After the minutes were published, the yield of US 10-year treasury bonds fell by 4 basis points to 1.268% in the short term. The US dollar index DXY continued to fall, and the short-term decline expanded by 30 points to 93.02; The three major US stock indexes rose in the short term, and the Nasdaq rose once, but the three major stock indexes accelerated their decline in the late session. At the close, the Nasdaq index fell 0.89%, while the Dow and the Standard & Poor's 500 index fell more than 1%. Bitcoin reported $46,000/piece, up nearly 3% that day.
According to the minutes of the meeting, the participating officials discussed the progress of asset purchase, including FOMC's realization of full employment and price stability, and also considered how to adjust asset purchase when economic conditions are met. Officials said that the Fed may reach the threshold of reducing its bond purchases this year. "Looking ahead, most participants pointed out that if the economy develops according to their expectations, they think it may be appropriate to start slowing down the pace of asset purchases this year. The economy has reached the inflation target and is close to satisfaction with the progress of employment growth. "
However, members of the Committee generally believe that employment has not yet reached the "substantial further progress" standard set by the Federal Reserve before considering raising interest rates.
The minutes show that there are differences of opinion at the decision-making level of the Federal Reserve. Some officials even worry that if the number of cases in COVID-19 continues to rise and may curb economic growth, inflation may fall back to a downward trend.
Several officials said that if the spread of the mutant strain in the United States worsens, they may change their stance on monetary policy. Officials judge that the current economic outlook is "very uncertain", and the variation of COVID-19 Delta and inflation pose challenges. Some participants suggested that since the recent high inflation data may be more persistent than expected, it is prudent to prepare to "start to slow down" the pace of asset purchases relatively quickly. Several other officials believe that "for some time to come" may not decrease.
Several participants also pointed out that reducing the scale of asset purchases does not mean tightening the stance of monetary policy, but only means that monetary policy will be further relaxed at a slower pace. This is in line with market expectations. The market thinks that the Fed will begin to shrink its watch soon, but it still thinks that it will not raise interest rates for at least the next year or so. The pricing of futures contracts linked to the Fed's benchmark interest rate shows that the possibility of raising interest rates in June 5438+065438+ 10 is about 50%, and the possibility of raising interest rates in June 5438+February is 69%.
The minutes also show that some participants believe that the code reduction will depend on the economic situation, and the code reduction action has nothing to do with the time of raising interest rates. Some participants also expressed concern that maintaining a highly relaxed financial environment may further increase the risks of the financial system.
Chris anstey, an analyst, said that if we consider that the economic data we have obtained has been weakening since the Fed meeting in July, there is certainly no reason to support the austerity plan announced by the Fed in September. There is no hint in the meeting minutes. If they want to start to reduce the scale of debt purchases in June 5438+February, they need to announce it at the meeting on June 5438+065438+1October 3.