The same is true of the market. If an unfamiliar market dares to invest money, it is equivalent to lending money to a stranger. Therefore, you have to have a special understanding of the market, and it is possible to make huge profits if you eat very thoroughly. You should be very clear about how much a wave of market has gone and where the next resistance is.
The induction of the market first depends on how the top and bottom of the market are formed. For example, the top of agricultural products is hard to find, so there is no need to touch the top in a hurry. You can do it for a month when you are less, and for three months when you are more. At the bottom, at least three months, at most six months. When it is low, it is also bought when it falls, and it will be flat when it rises. This short-term operation can also make money.
After two or three months, you won't be in a hurry to find long-term opportunities. For example, after six months at the bottom of last year, if you have been holding a long line, you will be tortured to death and your mentality will be bad. Or simply don't do it for two or three months and look for opportunities in other varieties. But 70% of the black top and black bottom end in three days, sometimes even one day, so you must find something wrong and run quickly. In a word, we should summarize the market operation of each variety. The top and bottom of each market are different. Open a few pictures, take a pen and read slowly, and you will see your character.
The second is the judgment of maximum fluctuation and minimum fluctuation. Maximum volatility refers to monthly volatility, quarterly volatility and annual volatility. What is used in March and April every year, what is used in May and June, and how many points there are from this consolidation area to that consolidation area, we must remember clearly.
Take soybean meal as an example, each round of small wave band is 200 points, which seems to fluctuate from 2250 to 2450; The larger band is 400 points, from 2300 to 2700; The average annual increase of a wave of market is around 1000 points.
The third is the induction of seasonal fluctuations. May is short and September is long. Because May is the time when all the bad news comes out, the import rate of the United States, the arrival rate of Hong Kong and the output of South America are certain, and the consumption of pigs, calves and lambs can't come up, so we should short. In September, almost all the imports from the United States were used. Pigs, calves and lambs have all grown up, and even poor demand will become high-priced points.
The seasonal peak is almost always in July, August and September, because this is the peak demand season. Enterprises should be prepared to import in large quantities from abroad in May, June and July, and it takes time to arrive in Hong Kong and deliver, so they should be prepared for the demand in July, August and September.
Eat these thoroughly, and you will reap huge profits, not because people are cruel and greedy, but because you really eat these thoroughly. The market is so big, you won't stop playing because you want to compound interest by 30%. When you step on the right market, you must thoroughly understand the market and prepare for the next wave of losses. This one earns 30%, and the next one loses 30%. This earns more than ten times, puts forward most of the profits, and keeps 20% of the funds for reuse, even if it loses money, it still makes money.
When there is a big market to make money, we must grasp the market to the end. Don't think that 30% or 50% of the tasks are over today. If you don't eat thoroughly this time, the next market may take a year or two.
Take grain as an example. The output of grain is determined by production costs and means of production, so it often fluctuates. If this wave holds up at 3000, it is likely to be between 3000 and 3500.
Generally speaking, it is a four-year cycle. This is a grain production cycle, and production will be reduced once every four years. If this wave of market is now adjusted, then wait for the break before considering bearish. After a month, the market will not look good. The fundamentals of agricultural products often change in half a month, and then when the market goes down, bad news is flying all over the sky, and market information changes faster than the market.
Therefore, as long as it does not conform to the trading system, it will not be done. Agricultural products have obvious periodicity, and seasonal changes are regular from key price points, high points and low points.
So how do you define the time period, which is called short-term with one month and long-term with one month? Actually, it's not like this. The futures market is very fast, sometimes the market goes for more than a month, so don't fix the time, but fix the income.
If the short-term profit is huge, if it is more than twice, you must reduce your position. This refers not to the total amount of funds, but to the funds in use. It is impossible to earn twice the total capital with a 5% position. Earning 30% with 10% funds in just one week is profiteering. At this time, remember not to add positions crazily.
After the breakthrough, don't add the breakthrough unless the consolidation is formed again and the graph converges. You can add more positions from the big cycle and less positions from the small cycle. If you add positions through the daily line, you can add positions of 100 lots, 50 lots through the 4-hour K-line chart and 20 lots through the 2-hour K-line chart. The shorter the time period, the smaller the proportion of adding positions, because the longer the period, the higher the accuracy.