Taking wheat as an example, it can be said that wheat is the only variety that has kept rising since 2008, and it has also performed well in the past two years. But after March, wheat suddenly fell twice.

It once fell below the important mark of 1.6 yuan/kg, which made the market panic. After a short period of stabilization, it fell again, and the quotations in some areas have fallen below 1.5 yuan/kg, which is comparable to the "earthquake-level" decline in the wheat market.

After the wheat crash, corn began to keep up with the pace of wheat.

Although the decline of corn is not so fierce, it has been falling and its center of gravity has been falling.

Obviously, the market selling pressure has dropped, and the surplus grain is coming to an end. It is the time when corn stopped falling and rose, but the price did not rise and fell, which also made the market at a loss.

Soybean meal fell even more. Although the price of soybean meal rose irrationally last year, it was inevitable to fall back, but this almost "cliff-like" decline also surprised the market.

Food prices have been falling across the board, and one of the reasons is the sluggish demand.

First of all, the year after is the off-season of demand, and the decline in consumption is normal.

Secondly, after more than three years of epidemic, income has declined, consumption power has weakened and demand has been weak.

Weak demand is indeed an important factor, but its impact is more long-term trend than short-term sudden.

On the one hand, the sluggish demand is not only depressed now, but also weakened in the previous two years. This year's sluggish demand is more a continuation of the weak demand in the previous two years. The off-season after the year is not a rare phenomenon, but the norm.

On the other hand, although the supply side has risen, it is also a trend, not a sudden surge, so it reflects that the market is more of a trend impact than a sudden one.

Judging from the logic of the recent weakening of food prices across the board, this decline is more related to the panic caused by recent international market emergencies.

Since the outbreak of banking in Europe and America, it has caused extreme panic in the market. Although the predictions of many institutions are not enough to trigger a bigger financial crisis, the market risk aversion has surged, and negative emotions have spread to commodities, leading to a continuous decline in global food prices.

Some time ago, the price of corn in the United States kept falling, even lower than that in Ukraine, while international wheat also hit new lows and soybeans kept falling. In addition to the expected increase in the supply side, the negative sentiment caused by the banking crisis has also become an important driver of the recent decline in food prices.

With the fall of international food prices, the window of import opportunities opens.

It can be seen that the amount of grain imported from China has increased significantly recently. Up to now, in less than half a month, China has purchased more than 3 million tons of American corn, and the number of wheat, soybean and sorghum has also increased.

With the surge in the number of imported grains, the bearish mood in the market is high. Although the pattern of strong supply and weak demand is established, the emotional effect will often amplify the bearish sentiment in the market, and eventually make the futures market take the lead in falling, which has become an important "culprit" that triggered the current round of food price decline across the board.

However, according to the predictions of many institutions, the current crisis is not enough to trigger a systematic financial crisis, but the strengthening of risk aversion and shrinking demand may hit the trend of commodities to some extent.

However, in the follow-up, the space for the Fed to raise interest rates further is very limited, which means that the possibility of weakening the US dollar index is increasing, and the suppression effect of a strong dollar on commodities will be weakened.

Then, when will this wave of decline in the domestic market improve?

With the gradual weakening of emotional influence, the final price fluctuation will return to the supply and demand side, and then the supporting role of the bottom will begin to appear. However, it is difficult to reverse the pattern of strong supply and weak demand in a short time, so when to stop falling and pick up, I am afraid we have to wait for the guidance of demand.