1. Analysis of supply and demand situation of hybrid maize seeds

Statistical data analysis:

In 2008, the national seed production area was 30 1 10,000 mu.

The output of seed production is 65.438+0.02 billion kg.

The effective inventory is 6 1 10,000 kg.

In 2009, the amount of available seeds was 65.438+0.63 billion kg.

The planned planting area is 439 million mu.

The seed demand is11100,000 kg.

The remaining species is 530 million kilograms.

The supply and demand of hybrid corn seeds in the coming year will be the same as that in 2007-08, with supply exceeding demand, but the situation has improved and tends to ease.

High yield seed production

In 2008, hybrid corn seed production was mainly concentrated in Gansu, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Heilongjiang and other five provinces, accounting for 76% of the country's total area. Compared with 2007, the national seed production area decreased by 440,000 mu (by 12%), but due to the better climate this year, the total seed output only decreased by 300 million kg (by 3%, equivalent to 654,380+10.00 million mu).

The planting area in the field continues to increase.

In 2008, the planting area of hybrid corn in China increased by nearly100000 mu compared with that in 2007, among which Inner Mongolia, Henan, Guizhou, Anhui, Xinjiang, Jiangsu, Guangxi and other provinces all increased by more than100000 mu, while Jilin, Liaoning and Heilongjiang were flat or slightly decreased. In 2008, the number of seeds needed also increased by 30 million kilograms.

It is estimated that the planting area of hybrid corn will be relatively stable in 2009, maintaining the planting level in 2008.

Variety demand will continue this trend in 2008.

The shortage of rural labor force, extensive planting habits are becoming more and more obvious, and the popularity of dense-tolerant varieties is greatly improved. The demand for several large varieties and newly approved regional varieties in recent years will further increase. The situation that the supply exceeds demand in the national hybrid corn seed market has improved year by year, from 900 million kilograms in 2006 and 700 million kilograms in 2007 to more than 600 million kilograms in 2008. It is estimated that the stock will drop to more than 500 million kilograms in 2009.

The market supply and demand have not reached the ideal state, and it still belongs to the situation that supply exceeds demand.

2. Market price analysis of hybrid corn seeds.

Market price of hybrid corn seeds in 2008

Through the information analysis of the observation points of the national agricultural technology extension center in the national seed market, the market price of hybrid corn seeds in 2008 was slightly higher than that in 2007, which was consistent with the forecast at the double fair in 2007. In 2008, the national hybrid corn seed market price increased slightly by 6% compared with 2007, with an average increase of 0.6 yuan/kg.

The price of hybrid corn seeds in Sichuan, Chongqing, Hubei, Yunnan, Guizhou and other places decreased by about 5%, about 0.6-0.8 yuan/kg; The price of hybrid seeds in Gansu, Ningxia, Shanxi, Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia is flat; The price of hybrid corn seeds in Jiangsu, Shandong, Hebei, Henan and other regions rose by 5%, about 0.4 yuan/kg; The price of hybrid corn in Jilin, Liaoning, Shaanxi, Guangxi and other places rose by about 10%, about 0.8 yuan/kg.

Market price trend of hybrid corn seeds in 2009

In recent years, the competition in the seed environment market is fierce, and the price of hybrid corn seeds is generally low. In 2009, the situation of seed supply exceeding demand will be alleviated to a certain extent. It is expected that the purchase price of seeds will generally rise and the market price will rise.

3. Seed production area and stock of hybrid corn under ideal conditions:

The national seed production area is 3.7-3.8 million mu, and the stock is 250-300 million Jin.