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Big signal! Two major data from the central bank exceeded expectations

China's automobile production increased year-on-year in November? Sales decline continued to narrow

Market Comments

Market Comments: Index performance was choppy Surprised, big technology leads the rebound

Special equipment: Excavator sales increased by 22% in November, special bonds are issued in advance to stabilize demand next year

Futures Information

Metal energy: gold 336.78, up 0.01%; copper 48760, up 0.37%; rebar 3536, up 0.65%; rubber 13195, down 0.45%; PVC index 6580, down 0.00%; Zheng Chun 1974, down 1.79%; Shanghai Aluminum 13890, up 0.22%; Shanghai Nickel 107190, up 1.60%; Iron Ore 651.5, down 0.53%; Coke 1862, up 0.05%; Coking Coal 1243.5, up 0.04%; Crude Oil 467.6, up 0.47%;

Agricultural products: soybean oil 6370, down 0.09%; corn 1902, up 0.11%; palm oil 5900, down 0.20%; cotton 13270, up 0.49%; Zhengmai 2400, up 0.13%; sugar 5486, down 0.00%; apple 8497, up 0.99%;

Exchange rate: EUR/USD 1.1094, up 0.27%; USD/RMB 7.0271, down 0.14%; USD/HKD 7.8272, down 0.02%.

(The above futures data come from Shanghai Futures Exchange, Dalian Commodity Exchange, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange)

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1. Big signal! Two major data from the central bank exceeded expectations

On December 10, the November financial data and incremental social financing data released by the central bank showed that the two major data exceeded market expectations:

The scale of social financing The increase was 1.75 trillion yuan, expected to be 1.5 trillion yuan, and the previous value was 618.9 billion yuan. The month-on-month increase was 728.7 billion yuan, and the year-on-year increase was 138.7 billion yuan.

New RMB loans were 1.39 trillion yuan, compared with the expected 1.2 trillion yuan, and the previous value was 661.3 billion yuan. It increased by 1.13 trillion yuan month-on-month and 150.1 billion yuan year-on-year.

In addition, the balance of narrow money (M1) was 56.25 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, and the growth rate was 0.2 and 2 percentage points higher than the end of last month and the same period last year respectively. The growth rate of broad money (M2) fell by 0.2 percentage points month-on-month to 8.2%.

Comment: New credit data exceeded expectations. On the one hand, from the supply side, this is inseparable from the central bank guiding banks to increase credit; on the other hand, from the demand side, new credit in November The recovery shows that the current financing needs of the real economy are not as pessimistic as the market imagined, and some good signs are emerging. It is worth noting that since 1996, there has been a high positive correlation between the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index and the year-on-year growth rate of M1. Data shows that since July this year, the growth rate of M1 has been in the bottoming stage, and now it has bottomed out and rebounded. This impact on the market should be positive.

(Investment consultant? Cai Jin? Registered investment consultant certificate number: S0260611090020)

2. China’s automobile production increased year-on-year in November, and the sales decline continued to narrow

< p>On December 10, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (hereinafter referred to as "China Association of Automobile Manufacturers") released the "Economic Operation of the Automobile Industry in November 2019" and disclosed that in November, China's automobile production and sales completed 2.593 million vehicles and 2.457 million vehicles respectively. Month-on-month (compared to the previous month) increases of 13% and 7.6% respectively; output increased by 3.8% year-on-year, and sales decreased by 3.6% year-on-year.

Even on a year-on-year basis, the decline in China's automobile sales has continued to narrow since August. The year-on-year sales decline in November was 0.5 percentage points narrower than the 4% decline in the previous month.

According to conference data, from January to November, automobile production and sales completed 23.038 million units and 23.11 million units respectively. Production and sales fell by 9% and 9.1% respectively year-on-year. The decline in production and sales was narrower than that in January to October. 1.4 and 0.6 percentage points.

China Automobile Association analyzed that judging from the completion of production and sales data in November, production and sales continued to rebound, with production and sales returning to a relatively high level of about 2.5 million vehicles. In particular, production showed positive growth year-on-year. On the one hand, it reflects that after continuously reducing inventory levels, companies have begun to replenish inventory and the production rhythm has recovered; on the other hand, it also reflects that companies have restored their confidence in the future market.

Specifically, the decline in passenger car sales continued to narrow. In November, the production and sales of passenger cars were 2.163 million units and 2.057 million units respectively, both reaching the highest monthly levels this year. Production and sales increased by 11.6% and 6.7% month-on-month respectively, output increased by 1.9% year-on-year, and sales fell by 5.4% year-on-year, and the decline was 0.4 percentage points smaller than the previous month.

The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said that although the decline in my country's automobile production and sales has continued to narrow since the fourth quarter, the overall market recovery has been slow and consumer confidence is still insufficient.

Comments: Judging from automobile production and sales data and the analysis of the China Automobile Association, although automobile production has rebounded and the sales decline has begun to narrow, the overall market recovery is slow and consumer confidence is still insufficient. This news has a neutral impact on automobile stocks, but some auto parts stocks in the automobile industry chain are expected to begin to recover as automobile production picks up.

(Investment Consultant? Cai Jin? Registered Investment Consultant Certificate No.: S0260611090020)

Market Comments

1. Market Comments: Index performance was calm, big Technology leads the rebound

Both the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets opened lower. They were weak and volatile in early trading. They bottomed out around noon and rebounded. In the end, the three major indexes collectively turned red, showing that Shanghai was weak and Shenzhen was strong. Although the index performance was calm, theme stocks performed extremely actively: consumer electronics, wireless headsets, semiconductor chips and other conceptual sectors continued to be strong, leading the direction of the market. Stocks on the Science and Technology Innovation Board have collectively strengthened, driven by Huaxing Yuanchuang's daily limit for two consecutive days. Looking at the market, 49 companies hit the daily limit today and 2 companies hit the daily limit. Optics and optoelectronics, semiconductors and components, other electronics and other industry sectors were among the top gainers, while aquaculture, hotels and catering, banking and other industry sectors were among the top losers. As of the close, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index rose 0.10%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.40%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.75%. The trading volume in the two cities was basically the same as yesterday.

November CPI was announced on Tuesday, which was as high as 4.5%, slightly exceeding market expectations. However, the market only made slight adjustments, and the index rebounded after hitting the bottom. The recent A-share market has been particularly resilient, whether it is suffering from bad news or the impact of the slump in the external market. It is strong whether it should be weak or not. In addition, northbound funds continued to buy after MSCI's last expansion this year, with net inflows for 19 consecutive trading days, setting a record for the longest continuous net buying of northbound funds in two years. Foreign investors used real money to show their optimism for A shares. The index has been moving forward in small steps for 7 consecutive positive days. The index fluctuations are not large, but many stocks and sectors are very strong, and the structural market trend is obvious. In the short term, although technology stocks will still be the focus of attention in the medium and long term in the future, many individual stocks and sectors have already experienced great gains. In the later period, attention should be paid to differentiation and it is not advisable to blindly chase the rise. Investors can also plan in advance for high-quality products with high prosperity and low valuation in the industry, such as the new energy automobile industry chain, etc. In terms of operation, the main focus is to buy low, control positions, and focus on seizing opportunities in individual stocks and sectors.

(Investment consultant Zeng Zilei, registered investment consultant certificate number: S0260613090015)

2. Special equipment: Excavator sales increased by 22% in November, and special bonds were issued in advance to stabilize demand for next year.

According to industry statistics from the China Construction Machinery Industry Association, the 25 main engine manufacturing companies included in the statistics from January to November 2019 sold a total of 215,538 units of various excavating machinery products, a year-on-year increase of 15.0%. In November 2019, a total of 19,316 units of various excavating machinery products were sold, a year-on-year increase of 21.7%.

Investment advisory comments: With the approval of the State Council, the Ministry of Finance has issued in advance a limit of 1 trillion yuan for some new special debts in 2020. The issuance of special bonds in advance will help improve the prosperity of infrastructure-related industries. , increasing the demand for construction machinery. Under the premise of policies supporting infrastructure construction, excavator sales are expected to maintain steady growth next year; after the reshuffle of the industry downturn, the construction machinery market concentration has further increased, the share of domestic leaders has steadily increased, and machinery and equipment have shown a situation of strong supply and demand. Investors are advised Pay attention to construction machinery and equipment leaders on dips.

(Investment consultant Zeng Zilei registered investment consultant certificate number: S0260613090015)