After the last oil price adjustment, the oil price has dropped, but it is still on the high side. It remains to be seen whether the next step will continue to fall.

It is officially announced that domestic refined oil prices will usher in a new round of adjustment on July 12.

As long as there is no problem with international crude oil, oil prices are expected to fall for the third time.

Oil prices are forecast to fall by 260 yuan/liter.

Up to now, according to the Morning Post, the change rate of domestic crude oil is negative 4.75%. It is predicted that the oil price will drop by 260 yuan/ton, and the price can be expected. But every liter of 0.2 yuan or so, every 50 liters will be cheaper 10 yuan.

Maybe the problem of using oil will be solved.

But this is not the final price, and the specific price will be determined according to the adjustment results after July 12.

Some professionals predict that the decline may decrease next week.

However, it will still be within the scope of downward adjustment, and the oil price reduction will be relatively large this time.

Oil prices have shown a rebound trend, and the overall situation is still declining.

The specific market remains to be seen.

According to news reports, some professionals pointed out that the oil price market has been in turmoil recently. In the first one or two working days, the national crude oil price fell by 10%, but in the last two days, the crude oil price will rebound, and the increase is not low. The rebound of crude oil price will bring uncertainty to the next round of oil price reduction.

So where does the conclusion that oil prices will still be lowered come from? Although the international crude oil has a rebound trend, the overall price is still falling, so when a new round of adjustment is made, the oil price is still in a downward trend.

After this oil price adjustment, the next adjustment will be on July 26.

International crude oil appears "roller coaster"

On Tuesday, the international crude oil price fell sharply, falling below $0/00 per barrel.

However, the good times did not last long and rebounded sharply. On Thursday, international oil prices began to rebound after falling sharply for two consecutive trading days.

Investors' attention has turned to the tight supply of crude oil, but the fear of global economic recession still exists.

On Tuesday, a local court in Russia issued an order to suspend the oil transportation business of the submarine pipeline alliance for 30 days to prevent environmental pollution.

Therefore, this decision will affect Kazakhstan's oil export business.

This 1500 km, which runs through Novorossiysk wharf, oil fields along the Caspian Sea in Russia and some oil fields in Kazakhstan, is the economic lifeline of Kazakhstan's oil export.

The international situation affects oil prices.

80% of Kazakhstan's oil exports need to pass through Russian pipelines, and the annual oil transportation capacity is huge. This decision directly led to the rebound of national oil prices.

Specifically, international crude oil rose by 4.26% on Thursday, and the price was 102.73 USD/barrel.

US oil prices hit a record high on Wednesday, but hit a new low since April 1 1 day, falling 20% from March 8 and falling into a bear market. However, there are signs of continuous rebound on Thursday and Friday.

At present, the global oil price is still in the recovery stage. Due to special circumstances, there is still a big gap in global aviation consumption. At the same time, the international event Russia-Ukraine conflict has also brought pressure to global economic growth.

Because of this, it is predicted that oil consumption will also be hit in the medium and long term.

Urea is hard to rebound, and fertilizer will fall again.

Recently, affected by the decline of urea, the price of chemical fertilizer has also continued to fall.

The raw material cost of urea production is not high, the profit is considerable, and the coal price is relatively stable in the production process, which is not enough to support the excessive price.

Moreover, there is no control quantity in the early stage of urea production, and the operating rate is high and the output is large, which leads to the current oversupply and needs to release production capacity to alleviate it.

The export market of urea has also been closed, and the export is unprofitable.

Urea futures also fell sharply, until July 8, when the main futures force had fallen below 2,300 yuan per ton.

At present, the demand for chemical fertilizers is small. Even if some enterprises release production capacity, the output of urea is still too good, with only a slight increase.

To sum up, it is very difficult for urea prices to rebound.

The golden period of the next round of fertilization is from July 10 to the end of July. From January to August, the biggest use of urea is to produce compound fertilizer.

However, even if the operating rate of compound fertilizer is good, the price of urea will not rise, but if the operating rate of compound fertilizer is low, the price of urea will fall further.

The key point of the decline is that exports are not open and urea prices cannot rebound.

The compound fertilizer market is not optimistic

In the case of a sharp drop in raw materials, the price of compound fertilizer has not been adjusted much, which has led to a decline in the enthusiasm of dealers for reserve.

Some time ago, many dealers have reserved a lot of compound fertilizers, and the demand for chemical fertilizers has decreased.

Therefore, the volume of new orders is more difficult.

The operating rate of compound fertilizer may decrease in a short time.

This may further affect the price of urea.

There will be several adjustments in the later period of oil price. Now the international crude oil price has rebounded, and the estimated adjustment amount may be different from the actual adjustment amount.

It depends on the rebound of crude oil, but the overall trend is downward.

The decline of urea price directly affects the whole fertilizer market.

The price of compound fertilizer with urea as the main raw material is also affected, and the price of urea may continue to fall due to the start-up cost.