, and crude steel output will increase by 5.3% year-on-year. In terms of profit, it fluctuates greatly throughout the year, which is high before the hot coil and low after the hot coil. In terms of inventory, the average social inventory has increased significantly compared with last year. Recently, the speed of going to the warehouse is very fast, and the function of the reservoir is revived. Taking into account the changes in the inventory of the whole society, it is estimated that the consumption of crude steel in China will increase by nearly 8% year-on-year in 2020.
In terms of import and export, China's net imports of steel billets and pig iron increased by nearly 20 million tons year-on-year, showing obvious changes compared with previous years. It is estimated that China's steel exports will reach 54 million tons in 2020, down by about 16% year-on-year. For some time this year, China's steel imports were significantly higher than steel exports, mainly due to the good results achieved in domestic epidemic prevention and control. The change of import and export volume is also a big disturbance factor next year.
In terms of raw materials, the supply and demand of coke will be tight in 2020, and capacity will be reduced in the second half of the year. Inventory dropped sharply compared with last year, and the price was first suppressed and then raised; The gap between supply and demand of iron ore has narrowed, with low before supply and high after supply.
Downstream, the consumption of real estate, automobiles and four major white goods is obviously improving, which has promoted the recovery of the domestic market. The liquidity is relatively loose and the money supply continues to increase, which provides support for the overall price sustainability.
Looking forward to 20021,she thinks that the leading driving force of domestic steel market will shift from supply to demand.
Macroscopically, the vaccine is gradually landing, and the global demand recovery is expected; China's monetary policy will be more flexible and accurate; It is predicted that in 20021year, China's GDP will increase by about 8.2%, fixed assets investment will increase by about 6.3%, and consumption will increase by about 10%.
In the steel market, it is predicted that China pig iron will increase by about 2.3% in 20021year, with a net new production capacity of about 44 million tons, and the output will affect about 20 million tons. The supply of crude steel will increase by about 3.4%, and the overall apparent consumption of steel will increase by about 2.7% year-on-year. The supply and demand of iron ore changed from tight balance to loose, and the price was high before and then low; The supply and demand of coke increased, and the price fluctuated widely at a high level; Scrap steel is still in a tight balance between supply and demand.
Finally, she made an overall forecast for the steel market of 202 1. The growth rate of domestic steel supply may be greater than the growth rate of consumption; With the recovery of overseas consumption and investment, overseas demand for steel products will change from indirect export to direct export. The import of scrap steel is open, replacing some semi-finished products in the import market. On the whole, the average price of steel products moved up in the whole year, and the price index of General Steel rose by 5-7%, and the enterprise benefits maintained this year's level.
Roughly, what is the price of a ton of steel today? Is it expected that the price of steel will be lowered in 20021year? The relevant content will take you here.